Diff thread Nov 23 to Dec 7 Set up stage- Picks CLOSED!

[notlist3d]

Previous Difficulty Thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1244195.0

I will be helping with this one and trying to organize picks once open.  Philipma still has ultimate say.

Going to keep the changes from previous difficulty thread as they seem to work no need to change them again:

Pick times are block 600 to block 1200
Ranges picked are .10% ranges for example:

so  -0   gives you 0 to  -0.9
and +0 gives you 0 to +0.9

Once picks open at block 600 feel free to pick as high or low as you want:

-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        -2.00 to -2.09
-1.9  =        -1.90 to -1.99
-1.8  =        -1.80 to -1.89
-1.7  =        -1.70 to -1.79
-1.6  =        -1.60 to -1.69
-1.5  =        -1.50 to -1.59
-1.4  =        -1.40 to -1.49
-1.3  =        -1.30 to -1.39
-1.2  =        -1.20 to -1.29
-1.1  =        -1.10 to -1.19>>>>>>>>>> philipma1957
-1.0  =        -1.00 to -109
-0.9  =        -0.90 to -0.99
-0.8  =        -0.80 to -0.89
-0.7  =        -0.70 to -0.79
-0.6  =        -0.60 to -0.69
-0.5   =      -0.50 to -0.59
-0.4   =      -0.40 to -0.49
-0.3   =      -0.30 to -0.39
-0.2   =      -0.20 to -0.29
-0.1   =      -0.10 to -0.19
-0.0   =      -0.00 to  -0.09


 0.0   =      +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1  =     +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2  =     +0.20 to +0.29
+0.3  =     +0.30 to +0.39
+0.4  =     +0.40 to +0.49
+0.5  =      +0.50 to +0.59
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =

And above!

[1714000563]

1714000563

[1714000563]

1714000563

[1714000563]

1714000563

[notlist3d]

From Block 600 put in your guess.  Please make sure it's not taken already, if it is you will be given closest to pick open at time I fix it(Unless you catch it first and correct it yourself).  Upon block to 1200 the period for picks is over and no more will be accepted.

Newbie accounts will be closely monitored.  If it seems anyone is trying to game the system with low level accounts the right is reserved to restrict to higher level, and remove ones that seem suspicious. Hopefully this will not be needed.

All speculation is welcome it is meant to be a fun thread.  Please keep it fun and civil .  And good luck to all!

[notlist3d]

Picks during this period:

+5.1    = Biodom
+6.0    = Last of the V8s (member registered March 15)
+6.6    = Tmdz (Jr Member - registered October 21)
+7.7    = ezeminer
+7.8    = VirosaGITS
+8.1    = wlefeve
+8.3    = The Young Turk
+8.4    = keystroke
+8.5    = valkir
+8.6    = Herbpean
+8.8    = tss
+9.2    = edonkey
+9.3    = Lituation
+9.4    = UfoRia (member registered September 22)
+9.5    = Amph
+9.7    = ailikun
+9.8    = vortexz
+9.9    = mikestang
+10.0  = Tupsu
+10.1  = zebedee
+10.2  = cakir
+10.3  = Finksy
+10.4  = adaseb
+10.6  = DanDan
+10.8  = ingiltere
+10.9  = alh
+11.0  = mavericklm
+11.1  = Quickseller
+11.2  = dukeneptun
+11.3  = RichBC
+11.4  = artibg (member resistered December 03, 2013)
+11.5  = needmoney
+11.6  = Lboss
+11.7  = Notlist3d
+12.2  = philipma1957
+12.3  = EternalWingsofGod
+12.5  = indiemax
+13.3   = d57heinz

[philipma1957]

Thank you. Much appreciated break for me.

[notlist3d]

Thank you. Much appreciated break for me.

Not a problem at all! Just let me know if you see anything needing changes. 

And as said above I am helping monitor this thread.  If you want to thank people Phil and suchmoon are the ones that deserve the thanks!

[suchmoon]

If you're looking at bitcoinwisdom:

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,053,971,267 (+10.08%)

and feel terrified... well you should be   but also please keep in mind that bitcoinwisdom seems to be doing a simple 2016-block average for its estimate, so at this time it's including that massive mountain of hashrate from the previous cycle. However if you look at the 504-block average:

6 blocks: 58.7 minutes

It's 1.3/60 = only about 2% above the target 10 minute/block rate.

[notlist3d]

If you're looking at bitcoinwisdom:

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,053,971,267 (+10.08%)

and feel terrified... well you should be   but also please keep in mind that bitcoinwisdom seems to be doing a simple 2016-block average for its estimate, so at this time it's including that massive mountain of hashrate from the previous cycle. However if you look at the 504-block average:

6 blocks: 58.7 minutes

It's 1.3/60 = only about 2% above the target 10 minute/block rate.

