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Author Topic: How is the current market state NOT a bubble?  (Read 2893 times)
shooter_mcgavin
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May 13, 2011, 06:50:14 PM
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For two weeks and no major reasons other than speculation, the price has gone from 2$/BTC to over 8$/BTC ....I've been on the forums for a long enough time to say that people talk more about getting rigs for mining, selling the currency for USD (equivalent), on pure speculation of the price. The actual commerce behind it isn't backing the price. I don't want Bitcoin to fail (I don't think it will in the long run) but bubbles hurt when they pop & market crashes are bad.

I don't believe 2$ to 8$ within two weeks is a healthy jump with so little to back it up. People are making such a killing in exchange rates at that point, the Bitcoin becomes the commodity itself to sell for an insane exchange rate.

If you think I've been helpful, toss me a few bitcoin -  1J2bbukPKFrwEfk4iHueKfLfFBXLSNGnTi
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kiba
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May 13, 2011, 06:51:58 PM
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When the price of bitcoin dramatically rose, prepare for the obligatory:


IT MUST BE A BUBBLE!


deadlizard
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May 13, 2011, 06:53:21 PM
 #3

bitcoin is a commodity

btc address:1MEyKbVbmMVzVxLdLmt4Zf1SZHFgj56aqg
gpg fingerprint:DD1AB28F8043D0837C86A4CA7D6367953C6FE9DC

barbarousrelic
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May 13, 2011, 06:56:08 PM
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It's not possible to know if something is a bubble before it pops, especially something anonymously traded like Bitcoin. It could be that new, enthusiastic people with lots of money to drop are discovering Bitcoin at the same rate the price is increasing.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
dissipate
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May 13, 2011, 07:00:01 PM
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It's not possible to know if something is a bubble before it pops, especially something anonymously traded like Bitcoin. It could be that new, enthusiastic people with lots of money to drop are discovering Bitcoin at the same rate the price is increasing.

Actually, some metrics can be used to detect a bubble. For instance, the U.S. housing bubble was getting obvious towards the peak because housing prices were getting ridiculously out of line with average income. What metrics one would use to detect a Bitcoin bubble, I have no idea.
dacoinminster
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May 13, 2011, 07:01:56 PM
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For two weeks and no major reasons other than speculation, the price has gone from 2$/BTC to over 8$/BTC ....I've been on the forums for a long enough time to say that people talk more about getting rigs for mining, selling the currency for USD (equivalent), on pure speculation of the price. The actual commerce behind it isn't backing the price. I don't want Bitcoin to fail (I don't think it will in the long run) but bubbles hurt when they pop & market crashes are bad.

I don't believe 2$ to 8$ within two weeks is a healthy jump with so little to back it up. People are making such a killing in exchange rates at that point, the Bitcoin becomes the commodity itself to sell for an insane exchange rate.

I am completely certain it is a bubble, which sucks if you want to buy some bitcoins on the cheap.

HOWEVER, it is my personal opinion that the bubble is just getting started (see my sig).

There WILL be a peak, followed by panic selling, followed by wild price swings, possibly followed by higher peaks (or not), and then hopefully the market will reach some level of stability at some price. The final stabilized price is anybody's guess.

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May 13, 2011, 07:03:27 PM
 #7

I find it quite crazy how fast it is rising! The news sites are starting to talk about it and that just makes the demand go up. I'm not going to complain though, even if less people play my lottery, the prize keeps going up. I'm more eagerly watching to see how many people start taking BTC as a means of payment. That is what it needs the most IMHO.

*Next Draw Feb 1*  BitLotto: monthly raffle (0.25 BTC per ticket) Completely transparent and impossible to manipulate who wins. TOR
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S3052
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May 13, 2011, 07:19:46 PM
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I am now also there. It is an exponential rise that will see a dramatic reversal.

http://bit.ly/kpcFR7

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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May 13, 2011, 07:29:13 PM
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Agreed. That Mt. Gox chart definitely had some parabolic action going on in the $5.58 to $7.90 range.
JohnDoe
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May 13, 2011, 07:38:05 PM
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People forget that there needs to be a reason for a bubble to pop. The value of a bitcoin is determined by the confidence that people have in the currency, so the only way for the value to crash is a sudden loss in confidence. There are a few events that could precipitate a loss in confidence but "the value rising too fast" is not one of them, we already have proof of that.
ribuck
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May 13, 2011, 07:41:32 PM
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What metrics one would use to detect a Bitcoin bubble, I have no idea.
One useful metric would be the number of newcomers getting involved with Bitcoin. As long as the rate of newcomers keeps increasing, there won't be a big pop. I don't know how one would estimate the number of new users.
kiba
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May 13, 2011, 07:43:05 PM
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http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

The forum listed how many people registered today, the number of post in a day, and so on.

Raulo
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May 13, 2011, 07:44:18 PM
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People forget that there needs to be a reason for a bubble to pop.

It's not true. Markets can fall without any direct cause "under their own weight". The only thing needed is fall in demand.


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May 13, 2011, 08:05:24 PM
 #14

It's not true. Markets can fall without any direct cause "under their own weight". The only thing needed is fall in demand.

There has to be a reason for the fall in demand no? Could you give me a few examples of markets just collapsing under their own weight?
barbarousrelic
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May 13, 2011, 08:09:11 PM
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There has to be a reason for the fall in demand no?

It could be as simple as people wanted bitcoins, they bought bitcoins, and now they don't want any more.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
fetokun
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May 13, 2011, 08:11:30 PM
 #16

I remember people telling it was a bubble when it reached parity with dollar
ribuck
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May 13, 2011, 08:20:01 PM
 #17

I remember people telling it was a bubble when it reached parity with dollar
You must be new here. Theymos tells how surprised he was that he was able to sell bitcoins that he generated on his computer for $0.003 (three tenths of a cent) each (in quantities of 10,000).
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May 13, 2011, 09:03:37 PM
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You must be new here. Theymos tells how surprised he was that he was able to sell bitcoins that he generated on his computer for $0.003 (three tenths of a cent) each (in quantities of 10,000).
Ah, the good old days Cheesy
I remember when I first sold my first 100 BTC, for a total of 0.61

Want to see what developers are chatting about? http://bitcoinstats.com/irc/bitcoin-dev/logs/
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May 13, 2011, 09:03:45 PM
 #19

Basically, a bubble is misplaced speculation. There is no doubt what so ever that a lot of the current value is speculation in a future prospering economy. Whether this speculation is misplaced or not, only time will tell, and that's what will determine if it's a bubble.
SgtSpike
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May 13, 2011, 09:05:37 PM
 #20

Basically, a bubble is misplaced speculation. There is no doubt what so ever that a lot of the current economy is speculation in a future prospering economy. Whether it's misplaced or not, only time will tell, and that's what will determine if it's a bubble.
I agree with this answer.

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