Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: miscreanity on August 19, 2012, 10:12:58 PM



Title: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: miscreanity on August 19, 2012, 10:12:58 PM
This is from an earlier thread when the $9 level was breached a month ago; pay attention to the parts I've underlined.

Dunno if there's another thread discussing this, I just saw this on Reddit (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpcdv/confused_about_the_7895_btcusd_bubble_answers/) (original log on pastebin (http://pastebin.com/PthgrzDS)).

Quote
<pirateat40> this was kind of like a training simulation.
<pirateat40> it will all make sense soon enough.
<pirateat40> crashed is != corrected.
<pirateat40> we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.
<proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10?
<pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to.
<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.

<pirateat40> Keep buying people...
<pirateat40> I'm just going to say this [one] time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.
<pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
<pirateat40> GO!, NOW
<pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning.
<pirateat40> 80% is the people not in our tiny community.
<pirateat40> Im trying to make a point here.
<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

In the July spike (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg1035667;topicseen#msg1035667) above $9, there was far too rapid an ascent. This one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101237.0) showed the same hallmarks and has so far elicited similar actions from Pirate (et al?). Neither were bubbles, but rather carefully managed ranges.

After the price was knocked down from $9, there was a calm period of almost two weeks. The decline from $15 is now nearly 50% and should create a somewhat longer calm period when it comes to technical trading - possibly several weeks, or even months in duration if Pirate was the primary cause of appreciation over the last few months.

Of course, with Pirate closing BS&T, the liquidation process will probably be volatile. I expect to see patterns similar to gold from mid-2011 to early 2012, only crammed into about a week's time. Since the Bitcoin economy is significantly greater than the community on the forums and IRC, we are privy to more information than most of the people participating in the exchange markets and can better capitalize on that volatility.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: 556j on August 19, 2012, 10:37:37 PM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy. If anyone was on vacation for the week they wouldn't even notice the impact of this weekend. Bitcoin is way bigger than some narcissistic ponzi operator and will be fine long term. Sell all your coins though, bitcoin is finished. September Gavin will be announcing CIA takeover of all bitcoin development with Pirate being promoted to Director.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: finkleshnorts on August 19, 2012, 10:40:01 PM
If anyone was on vacation for the week they wouldn't even notice the impact of this weekend.

Doubtful


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: 556j on August 19, 2012, 10:47:05 PM
If anyone was on vacation for the week they wouldn't even notice the impact of this weekend.

Doubtful

maybe 1 week is exaggerating  but 30 day low is 7.58. Less than 9 months ago btc was close to $3. The panic is hilarious.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 19, 2012, 10:55:55 PM
He made me $3000 on purpose.

pirate has complete control of the market.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: 556j on August 19, 2012, 11:00:31 PM
He made me $3000 on purpose.

pirate has complete control of the market.

oh shit 3,000 dolllars. you can almost buy a 8 year old Saturn or Kia with that kind of cash. Ballin'


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 19, 2012, 11:03:20 PM
What's that sound? The sound of someone who doesn't think $3000 is a lot of money?


How about you send me $3000 if it's meaningless to you.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: mobodick on August 19, 2012, 11:07:24 PM
He made me $3000 on purpose.

pirate has complete control of the market.

oh shit 3,000 dolllars. you can almost buy a 8 year old Saturn or Kia with that kind of cash. Ballin'

I think $3000 is nothing.
Send it to me instead.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: cypherdoc on August 19, 2012, 11:10:25 PM
miscreanity, shame on you.  you know better than this.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: mobodick on August 19, 2012, 11:14:42 PM
miscreanity, shame on you.  you know better than this.

When you're as smart as i am you don't have to know anything...


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: 556j on August 19, 2012, 11:16:11 PM
What's that sound? The sound of someone who doesn't think $3000 is a lot of money?


How about you send me $3000 if it's meaningless to you.

Have you never worked as a delivery boy? I did when I was in college. First thing I noticed, nice neighborhood = shit tips. Trailer park = gold mine.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 19, 2012, 11:28:49 PM
What's that sound? The sound of someone who doesn't think $3000 is a lot of money?


How about you send me $3000 if it's meaningless to you.

Have you never worked as a delivery boy? I did when I was in college. First thing I noticed, nice neighborhood = shit tips. Trailer park = gold mine.


