Bitcoin and Hype Cycle

[neptop]

I'll make it short and just throw in a link.

It something I suggested when everyone was talking about the bursting bubble: What comes afterwords? Well, since the price seems to settle and we aren't in an endless fall anymore I wonder when the "Slope of Enlightenment" sets in and how long it will take until we reach the "Plateau of productivity".

My guess (and it's really just a guess of someone without any background on economics) is that this will take a few more years. I think the market will continue to grow, as it always did (regardless of prices or users jumping in and out) and this will cause hoarders to buy stuff. I consider myself to be a hoarder and there are more and more interesting products coming along and I buy more often, especially now when it is Christmas time. At least that's true for me as an early adopter, someone who is using Bitcoin because he likes the concept, ease of use, decentralization - well a piece of freedom. I think it's also nice for merchants, who gain customers just because of offering stuff for BTCs. At least I am such a customer, but I guess that's a story for another forum.

Anyways, what are your thought son this?

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[geek-trader]

I suspect bitcoin will have a few more bubbles rise and burst before we settle into the the "Slope of Enlightenment" and "Plateau of productivity".

Right now we have Max Keiser going nuts on twitter pushing bicoin all of a sudden, plus the Wired article hit just before the (american) long holiday weekend.

I predict a bubble next week. 

[ElectricMucus]

I suspect bitcoin will have a few more bubbles rise and burst before we settle into the the "Slope of Enlightenment" and "Plateau of productivity".

Right now we have Max Keiser going nuts on twitter pushing bicoin all of a sudden, plus the Wired article hit just before the (american) long holiday weekend.

I predict a bubble next week.  

The first cycle has to reach the the Plateau of Productivity before a second Cycle can begin.

We are still approaching the Through of Disillusionment, although some people are already there. Since you made this statement you aren't one of them.
Or did you forget the sarcasm tags?

Note: The Through of Disillusionment is by definition a state where the press has abandoned the topic. The articles you are talking about here are the kiss and goodbye type so we are really close.

[geek-trader]

Well, *I've* certainly gone through the Trough of Disillusionment and have entered the Slope of Enlightenment.  But that's just my personal attitude.

However, I suspect bitcoin will not follow these established trends too close.  We could have another bubble any day with the right press.

I do agree that, eventually, the USD price of bitcoin will be on a more traditional path, like described in the linked article, but for now, for the next year, at least until the block reward goes down to 25 BTC, anything goes.

Hold on, it's going to be a wild ride!

[ElectricMucus]

There will be no more press after this wave. At least for a few weeks to even months. That's the whole point of the Though of Disillusionment.

[julz]

There will be no more press after this wave. At least for a few weeks to even months. That's the whole point of the Though of Disillusionment.

Someone, who has been strangely silent for a while.. at least under that alias    made that prediction before: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=29096.msg366510#msg366510

+ Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future. There's just nothing newsworthy forthcoming unless there is something scandalous that happens again, and we're just about out of interesting scandals. We've made the rounds from illegal purchasing to hacking to market failures.
  There's just nothing left to get the attention of corporate media. The fact is that no-one cares about bitcoin as a medium of exchange, except a small core constituency of idealists here on these forums. It HAD newsworthy spectacle value as prices skyrocketed and people "got rich quick," but those times are over.  There is nothing left of newsworthy value.

And this gem!

Use your imagination.  What is all of God's Hell's can you imagine anyone in the corporate media writing about bitcoin?

Bitcoin was in some of the largest financial publications in the world.  You think there's anyone left out there that gives a damn to write about it again? Why would that be, pray tell?

Please, maybe you could emulate a possible headline?

There is nothing left that's worth saying to the public about bitcoin, from the mouths of the corporate media. Period.

on July 15, 2011, 06:16:07 PM

Just because you can't think of any potential newsworthy events, that doesn't mean there aren't any.  It just means you have a limited imagination.

And what about your imagination?

I just responded to someone who took a shot and took the piss out of him easily.

