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Title: the money says volitility but not necessarily down Post by: pleaseexplain on April 02, 2015, 01:09:04 PM In the prediction market I use where you spend real money supporting your prediction the 'price for bitcoin at 1 jan 2016' is showing some interesting information.
All the possible prices are put into 5 bands for ease of betting. one band is that bitcoin will be in $100-$500 range. Now only 45% of people think so. (which gives odds of 1.2 to 1) so that means (with bitcoin at about $250 now) the rest (55%) of the people are saying it will fall by at least $150 or rise by more than $250. that tells me people still think the price will be still highly volatile in the coming months. this is not so surprising but what is interesting is that of that 55% about half are for it being lower than $100 and half for it being higher than $500. considering all the bear sentiment around in this forum (including me - I am betting it will be below $100 ) it seems when "the rubber hits the road' the bulls are still alive and well and must just be keeping quiet for a bit. its a little more bearish than bullish at the outer extremes but not overly so: eg for the band bitcoin will be $50 or less 10% think so (giving odds of 9 to 1) eg for the band bitcoin will be $1000 or more 8.3% think so (giving odds of 11 to 1) Title: Re: the money says volitility but not necessarily down Post by: americanpegasus on April 02, 2015, 05:43:40 PM That few people think that we won't be at $1000+ by next year?
Well then it's obvious what will happen. |