Yes. But no. There are the same amount of shitty tippers in shitty neighborhoods as shitty tippers in expensive neighborhoods.

In fact, I can tell a good tip from a bad tip BETTER by skin color combined with speech dialect.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: miscreanity on August 19, 2012, 11:34:46 PM
miscreanity, shame on you.  you know better than this.

I'm no Proudhon :P


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: zvs on August 20, 2012, 12:27:34 AM
What's that sound? The sound of someone who doesn't think $3000 is a lot of money?


How about you send me $3000 if it's meaningless to you.

Have you never worked as a delivery boy? I did when I was in college. First thing I noticed, nice neighborhood = shit tips. Trailer park = gold mine.


Yes. But no. There are the same amount of shitty tippers in shitty neighborhoods as shitty tippers in expensive neighborhoods.

In fact, I can tell a good tip from a bad tip BETTER by skin color combined with speech dialect.
really?  i'm actually rather curious about this whole tipping business

i remember when i was poor in college and ordering out for pizza, i'd tip about 20%.  now that i have more money, i tip about 10%. 

maybe age plays a factor too?

 ???


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: 556j on August 20, 2012, 12:31:42 AM
What's that sound? The sound of someone who doesn't think $3000 is a lot of money?


How about you send me $3000 if it's meaningless to you.

Have you never worked as a delivery boy? I did when I was in college. First thing I noticed, nice neighborhood = shit tips. Trailer park = gold mine.


Yes. But no. There are the same amount of shitty tippers in shitty neighborhoods as shitty tippers in expensive neighborhoods.

In fact, I can tell a good tip from a bad tip BETTER by skin color combined with speech dialect.
really?  i'm actually rather curious about this whole tipping business

i remember when i was poor in college and ordering out for pizza, i'd tip about 20%.  now that i have more money, i tip about 10%.  

maybe age plays a factor too?

 ???

He must have been in an especially bad area or is just racist and sees what he wants. It's pretty well accepted/known that higher income areas and people will tip less than lower income. I still remember my highest tip. Some drunk redneck in a trailer during football season. The 500k+ houses always told me "keep the change" like 70 cents, acting like they were doing me a huge favor. I think it has a lot to do with being able to relate to the person more. The closer your income is to the delivery guy the more human you see them as, or the more you can relate to them. While people that make much more don't give a shit about that person so they aren't trying to impress them or be on their good side, cuz they look down on them or similar.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: alan2here on August 20, 2012, 01:15:13 AM
I'm all up for performance related/defined pay. I don't see tipping as being a particually efficent way of achieving this, or much to do with polietness. Particually when it comes to food and eateries that manege both quality and value arn't geared up for tipping at all but high class places where your massivly overcharged then add more insult by having to have you press another button during the debit card transaction to avoid the tip. Iv'e not lived anywhere where there is a culture of tipping, I'm sure I'd find it infuriating.

I'm interested to know if anyone tips for anything that happens often, for example tipping the bus driver each day if you travel by bus a lot.

It's interesting, and makes a lot of sence that people tip more where they can relate to the person they are tipping. It feels racist if somone tips less to a black man than a white one, but this idea perhaps goes some way to giving an explonation, maybe the tipper would be shocked if they were made conciously aware of there tipping habbits.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitcon on August 20, 2012, 01:26:47 AM
This is from an earlier thread when the $9 level was breached a month ago; pay attention to the parts I've underlined.

Dunno if there's another thread discussing this, I just saw this on Reddit (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpcdv/confused_about_the_7895_btcusd_bubble_answers/) (original log on pastebin (http://pastebin.com/PthgrzDS)).

Quote
<pirateat40> this was kind of like a training simulation.
<pirateat40> it will all make sense soon enough.
<pirateat40> crashed is != corrected.
<pirateat40> we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.
<proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10?
<pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to.
<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.

<pirateat40> Keep buying people...
<pirateat40> I'm just going to say this [one] time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.
<pirateat40> Yes, Everyone BUY
<pirateat40> GO!, NOW
<pirateat40> The more you buy the more I make.
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning.
<pirateat40> 80% is the people not in our tiny community.
<pirateat40> Im trying to make a point here.
<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!


he contradicts himself.

