Bitcoin Forum

Let's just consider the BTC market technicals for one second.


First of all, the 1w chart still looks like this (the most important multi-year long term support trend line left that was broken with a spectacular crash):


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA43wGIWgAAOZIt.png:large



Secondly, on a more short term time frame, price has broken below the support trend line since the $150 bottom, and now became pretty strong resistance:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA432CYWYAAbx31.png:large



And finally, the bid sum on all exchanges (one of the most important aspects in considering a possible sustainable uptrend) is still relentlessly decreasing and is now sitting at scary low levels (bitstamp at $2.6M, Huobi at $1.2M etc)


http://coinsight.org/graphs/bitstamp_btcusd_depth.png

http://coinsight.org/graphs/huobi_btccny_depth.png




There's not more to add, current market conditions paint a pretty scary picture.
One thing is sure, the BTC markets have been unhealthy for quite a while, and they are not getting better at all for now.




PS: Sure, in 2011 price broke a log support trend line too (at $4 and then crashed to $2), but I argue that for a lot of reasons you can't really compare these two different scenarios. Price, marketcap, and overall landscape were totally different.
I'm not saying that because of that BTC is going to $0, just saying that breaking that long term trend line right now was a even more bearish turn of events.

Also I didn't add the fact that recent pumps have been supported by a lot of borrowed money in longs ($24M+ now on bitfinex) rather than by fresh new fiat on exchanges. These longs will just add to the sell pressure if it goes further down.

I don't really put a lot of faith into technical analysis, I always think it is used after something has happened to explain why it happened in retrospect.
I have to say though breaking through the support levels isn't great news, but it could just as well mean that it is oversold and due to rise..

I don't day trade anyway, so as long as the line continues upwards in the long run I will be happy.  What would be your prediction for a low price if your technical analysis is right? Looks like about 1200yuan, so $193 or so?

@OP: Here in this topic we discuss why applying TA to Bitcoin does not always work: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998939.0
You should definitely share your thoughts there.

By looking at the bid sum I doubt the recent $150 bottom will hold, so my guess would be high double digits like $75-$85, something like that.


Yes thanks I posted there  ;D

so you think the price should back to $350, recently ////

it could just be the calm before the storm, the problem is that everyone still compare current situation to the 1200 peak, that peak was just pure manipulation(willy bot ecc...) and a bit of luck

right now the price is low, because there are only whales playing with the market, no new money influx...

So completely off all of your charts?  That doesn't really seem like technical analysis, rather opinion...
Looking at last time the price broke down through the resistance levels, it fell to an equivilent of about $190.  If we reach that level (i don't think we will) I will be buying in strongly.

the funny part of it: just watch how quickly market sentiment turns right back around. it's fucking nuts. perhaps measured in hours.

TA does not always work in general.

The power (and weakness) of TA is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy: whenever enough traders see the same lines, they will trade on them, and thus everything with happen as forecast. Up to a black swan event.

It's not off the charts. If the next crash has a similar magnitude than the other ones it means it will end up at high double digits like $75-$85.

RyNinDaCleM recently posted a chart that shows this:

https://i.imgur.com/s3fMSe1.png


The market is so weak it didn't even bulltrap to $340-$360, it just stopped at $300, lol

Your trend lines hardly ever touch the curve!  That is also a completely different graph to the one you showed in the first post, where it showed that last time the resistance was broken, there was a flash crash to 933 yuan, before a recovery back to the resistance levels. Using this new graph you seem to be saying that the price will rise to about $400.

I have to say, I didn't realise that you were predicting the price for November, do you not think maybe that fundamentals might come into play over such a long time period? Or do you think that the market only works on a technical level, regardless of what happens with regulations, companies accepting bitcoins, ETFs etc?

TA is just a (semi-worthless) tool. The Bitcoin economy will eventually drive the market to amazing new highs.

I think it's difficult to draw those very long term trend-lines. If you've off by a few USD, you may miss the price by 50 USD when extrapolating the price into the future. I think leveraged trading has changed Bitcoin with this bubble cycle.

"Curve"? What do you mean?

Yes is a different chart but it was just to show that ranges in high double digits are not "off the charts".

Yes following that chart price was supposed to touch $360.
Few weeks back I admitted that price could reach $330 using a similar trend line but said that overall was still bearish (like the RyNinDaCleM chart): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg10631905#msg10631905

In the end market was so weak that it never recahed $330 or $360.

Are you really using Bitstamp bid sum in your arguments here?  The market has moved on.  It's time to update your data.

