Bitcoin Forum

The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...

one word: EXPOSURE

To answer the thread question: It is going UP.

another word: MANIPULATION

Here is another word(s): Profit/Prophet

It is time now to bump all the manipulation thread from last year  :D

Bitcoin is going to be manipulated into triple digits and than crushed below $1 *evil grin*

while being manipulated, contemplate on this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for.  So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts.  They have been rising.  
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess).  So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity.  So anything over that is for the most part speculative value.  Could it go to $20, or $100?  Sure.   But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Thanks, this is exactly the information I was looking for. Good analysis. I'm contemplating a large purchase.

Aaaaaaand, if, through a major pump, the price does reach $20, or $100, it will come crashing right back down.  There won't be enough bid volume to sustain the selling at those levels and lots of profit takers will be competing against each other to get out.  It won't be pretty.

And you would be one of those selling...lol

Do you think the current price of gold is almost entirely speculative?

No it is a symptom of central banks inflating their currency supplies.

Good question.
Similarly, the total $$$ in existence is far bigger than M0 money supply.

The same argument will eventually apply to Bitcoin. Fractional reserve banking increases money supply.

this isn't happening

these days the manipulation going on is to keep prices lower then they should be as millions of new dollars enter the market.

Speculation is taking place with a small dab of a growing bitcoin economy.
As a miner i am selling daily and transferring to my bank account as quickly as possible.
I will not speculate at this point and i will run my gpus into the ground. Resale value is not important anymore.

If you look back over the bottom at $2 and before the 2011 bubble, the cost per transaction stayed within the $3-5 range. Today with a cost per transaction of $2, one could say it's undervalued at $12. That being said, with volume should come economy of scale so as the # of transactions per day increase we're unlikely to settle at $3-5 per transaction. The price has risen quickly but one could also make the case that there was a stickiness to $5 that when broken out of, led to this relatively quick correction.

If this applies to majority of the miners, it is amazing that price is holding up at the current level.

So sad most of you don't know how to read charts, no bubble here move along or sell to buy higher.

Total Bitcoin value =  Media-of-exchange-utilitarian-component + store-of-value-component.

The former can be calculated by number of transactions, the latter is a wildcard, largely depends on people's perceptions and confidence.

I dunno. It kinda looks like Bitcoin is awakening.

What is funny is pretending you are a guru and can read a chart to reliably to predict the future price. If this was the case what in the fuck are you doing here on this forum and not fucking mad bitches on your private island due to making so much money with your elite chart reading skills?

Go on wall street and turn 10k into 1 million. Geez. Stop wasting time here. Just double your money seven times. Easy right!

This place is scary bullish right now. Soon will be thread again about how people will be bitcoin millionaires.

I think the latter is the clear driver behind this move, and it will continue as long as worldwide savings are under threat of debasement and confiscation.  The amount that has been pumped into the market cap, $50+ million over the past few weeks, with many single large orders buying up thousands of BTC in one go, indicates serious money taking up positions as opposed to individuals looking to buy a pair (or two) of alpaca socks.

It sure looks like it

This ^^  I would add that an important factor is the fear of financial meltdown.

what makes you think that?

sounds to me like you guys need your eyes checked...

Now it's 12.17 the day the block reward halves. Must be a sign.

Dopamine, I know... I know... I keep telling them to look at trendlines and just hang in there - there is no 'too high' when it is climbing a 45-degree slope with no closes below it. But I guess that is the difference between emotional trading and trying to be the least bit technical.

Wall street is rigged.  We have here in our little corner of the internet the only large scale free market in the world.  In a free market simple psychology and a healthy understanding of the slow moving fundamentals will take you places.  The only way to win on wall street is to already be king.

There is not money "pumped into the market cap". You cannot value the seven million BTC that were not sold based on the trading of a few thousand. Certainly the price increasing from $5 to $10 doesn't mean that $35 million was invested into Bitcoin.