C'mon everyone, try it.  Let's all use our imaginations to come up with something that might show up in THE ECONOMIST again, or THE NEW YORK POST, or TIME.  Or really any publication that has a wide audience.

Since July 15th we have had:
THE ECONOMIST: 2011-09-21  The bursting of the Bitcoin bubble
TIME: 2011-11-21 POLICY & LAW How the Internet Evolves to Overcome Censorship
plus various other complete articles or at least mentions by mainstream agencies including:
cnbc,kold,chicagotribune,huffingtonpost,newscientist,washingtonpost,npr,sydney morning herald,guardian UK, NY times ...  
(too many to list really, and a fair few non-english press hits too)
On top of that there are the myriad of tech news articles, financial/technical/personal blogs etc.

There has been a definite mixture of negative and positive slants to the stories.

Indeed - I found the strident ridiculousness of Synaptic so inspirational that I put extra effort into updating the 'Bitcoin press hits, notable sources' thread with all these 'nothings'

[ElectricMucus]

Please don't compare me to that person, he is on my shitlist, thanks.



You are right this might not be the last press wave before the through of disillusionment. I think it is.
So are you saying that the press abandoning bitcoin will never happen? If not when would that be?

[julz]

Please don't compare me to that person, he is on my shitlist, thanks.

You are right this might not be the last press wave before the though of disillusionment. I think it is though.
So are you saying that the press abandoning bitcoin will never happen? If not when would that be?

Oh.. I didn't mean that as an insult. It was a comparison of the idea, not the people!

I guess I could see the press pretty much abandoning bitcoin as a topic once it's achieved widespread mainstream use for a long time, or even just a fairly stable niche.  ie - once it's gained some sort of 'normalization' and is more or less just another economic/tech tool like online banking/email.
or alternatively - a decent while after total failure and/or replacement.

It will have a long future in academic literature (tech,economic,political) I think though - an excellent case study for students; and it's definitely cemented it's place in Internet history whatever the outcome.

[ElectricMucus]

Well according to Gartner:

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

    "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
    "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
    "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
    "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
    "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

I have to admit that according to gartner this is not always the case, I think it its likely the press will stop reporting on bitcoin once it is considered "dead".
Nevertheless the definition clearly states that if a subject is abandoned it before the recovery phase and it's mainstream adaptation.

[P4man]

I consider myself to be a hoarder and there are more and more interesting products coming along and I buy more often, especially now when it is Christmas time

I think its important to distinguish bitcoin as a store of wealth from bitcoin as a transaction facilitator.  Currently these functions are still almost completely unrelated. As a result, for now it doesnt make sense to "hoard" bitcoins, you can freely spend any bitcoin you have on anything you want to buy and just replenish your wallet the same day and continue "hoarding". So for most people there is no brake on spending bitcoins.

Now imagine a distant future where your salary is paid in bitcoins and your utility bill is due in bitcoin and most of your wealth is stored in bitcoins. If bitcoin value is rising sharply or you expect it to, then you might be very reluctant to spend your coins as you have no way to "replenish" them. That is when hoarding might become a real issue, but thats still decades away IMO.

[neptop]

Hey, I really like how this discussion remains serious.

About hoarding... Well, it's just that I like Bitcoins. I also mine, like I always did and just for fun, with about zero profit, if I would sell them. However, really nothing too serious. Just to give the card something to do, while idle and the system is actually powered on. I keep the coins or buy stuff, but I don't "pay out" in the traditional sense, because I want to actually use them - after all that's how I found this project in early 2010. That's what I meant, even if it's probably wrong to call this hoarding.

[zby]

...

Now imagine a distant future where your salary is paid in bitcoins and your utility bill is due in bitcoin and most of your wealth is stored in bitcoins. If bitcoin value is rising sharply or you expect it to, then you might be very reluctant to spend your coins as you have no way to "replenish" them. That is when hoarding might become a real issue, but thats still decades away IMO.