It's just an example dude, go to coinsight.org and check for yourself if the situation at any exchange is any different.

TA is what it is. Rpietila was dropping TA lines drawing 1 million dollars by now. The thing is we DONT KNOW. What WE KNOW is Bitcoin is amazing and unmatched, and that we are still a extremely underground community.

The btc needs a progress report on all the years event, to get back to $300 or something.

Maybe some good PR will do the trick, and have faith in the coin. lol. Hurry, someone post twitch recently adopting a tipping service used with bitcoin. post it on reddit! I need some $40 manipulation to sell off my coin.  :D

Anyways, yeah the reality of the markets are being rough overall though. I just hope those winkelvoss twins can pull something through like ETF or some shit so normal investors can buy a ton to boost it up lol.

Only then, it would have a solid foundation or something similar as a financial event.

Yeah but that's not really how TA should be used, that's more whishful thinking  ;D

Ponzietila  ::)

No one compares the price to the 1200 mark, everyone mostly compares to the 2014 stable price of 600 , and the drop which has happened since then.

I am rather surprised that after all the new merchant adoption and the increased popularity of bitcoin, the price has been falling.

It is surprising but it goes to show you just how much money 4 billion dollars actually is. I personally would think there should be no problem in BTC sustaining a multi billion dollar market cap, but that is clearly not the case. A billion is a thousand million and there just simply aren't that many people on this planet willing to gamble or use this cutting edge notion of a currency.

I wouldn't even call 2014's $600 as stable - we went from $100 at the end of 2013 up to $1100 in the course of a few weeks driven almost entirely on speculation.  The ecosystem wasn't close to ready to support that sort of value and every bit of 2014's price action was the correction back down from that ATH.  At the time it appeared to be stable, but hindsight seems to paint a clearer picture.

2013 saw under $100m of VC investments, and then in 2014 that tripled to up over $300m.  Now in just a quarter of 2015 we've seen another $200m coming in.  It's not money that instantly translates to stronger ecosystem, but it definitely will in the future.  It's also money from people and groups who then have a vested interest in BTC's economy.  Their investments would perform better with a bigger market cap.

Anyone scared about the current market conditions should go back and read some threads from before the late 2013 run.  Read some threads after the $266 previous ATH and subsequent Gox and price crash - and even that wasn't close to 2012.

This price action now? This is Candyland in comparison.

But now price and marketcap are exponentially higher which means that exponentially more fresh fiat coming in everyday is needed to support current prices or to spark rallies like in the past.

Bid sum was clearly increasing (and was a lot higher) in 2013 at the end of the bear market and during the bubbles (I posted the mtgox bid sum all throughout 2013 in another thread). My first post shows that right now the opposite is happening. At least for now.

Bid sum is the best indicator of incoming greater fools.

 :D :D :D

Er... "exponential"?  Saying that we need "exponentially" more fresh fiat to support the current price or spark rallies is 100% false - at least since 2012 when the last reward halving occurred.  Since that point there's been 3600 new BTC mined every day.  That means that the new money needed daily that had to come in during both the 30->260 and 100->1100 bubbles was the same.

As for the market cap, in October 2013 it was $2.5B.  Today it's ~$3.5B.  Again, this reflective of linear growth - not exponential.  We're looking at a total market cap that is ~17x just the amount of money that's been dumped into BTC VC in the first quarter of this year alone.  That's one major reason why this isn't as remotely as scary as 2013 was, even when it would have taken less fiat to drive the price higher.

No.

3600 BTC when price is at $10   ---> $36'000 USD
3600 BTC when price is at $1000 ---> $3.6M USD
etc.

Patience my fellow bitcoiners. Even I don't like this but we still have a yearly inflation rate of 9.4% once we hit 14m coins next week. Only the mid-2016 halving will bring this downward pressure to an end. The inflation schedule is under appreciated by the public but the distribution mechanism is in full effect as volatility disperses coins. Even the protocol is in a fight at the moment as we have yet to remove the 1MB cap. The fight continues in bitcoin land.

Whatever happens, there's always good and bad. I believe bitcoin will never catapult upwards as long as it haven't really found the bottom level. And if it needs to then let it be. I'm preparing to buy at every single dip and I mean getting at a bargain price. Similarly if it just continue to rise and rise, then there shouldn't be any problem here.

I think the beginning of next week might be interesting. I can see a dump to lower 200's / high 100's happening.

Current market conditions are scary = time to buy

WFN find everything scary. Even when he was bullish he never really believed it ;)

Me on the other hand. I'm terrified, but still buying like a fully committed bag holder!