I like your description much more that is for sure.  Bitwisdom scares the crap out of me if we could do 2 big ones in a row.  With such a big hashrate overall I was betting we would not see big jumps like we did last period.

But I was wrong.  Hopefully it goes down though.

[HerbPean]

bitcoinwisdom is highly influence by the last difficulty. Since the last one was a big jump, his estimate is pretty much wrong. It'll correct himself unless someone throw a ton of hashrate again.

[Lituation]

When will picks open exactly? Is it when we see "After 1200 blocks" in adjust time? Right now 1887 blocks left.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,266,763,525 (+10.37%)
Adjust time: After 1887 Blocks, About 12.8 days

[suchmoon]

When will picks open exactly? Is it when we see "After 1200 blocks" in adjust time? Right now 1887 blocks left.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   80,266,763,525 (+10.37%)
Adjust time: After 1887 Blocks, About 12.8 days

Picks open at 600 blocks completed and close at 1200 blocks completed in the current difficulty adjustment cycle.

There are 2016 blocks in each cycle, so that means picks open when Bitcoinwisdom shows

"Adjust time: After 1416 Blocks"

and close at

"Adjust time: After 816 Blocks"

[Lituation]

Oh, I guess I'm wrong. Nice to know that, thanks suchmoon.
We have still 471 blocks to go, that means 3-3.5 days approximately. I should check the thread again at weekend.

[philipma1957]

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138   

[notlist3d]

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138   

I like the real number much more then the bitwisdom number.  It still is very ugly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,401,658,248 (+10.56%)
Adjust time:    After 1867 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):    548,401,065 GH/s

[adaseb]

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138   

Today only ended up being +7% but after all the difficulty already adjusted yesterday by 10% so I guess +7% still is considered high.

[notlist3d]

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138   

Today only ended up being +7% but after all the difficulty already adjusted yesterday by 10% so I guess +7% still is considered high.

I like 5 or less myself.  I did most of my ROI at 5 as high side..... but it might be changing and I might need to chance some excel sheets I have.  Kinda using this week as another idication if it slowing down or if it continues.

Worst case is Bitmain, Avalon, and Bitfury are all currently pumping out gear.  Not sure if that is happening or true.   But there are still some like SP-50 and that B-11 I think it is that I don't think we have seen.  So it could be even worse I guess.

Good news is we were pretty low for a long time, so a few high ones will not kill my ROI.  But if it becomes normal it's sure going to hurt my bottom line.

[philipma1957]

today is about 6.5%

https://blockchain.info/blocks

385187 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 22:45:16

385041 (Main Chain)   2015-11-24 00:00:20


147 blocks in the time we should make 138    

Today only ended up being +7% but after all the difficulty already adjusted yesterday by 10% so I guess +7% still is considered high.

I like 5 or less myself.  I did most of my ROI at 5 as high side..... but it might be changing and I might need to chance some excel sheets I have.  Kinda using this week as another idication if it slowing down or if it continues.

Worst case is Bitmain, Avalon, and Bitfury are all currently pumping out gear.  Not sure if that is happening or true.   But there are still some like SP-50 and that B-11 I think it is that I don't think we have seen.  So it could be even worse I guess.

Good news is we were pretty low for a long time, so a few high ones will not kill my ROI.  But if it becomes normal it's sure going to hurt my bottom line.

if you count the last diff jump 3 straight 10+ would get us to 88 bill diff that would make up for the price jump from 235 to 325. I do not rule it out. The builders of gear can simply lower prices a little at a time and I think people will buy into it.

I max at  6kwatts or 2 s-7's and 4 avalon 6's .  more due to heat issues then any other reason

[EternalWingsofGod]

This round will be interesting since difficulty is maintaining itself above 10%
Presuming that their is not a real price increase and mining units stay operational I expect it to end around this range or go up a bit more.
That said we still have at least a few more rounds before we start to near 100,000,000,000 and that's food for thought.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty: 80,772,480,881 (+11.07%)  
Adjust time: After 1861 Blocks, About 12.4 days  

[UfoRia]

Interesting, all the new 16nm tapeouts, the weird huge drops/rises on the hash rate, the massive difficulty increases that seem to be upon us and the sudden bottom resistance being met on the coin.

Should be an interesting next four weeks....


Ufo

[Tmdz]

Another 10% to get us around 80 B difficulty would not be unusual by any means, hardware is getting pushed out and set up.  But All these new batches of antminers are still yet to be received, I think about 3 batches are in the works still.  So im not sure how much addition hash this will equal, big jumps could be expected once all that get shipped out.

[UfoRia]

Buy coins, hodl the ones you have and don't buy miners.


disclaimer: I am a miner and wish I would have not bought my 45 day late ant s7's B1's.