Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: bb113 on August 17, 2012, 07:56:14 AM



Title: Slow Down??
Post by: bb113 on August 17, 2012, 07:56:14 AM
http://i50.tinypic.com/2u5wfeu.png

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=W&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&


Look closer at what happened at $6 in May 2011. Buy in now to take advantage of the forthcoming newbs. Will it crash afterwards? Probably, but it may be a trick.

It would be stupid if someone did not create another bubble at this point. Everyone says bubbles harm the legitimacy of bitcoin. I disagree, from what I have seen bubbles get people interested who otherwise would not have been. Did the dotcom bubble harm the legitimacy of the internet?


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 17, 2012, 07:58:44 AM
All the way to $50 baby!


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: Electricbees on August 17, 2012, 10:18:08 AM
All the way to $50 baby! But slowly and at a constant velocity!

FTFY


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:12:01 AM

Look closer at what happened at $6 in May 2011. Buy in now to take advantage of the forthcoming newbs. Will it crash afterwards? Probably, but it may be a trick.

It would be stupid if someone did not create another bubble at this point. Everyone says bubbles harm the legitimacy of bitcoin. I disagree, from what I have seen bubbles get people interested who otherwise would not have been. Did the dotcom bubble harm the legitimacy of the internet?

The most likely reason a bubble will occur now is a big investor makes a big market-order buy, not realizing or not believing the walls are false and will be taken down before they can be sold into - meaning their $1kk purchase will now take the price to $50 in an instant instead of the $20-ish they probably expected. At this kind of volume that's the only way I see it happening. Fear of that keeping big buyers from making big one-time buys is also a great thing. Slow and steady wins the race!


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: bullioner on August 17, 2012, 11:27:34 AM

The most likely reason a bubble will occur now is a big investor makes a big market-order buy

Would you mind explaining why they would do that?  Wouldn't they always be better off placing limit orders?


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 11:31:16 AM

The most likely reason a bubble will occur now is a big investor makes a big market-order buy

Would you mind explaining why they would do that?  Wouldn't they always be better off placing limit orders?

Fat-finger error? Overconfidence? Wanting to deliberately cause an updraft with a spike, not realizing how big it would actually be?


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: ruski on August 17, 2012, 05:22:43 PM
Just like what happened now. The $15 wall came down, the buys reached up to $15.40 before restabilizing thanks to the massive market orders. Entirely possible.


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 17, 2012, 05:25:25 PM
I agree we really need to slow down....


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: adamstgBit on August 17, 2012, 05:26:09 PM
I agree we really need to slow down....

did you not go to sleep?


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: adamstgBit on August 17, 2012, 05:27:13 PM
I agree we really need to slow down....

did you not go to sleep?

you sound really tired and cant think right


XXX.XX here we come....


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 17, 2012, 05:28:16 PM
I agree we really need to slow down....

did you not go to sleep?

you sound really tired and cant think right


XXX.XX here we come....

Lol 3 hours  ;D


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: fcmatt on August 17, 2012, 05:28:52 PM
Just remember it is different this time. This is not a bubble. Keep buying.
To the moon!


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: tvbcof on August 17, 2012, 05:42:42 PM

There is latency getting fiat into exchanges which sometimes create slowdowns.  Temporary when interest (or desperation) is high.  Mistaken for tops by some unfortunate analysts.



Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 17, 2012, 05:44:03 PM
If we are really only at blurp 2, we are going to go past $50 for sure lol


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: thezerg on August 17, 2012, 06:43:11 PM

There is latency getting fiat into exchanges which sometimes create slowdowns.  Temporary when interest (or desperation) is high.  Mistaken for tops by some unfortunate analysts.


I think this may be the cause of the stead(ier) pace this time.  I'd imagine that before all the hacks people were a lot more willing to hold fiat on the exchanges.  Now I guess that many people only move what they want to spend...


Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: tvbcof on August 17, 2012, 06:57:58 PM

There is latency getting fiat into exchanges which sometimes create slowdowns.  Temporary when interest (or desperation) is high.  Mistaken for tops by some unfortunate analysts.


I think this may be the cause of the stead(ier) pace this time.  I'd imagine that before all the hacks people were a lot more willing to hold fiat on the exchanges.  Now I guess that many people only move what they want to spend...

I was never keen to have any of my assets under counter-party risk so I never held more fiat than I needed for near-term use at an exchange, and when I started the only exchange which had had a problem was Mt. Gox.  OTOH, I always funded with wire transfers and the larger the funding block, the lower the percentage I paid for that part of the transaction.  So it was always a balancing game.

I choose the position I wanted (which was a function of how low the price got), achieved it, cold-stored my loot, and have not traded since.  So now I can just sit back and enjoy the ride no matter what direction it takes me.  Until we get to points where I expect to back some of it out at least...if we ever get to those points.



Title: Re: Slow Down??
Post by: TraderTimm on August 17, 2012, 07:14:36 PM
Just as a helpful reminder, "Bubble" refers to a market that completely COLLAPSES after the upward move is over. I think using it to describe blow-off tops and parabolic moves isn't correct. With all that, I think the current move is heating up a bit, but I'm reluctant to call for retrace until it has concluded.

It has decisively bust through the upper channel trendline, which sits just north of 14.00 - this may become a new support trendline. Watching the dailies with much interest.

Update: While watching it - it broke below 14.00 and then traded above. Closing below 14.00 would be bearish to me.