<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.[/b]
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: ruski on August 20, 2012, 01:30:13 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: MrTeal on August 20, 2012, 01:42:44 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: ruski on August 20, 2012, 01:47:12 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

In which case, he has more.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: mb300sd on August 20, 2012, 01:47:17 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

Well, someone just recovered ~45k... lets pray they don't dump.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101847


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitcon on August 20, 2012, 02:04:44 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

Well, someone just recovered ~45k... lets pray they don't dump.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101847

unless you want to buy some cheap coins then, you'd pray he would dump


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitarrow on August 20, 2012, 02:09:33 AM
yes i need to go under $7, let him dump!


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 20, 2012, 02:27:33 AM
Cross posting this obviously, but if you guys really think Pirate is full of shit and a scammer, you need to see this. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitcon on August 20, 2012, 02:47:30 AM
alright, just what we need - another scam.

i'm starting my own Bet.  If Matthew N. Wright actually pays anyone that wins the bet against him that Pirate40 paysout i will return 200% to any bet placers. any takers?


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 20, 2012, 03:21:45 AM
alright, just what we need - another scam.

i'm starting my own Bet.  If Matthew N. Wright actually pays anyone that wins the bet against him that Pirate40 paysout i will return 200% to any bet placers. any takers?

Ironic, considering the entire point of the bet was to teach people a lesson who make accusations without any evidence. I guess I need to teach you a lesson as well. If you think that bet was a scam, I will escrow 100BTC with you right now (surely you can afford it since you were willing to offer 1200BTC to anyone who won my bet) that it is not a scam. If you don't do it, we know who the real scammer is, and with your track record of lies (how's your wife doing?) that should already be obvious.

Ball's in your court.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: tvbcof on August 20, 2012, 03:34:23 AM
...  September Gavin will be announcing CIA takeover of all bitcoin development with Pirate being promoted to Director.

No problem.  That's what God created forks for.

And if the blockchain forks in relationship to a codebase fork I'm cool with that too...as long as it doesn't back-track to half a year ago when I last did a transaction I'll just control the same percentage value in more than one blockchain.



Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: notme on August 20, 2012, 03:37:29 AM
...  September Gavin will be announcing CIA takeover of all bitcoin development with Pirate being promoted to Director.

No problem.  That's what God created forks for.

And if the blockchain forks in relationship to a codebase fork I'm cool with that too...as long as it doesn't back-track to half a year ago when I last did a transaction I'll just control the same percentage value in more than one blockchain.



Until someone you send BTC to rebroadcasts your transaction on the other chain...

This is easy to avoid though, just remember to send all your coins to a fresh, unique address on each chain shortly after the fork.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: tvbcof on August 20, 2012, 04:04:10 AM
...  September Gavin will be announcing CIA takeover of all bitcoin development with Pirate being promoted to Director.

No problem.  That's what God created forks for.

And if the blockchain forks in relationship to a codebase fork I'm cool with that too...as long as it doesn't back-track to half a year ago when I last did a transaction I'll just control the same percentage value in more than one blockchain.


Until someone you send BTC to rebroadcasts your transaction on the other chain...

This is easy to avoid though, just remember to send all your coins to a fresh, unique address on each chain shortly after the fork.

One of the reason I have a multitude of not only addresses but completely independent wallet files is for flexibility in dealing with a lot of issues which could theoretically crop up.  I wanted a bulk of my holdings planted as deeply in the blockchain as possible.  If transferring value to a new address is the best way to solve a given problem and if it can be done without compromising the value I hold in other chain forks then that is what I might do.  Carefully.

In any event I see it as unlikely to need to worry about any of this stuff to terribly much at this point.



Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitcon on August 20, 2012, 04:28:51 AM
alright, just what we need - another scam.

i'm starting my own Bet.  If Matthew N. Wright actually pays anyone that wins the bet against him that Pirate40 paysout i will return 200% to any bet placers. any takers?

Ironic, considering the entire point of the bet was to teach people a lesson who make accusations without any evidence. I guess I need to teach you a lesson as well. If you think that bet was a scam, I will escrow 100BTC with you right now (surely you can afford it since you were willing to offer 1200BTC to anyone who won my bet) that it is not a scam. If you don't do it, we know who the real scammer is, and with your track record of lies (how's your wife doing?) that should already be obvious.

