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Title: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: epii on May 26, 2011, 03:59:13 PM Two and a half hours to the difficulty retarget, and it's going to be a doozy.
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: CydeWeys on May 26, 2011, 04:05:05 PM Yup, right around 438,000. A lot of people who bought new mining rigs recently and who forgot to take exponentially increasing difficulty into account are going to be losing lots of money.
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: acamus on May 26, 2011, 04:07:52 PM CydeWeys wins! http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9158.0
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: Horkabork on May 26, 2011, 04:17:41 PM So... will the dollar exchange value of a bitcoin rise to compensate?
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: CydeWeys on May 26, 2011, 04:24:30 PM No. The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable. Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price.
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: tomcollins on May 26, 2011, 04:46:34 PM No. The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable. Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price. Since less coins will be mined, it might adjust a little bit. But everyone knows it's coming, so it should already be priced in. Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: acamus on May 26, 2011, 05:01:54 PM No. The difficulty level rises to compensate for increased mining, so that the number of bitcoins entering the economy is stable. Only if the difficulty level didn't adjust would you see an effect on the price. Since less coins will be mined, it might adjust a little bit. But everyone knows it's coming, so it should already be priced in. All I know is that my eyes are glued after last night's action! over 500k of usd traded Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: evoorhees on May 26, 2011, 05:18:07 PM Didn't the difficulty just rise like a week ago? lol
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: mewantsbitcoins on May 26, 2011, 05:25:45 PM Didn't the difficulty just rise like a week ago? lol lol it will be rising next week again ;D Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: epii on May 26, 2011, 05:30:56 PM The latest network graphs look like the beginnings of an S-curve to me. The trend may not continue, but if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks like difficulty would peak around 800,000 - 900,000.
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: mewantsbitcoins on May 26, 2011, 05:42:38 PM I found a way to predict difficulty in the future ;D
It correlates with new posts per month http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6806/screenshot20110526at184.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/820/screenshot20110526at184.png/) Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: compro01 on May 26, 2011, 05:50:19 PM A lot of people who bought new mining rigs recently and who forgot to take exponentially increasing difficulty into account are going to be losing lots of money. only if this difficulty growth continues long term (long enough that a new generation of mining hardware can eat their lunch) or they choose to realize that loss (by selling their hardware, etc.). at some point people have to start dropping out due to unprofitably. at least assuming we're not all mining on free electricity or price keeps up with difficulty growth. Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: lacedwithkerosene on May 26, 2011, 06:18:51 PM Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams :-\
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: Anonymous on May 26, 2011, 06:21:20 PM Bitcoin mining is only beneficial if you are going to go big or you need the computer in the first place. Otherwise, you are better off purchasing coins.
Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: w128 on May 26, 2011, 06:31:07 PM Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams :-\ At least those guys will be left with a respectable and resalable PC when it's all said and done. The thousands of people who get sucked into Amway and similar scams end up with a pile of worthless crap. Title: Re: Just a reminder (difficulty) Post by: lacedwithkerosene on May 26, 2011, 06:36:40 PM Don't underestimate the youthful naivety of a prospective miner. I wouldn't expect there to be any less miners total. How could there be, when everyday there is another poor bloke making a thread looking for a loan so they can solo mine and then pay you back with a profit within a few months? Bitcoin mining shatters dreams :-\ At least those guys will be left with a respectable and resalable PC when it's all said and done. The thousands of people who get sucked into Amway and similar scams end up with a pile of worthless crap. Maybe they will, but their lenders will have "got sucked into" their false promises (which aren't even intentional, just delusional). |
