Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: niko on August 19, 2012, 07:06:40 AM



Title: Putting things into perspective
Post by: niko on August 19, 2012, 07:06:40 AM
Here is the big picture so far. The volume really only picked up in April last year, so that's where the plot starts.

What do you think?
 
EDIT: updated chart (Aug 19, UTC 19:00)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aT7AMXuFP_4/UDE8gGdlUFI/AAAAAAAAAAw/LFxZSrTs_5g/s1600/chart_daily.png


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: Vandroiy on August 19, 2012, 11:32:37 AM
I can't answer the question without a time-scale.

Maybe one day, the Bitcoin market will be mature enough to work on a bigger scale. But it doesn't look like that will be very soon. Just look at the nonsense that was the last month, this sort of thing scares off people who want to do normal business. The Ponzi party should do its part as well. And on the historic graph, that's a lot of sharp straight lines considering we're looking at a logscale plot.

How about a new slogan: "Bitcoin -- because sanity is for the weak"? :P


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: bitcon on August 19, 2012, 11:36:45 AM
it also can attract people who want to make an easy buck


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: SaintFlow on August 19, 2012, 12:04:54 PM
it also can attract people who want to make an easy buck

usually loose it quick, too


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: Technomage on August 19, 2012, 12:09:25 PM
Volatility is the biggest problem with Bitcoin right now, in my opinion. However, this will only get better as Bitcoin grows and matures. It's sad but that's just the way it is. Revolution doesn't happen easily.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: runeks on August 19, 2012, 12:44:37 PM
^ And also: evolution doesn't happen quickly.

Give it time people. It won't happen from one year to the next.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: niko on August 19, 2012, 07:30:11 PM
I have updated the chart, since we've gone into <10 territory since yesterday. Hopefully this storm will end soon so we can take a calm look.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: muyuu on August 19, 2012, 07:36:44 PM
I'm finding it extremely hard to convince potential new users to join with the 2 day 40% drops we have experienced a couple times already and one happening just now.

People don't want any substantial amount invested in something so volatile. This is gambling right now, not day-to-day business.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: Spekulatius on August 19, 2012, 07:40:40 PM
I just changed my vote from "Doing great" (yesterday) to: "Doing just fine"


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: smoothie on August 19, 2012, 07:41:01 PM
Why does everybody here seem to sulk when the price drops?

What IF the price rebounds this week? Ever thought about that?

Sheesh some of you need to chill. :D


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: niko on August 19, 2012, 07:53:24 PM
We'll see how this ongoing story unfolds, it's certainly exciting to watch. Prior crashes, rallies, scams, and technical developments obviously had their impact, but look at the chart above: Bitcoin economy kept grinding away. I'm an optimist because the fundamentals are growing stronger. I'm a pessimist because bitcoins are a perfect pump-and-dump asset, and community obviously hasn't learned the lessons yet.  All in all, we're doing just fine, but Bitcoin will not thrive by itself: it needs everyone's work and dedication.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: muyuu on August 19, 2012, 08:43:30 PM
Why does everybody here seem to sulk when the price drops?

What IF the price rebounds this week? Ever thought about that?

Sheesh some of you need to chill. :D

Doesn't matter. Honestly I'm on for the long run, I have never sold a BTC, I have used some for services but that's that.

But the thing is, short term, it's going to be hard to convince people to put a large sum for BTC when it can move 40% either way in 2 days. People don't want to deal with this kind of preoccupation in their day-to-day life. As it stands, prices won't be decided any time soon in BTC unless it keeps some kind of stability against major currencies or commodities. This is a massive barrier for adoption.

I thought we were close to stability but obviously I was wrong. Maybe in a year or two...


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: smoothie on August 19, 2012, 09:30:08 PM
Why does everybody here seem to sulk when the price drops?

What IF the price rebounds this week? Ever thought about that?

Sheesh some of you need to chill. :D

Doesn't matter. Honestly I'm on for the long run, I have never sold a BTC, I have used some for services but that's that.

But the thing is, short term, it's going to be hard to convince people to put a large sum for BTC when it can move 40% either way in 2 days. People don't want to deal with this kind of preoccupation in their day-to-day life. As it stands, prices won't be decided any time soon in BTC unless it keeps some kind of stability against major currencies or commodities. This is a massive barrier for adoption.

I thought we were close to stability but obviously I was wrong. Maybe in a year or two...

I guess the stock market and apple also fit that too in  that they have price swings too...not sure what the difference is......think of bitcoin like a stock.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: muyuu on August 19, 2012, 09:35:16 PM
I guess the stock market and apple also fit that too in  that they have price swings too...not sure what the difference is......think of bitcoin like a stock.
The difference is that 99% of the people don't buy stocks. A currency is not a hot stock, when it is, it's not working properly as such.

Basically BTC is nowhere close to being a good alternative to mainstream people. Hopefully with time it will be.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: proudhon on August 19, 2012, 10:00:01 PM
Here is the big picture so far. The volume really only picked up in April last year, so that's where the plot starts.

What do you think?
 
EDIT: updated chart (Aug 19, UTC 19:00)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aT7AMXuFP_4/UDE8gGdlUFI/AAAAAAAAAAw/LFxZSrTs_5g/s1600/chart_daily.png

This just tells me that the 2011 bubble hasn't fully deflated yet.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: benjamindees on August 19, 2012, 10:17:52 PM
Everything looks like a straight line on a logarithmic graph.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: muyuu on August 19, 2012, 10:21:04 PM
Everything looks like a straight line on a logarithmic graph.

Except for BTC valuation, it looks like the Himalayas.


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: miscreanity on August 19, 2012, 10:23:15 PM
This just tells me that the 2011 bubble hasn't fully deflated yet.

I've been wondering when you'd start making nonsensical noises again. </troll>

:)


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: proudhon on August 19, 2012, 10:49:09 PM
This just tells me that the 2011 bubble hasn't fully deflated yet.

I've been wondering when you'd start making nonsensical noises again. </troll>

:)

I'm just doing my part to help this thing along.   ;D


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: miscreanity on August 19, 2012, 10:50:20 PM
This just tells me that the 2011 bubble hasn't fully deflated yet.
I've been wondering when you'd start making nonsensical noises again. </troll>

:)
I'm just doing my part to help this thing along.   ;D

Well, I don't mind the discount :)


Title: Re: Putting things into perspective
Post by: niko on August 19, 2012, 11:52:57 PM
Everything looks like a straight line on a logarithmic graph.
That plot looks like a straight line to you?!