Ball's in your court.

how about the lesson of not sending your money to strangers?  when are you going to teach people that lesson? i may lie to try to get a rise out of ppl but i don't try to scam people out of money or stick up for people like pirate40. i don't stoop that low.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: miscreanity on August 20, 2012, 04:35:28 AM
he contradicts himself.

<pirateat40> There is no point in the last 7 months that I've not been in control of the market.[/b]
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market.

Control is one thing, such as pushing the price back into a stable range. Cornering or playing the market is another, especially when it's disruptive.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: fcmatt on August 20, 2012, 04:37:38 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

Well, someone just recovered ~45k... lets pray they don't dump.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101847

That was a very profitable post for me. I plan to dump.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: bitcon on August 20, 2012, 05:12:56 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

Well, someone just recovered ~45k... lets pray they don't dump.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101847

That was a very profitable post for me. I plan to dump.

just the 100 coins tho right?


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: fcmatt on August 20, 2012, 05:23:38 AM
Yah someone who at best controls 3-4% of btc is completely in control of the economy.

We have billionaires that only control .005% of the real world economy being accused of controlling it. Accurately.

3-4% of all BTC is vastly more than the currency trade volume.

edit - 500k BTC is an even 5%, anyway.
5% assuming that none of the 10M BTC is unrecoverable or in the hands of people with no interest in selling ever.

Well, someone just recovered ~45k... lets pray they don't dump.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101847

That was a very profitable post for me. I plan to dump.

just the 100 coins tho right?

yes. just the 100 + mining results from the weekend.

i wish i had 40K in bitcoins! heh.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: Frankie on August 20, 2012, 05:33:32 AM
alright, just what we need - another scam.

i'm starting my own Bet.  If Matthew N. Wright actually pays anyone that wins the bet against him that Pirate40 paysout i will return 200% to any bet placers. any takers?
I was just going to offer a similar bet, but only even money.

You need to change "anyone" to "everyone," because one payment would make you a loser.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: anu on August 20, 2012, 05:56:17 AM
I get a serious impression that some here believe that Pirate is their savior, that he can throw lightning and part the seas.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: tvbcof on August 20, 2012, 06:41:52 AM
I get a serious impression that some here believe that Pirate is their savior, that he can throw lightning and part the seas.

Pirate has managed to develop a perception of power (like the United States.)  Though it is hard to know for sure, I suspect that this perception is much greater than his actual capabilities (again, not unlike the United States.)

One thing that is clear, however, is that a perception of great power has a deep psychological effect on a certain class of people and that can be leveraged for a lot of purposes...including robbing them blind.



Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: Rassah on August 20, 2012, 07:30:53 AM
Quote
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market.

I think this is a much more significant quote. Isn't this him basically admitting that he's a noob when it comes to controlling/manipulating the market? I'd expect him to really mess up and let it run away from him the first time he's trying to learn how to do it.


Title: Re: Pirate Warned Us
Post by: miscreanity on August 20, 2012, 08:07:22 AM
I get a serious impression that some here believe that Pirate is their savior, that he can throw lightning and part the seas.
Pirate has managed to develop a perception of power (like the United States.)  Though it is hard to know for sure, I suspect that this perception is much greater than his actual capabilities (again, not unlike the United States.)

One thing that is clear, however, is that a perception of great power has a deep psychological effect on a certain class of people and that can be leveraged for a lot of purposes...including robbing them blind.

Extreme claims are absurd. Quite simply, Pirate's operation appears to have been a stabilizing factor since it came into existence late last year. I'd rather have that than uncontrolled serial bubbles causing extreme volatility during an important phase of growth. Concerning as the amount of control is, if it can happen, it will happen.

As the market gains in size it'll become naturally more stable, and it's unlikely that BCS&T would be able to maintain. In a small market, it'd be quite easy for a participant of size to corner the market - potentially one without community involvement.

Question what the alternative would be. I'm sure none of us would be comfortable with Chuck Schumer (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-financial-bitcoins-idUSTRE7573T320110608) running the show.

Quote
<pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market.
I think this is a much more significant quote. Isn't this him basically admitting that he's a noob when it comes to controlling/manipulating the market? I'd expect him to really mess up and let it run away from him the first time he's trying to learn how to do it.

Doubtful. I read it as that being the first time he directly caused major volatility in the Bitcoin market, not that he'd never done a trade before.