Didn't sound right to me either.

Adam, you should visit Press subforum, I don't know how you can't see what is happening out there in relation to Bitcoin.

here, i'll put some cliff notes for you what's going on recently: US and UK politicians discussing alt currencies mentioning Bitcoin in their respective capitals, VC initiates Bitcoin discussion on his blog, SR and Bitcoinica on mainstream internet media. Hell, even us-cert.gov & nist.gov released bitcoin vulnerability warning on their sites, yes it's for an outdated version, but nonetheless even they're keeping tabs on Bitcoin out of all places lol.  There is a rather large exposure of bitcoin to diverse circles of people out there, with no hype, people just talk more about it everywhere and many starting to take Bitcoin seriously.  

I think you can't accept it due to fact that with each passing day we are drifting further away from your buy-in target point. you didn't listen to anyone before we hit $10 and you still refuse to listen hoping a correction will come any moment now.

Now, tell me what am i missing that doesn't allow me to see time for correction due atm or soon?

+1

The other thing everybody seems to be forgetting regarding Bitcoin's value is scarcity. Movement this "slow" and with volume only marginally higher means that whoever needs BTC is just buying them at market price, only there's more of it being bought, and being in an uptrend, leaving your buy order a few cents below the ask means it's probably not getting filled and you're not getting whatever you wanted to buy.

More people using BTC, higher price. Almost as simple as that.

If you want to see a bubble, wait until the false walls are dropped! That'll be a bubble to remember. ;D

you bulls are out of control

nope, haven't even gotten to posting rockets yet

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSWoMChAEBbUWz2UaI1wPf9-x9zImbDuYI3_ZmYa6bM1f7T1jcGFw7cKwK2ug

stay in denial

^ LOL +1

damn did you buy back already?

Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good 8)

It was a stealth move....hehehehe

Let me break the news for you: it's only numbers on your calculator. Unless you sell your coins, you've got zero dollars/euros/dinars/whatever.

Zero monopoly money

I'd be using your calculator to figure out how many bitcoins you can get for you stash of USD

not the other way around  ;)

Sell high, buy higher. It never fails!  ;D
(C) Cypherdoc

Did I tell you where I bought? No....so you are just making assumptions.

 ;D ;D ;D Speculate about that more he he he he

You could just sign up for blockchain.info, add your bitcoin addresses as "watch only" (no need to add private keys if you dont intend to use it as a wallet) and let it generate fancy charts. Sure beats using a calculator :)

www.btcbalance.net (http://www.btcbalance.net)

If you have dozens of addresses with a balance this site kicks ass

What if we had a metric of (Last Block Transaction Counts * (Last Block Transaction Amounts / Last Block Bitcoin Days Destroyed)) / Block Number) ?

Or maybe just Last Block Transaction Counts / Block Number?

In both cases you'd want to exclude the top 100 addresses of course, but it might show a good ratio of how much use the blockchain is actually getting.

You can also tack on your holdings or some representation of them to this URL and save it as a bookmark.

http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/c/BTC/100.00

The blockchain.info wallet does this too, and I've set it up to send me email whenever I receive or spend btc, which I do from bitcoin-qt where my private keys are. Great setup.

This rings with truth, thanks.

You can cast your votes here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100706.0

My take is that some party or parties with significant capital want to vacuum up BTC and are running a long upward slope which is designed to keep people who want in but on a dip in the cold and meet the price objectives of the weak hands who've decided to capitalize at particular price points.  Unfortunately a lot of small time would-be investors may not really get much of a chance or when they take the plunge they'll end up with a fraction of what they might have.  If I wanted in (and I don't because I'm already in) I'd just cost average from here.  That is to say, spend {x} amount of fiat at a predetermined schedule and thus balance out the risk of overpaying with the reward of catching a break.  In this way I'd protect against getting left out completely (which itself may or may not end up being a good thing.)