Oh - I love this! A clear sign that the down trend is over.

[Cluster2k]

I consider myself to be a hoarder and there are more and more interesting products coming along and I buy more often, especially now when it is Christmas time

I think its important to distinguish bitcoin as a store of wealth from bitcoin as a transaction facilitator.  Currently these functions are still almost completely unrelated. As a result, for now it doesnt make sense to "hoard" bitcoins, you can freely spend any bitcoin you have on anything you want to buy and just replenish your wallet the same day and continue "hoarding". So for most people there is no brake on spending bitcoins.

Now imagine a distant future where your salary is paid in bitcoins and your utility bill is due in bitcoin and most of your wealth is stored in bitcoins. If bitcoin value is rising sharply or you expect it to, then you might be very reluctant to spend your coins as you have no way to "replenish" them. That is when hoarding might become a real issue, but thats still decades away IMO.

I like your optimism: talking about the bitcoin future decades from now.  Three decades ago people were wetting themselves to have a home computer with 64kb of RAM.  Two decades ago few people outside of academia had heard of the Internet.  Maybe bitcoin is the next big thing, but I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it.

Hoarding isn't an issue right now as we're still in the price deflationary stage after the bubble burst.  Should the price reinflate there will once again be pressure not to spend, as a bitcoin tomorrow can buy more than a bitcoin today.  Some industries work well on this premise, such as the computer hardware industry.  But having a currency that discourages spending is an experiment I'll be watching with great interest.

[P4man]

I like your optimism: talking about the bitcoin future decades from now.

Its not a prediction, its a hypothetical to explain the problem of hoarding and why doesnt exist now. Hoarding money can only be a problem if most wealth is stored in that money or exchanging it is difficult.

Hoarding isn't an issue right now as we're still in the price deflationary stage after the bubble burst.  Should the price reinflate there will once again be pressure not to spend, as a bitcoin tomorrow can buy more than a bitcoin today.  Some industries work well on this premise, such as the computer hardware industry.  But having a currency that discourages spending is an experiment I'll be watching with great interest.

Nonsense. You can buy your bitcoins even before you purchase in btc; it doesnt matter how fast bitcoins are going up, there is no reason to avoid spending in BTC unless you have no spare dollars or other currency to replenish your btc holding; in which case, thats the real reason for not spending, not btc deflation.

[btc_artist]

Bitcoin will continue to have relatively dramatic ups and downs until their is enough volume in goods and services being traded in Bitcoin to stabilize it.

[evoorhees]

I promise there will be many bubbles as the world tries to determine the value of this technology. Each will bring wild assumptions and it will be difficult for everyone, including me, to try to keep a level head during the volatility.

The best strategy is to figure out what YOU think Bitcoins are worth, and then buy and sell accordingly. Don't worry about the price moves over days/weeks/months. Have a time horizon of one year at least.

[tvbcof]

I promise there will be many bubbles as the world tries to determine the value of this technology. Each will bring wild assumptions and it will be difficult for everyone, including me, to try to keep a level head during the volatility.

The best strategy is to figure out what YOU think Bitcoins are worth, and then buy and sell accordingly. Don't worry about the price moves over days/weeks/months. Have a time horizon of one year at least.

I theorized that there is an outside chance that BTC could be worth quite a bit to someone who needs them, and probably would be under certain plausible macro-economic scenarios.

One strategy is to double down on every price drop.  Then if there is a re-bound it need not be as high in order to at least break even.  I sort of fell into this strategy/trap.  Even though I started buying rather aggressively at $16.00, I only need about $4.00 to be back even.  And if by some miracle the Bitcoin price gets a to a certain point which is not terribly out of range of it's previous bubble high, I'm looking at going for a six-figure win.  Such a strategy takes some combination of alloy steel testicles and a decent disposable income.

[teflone]

Rally engines a go...


Commence rally..

[teflone]

We have lift off...

[kjlimo]

We have lift off...

woot!

dump

repeat!