We are also getting ever closer to the block reward being cut down from 50 to 25 BTC per block.  Close enough such that the recent run-up might have a component of pricing that in.  I find it hard to project what impact this event could have on exchange rates and could see arguments for it having quite a range of impacts.  Again, if I wanted in I'd want to have some of my foot in the door before this event just in case.

exactly right.

I don't think the block reward halving is priced in yet.  My theory is if you are a miner you are probably a bitcoin bull and so mostly would keep your savings in BTC (even without the block reward halving).  You'd be selling when needed (as opposed to selling to fiat and saving that).  So how long can someone defer paying living expenses, etc?  Maybe a month or two but not much more than that.

I agree with this.

Many say it is because it is prior knowledge. But i still believe the "reality" of block reward halving hasn't fully hit everyone yet.

Just watch...there will be a bitcoin frenzy in the next 9 months.

yes but how long will this party going to keep doing this?

once they stop buy, will they sell some? ...

WHY are they buying?

do they want to own the market, so they can manipulate us into buying or selling when they want?

yeah, most ppl looking at Bitcoin right now are just trying to figure the whole thing out let alone the economics behind it. 

The number one question I get is how do I buy bitcoins?

I think people are buying for many reasons:

1. To hoard.
2. To buy things with it.
3. To test it out.
4. To pay off investors  ;)
5. To buy drugs....

i spent last week pounding Fred Wilson's VC Blog and you're exactly right.  that was the first question.  for a bunch of supposedly wealthy ppl, i didn't find the level of economic intelligence over there very high.

Need to make more youtube videos and write more articles for those with that question.

I may simply be projecting, but I assume that said theoretical party/parties have some of the same motivations as I.  That is, they consider the Bitcoin solution have a very high potential value and see BTC as hugely undervalued at this time.

If this is the case, they, like I, would mostly cash out if they sense an imminent collapse of the solution or if the value starts to approach the theorized peak.  Probably also like I, such parties don't really need the funds they've speculated in Bitcoin and can absorb a 100% loss (and consider it the most likely outcome.)  So I would expect selling to be more muted than it might otherwise be.

"How to get bitcoins" (Cómo obtener bitcoins) is by far the most searched post on my blog.

http://elbitcoin.org/bitcoin-para-principiantes-como-obtener-bitcoins/

OMG the stock market is going up and down also!!! What could it mean? :-[

This thing is starting to look like a run-away train to me.

My theory of large cap parties managing a controlled increase to maximize their BTC acquisition has another side.  That is that if there are multiple parties which are not coordinating with one another, they will end up eating one another's lunch.  The best strategy for these players in that case is to just go ahead and buy with both hands.  If such a thing were to happen it could be quite explosive.

the beauty of this whole thing is that it's literally a world-wide phenomenon.  it's actually quite complicated to buy stocks on foreign exchanges.  i once looked into it and it was totally impractical if not impossible.  yes, you can buy country specific ETF's but that's not the same thing.

with Bitcoin we have ppl piling in from all over the world.  and countries big developed countries, like Japan, are just getting started.

Such a global reach coupled with its ambiguous nature, (is it commodity, currency, stock, or just plain bitcoin?) makes analysis of bitcoin very intriguing and interesting.

6 mo ago that was a negative, lol!  :D

nuts 12.86 *facepalm*

tis great. miners just keep selling into this upswing. averaging out is awesome.
win win win.

IMO, we all need to thank miners for mining and selling at the beginning. Otherwise, we would not have bitcoin to trade and speculate.

yes.  thank you fcmatt.

a bit of awkward paraphrasing for you: obvious bear is obvious

Where is Will Smith when you need him? :D

oh no problem at all. hopefully the btc i mine next week will be for 20 a pop. :-)

ROFL 

It's not that impractical if you're good at it. I managed to make a great return trading on the US market during the financial meltdown, from Australia. Profit margins are lower and costs are higher, that's all. Playing in the big sandbox even at a disadvantage is still going to net you more than the little one.