Bitcoin Forum

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zig2-hourzczsg2012-07-10zeg2012-08-22ztgMzm1g10zm2g25
phew, back to normal.

We can point to the spec of volitity on the right of the graph in a few months and tell people who missed it about how people were saying it would be the end of bitcoin.

But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.

Thanks for the info elosk.

+1 this is what I think will happen as well.

If we find he sold the majority of the coins already...price will skyrocket...

People seem to trust him greatly on the IRC channels.

Does it follow that when people get there BTC back there will be a lot of selling and the price will decrease?

That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.

I was so close to selling everything on Monday morning :D but luckily I was too lazy.

I've been scammed 10 years ago by Fast Market and Solid Investment :P, total ponzies. They paid 4% a week and were scams. 7 is just hilarious. This is why I believe pirate won't pay.

By everyone I think you mean anyone. 0 people reported paid back so far.

Load up your accounts at the exchanges, we may reap some nice single digit coins.

Meh, price will go down either way.

How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?


Why do you think it will go down if he runs off?

Why would they? If they get paid back, it's not like they got burned.

True, and this is purely speculation, but I believe that after having someone else sitting on their coins for so long and after making large profits, that people will be inclined to convert at least some of their coin to fiat

Simple economics. You increase the monetary base, the value of a unit of currency goes down.

Further more, people will sell out of fear that everyone else will sell. Look at the charts, it will only take a fraction of that 500k BTC to make a significant drop in the rate.

True elosk.

I see absolutely no reason they would want to. I sure wouldn't. Fiat's going down in value every day, why do you think I invested in BTC in the first place? That wouldn't change because I got out of a HYIP without getting burned. (Hypothetically, I didn't invest.)

We're talking about an entire population, and while of course there may be some people who overextended themselves to take advantage of the interest and desperately need some cash, I wouldn't expect it to be the majority.

Because the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to invest for the interest rates? (I'm not saying all pirate investors were like this, but some must have been.)

Loss of confidence, hampering the bubble we had.
I think the value without megabulls is below $10.

It's not out of circulation when pirate has it, is it. Isn't he using it to buy and sell too?

Except there wouldn't be an increase in the monetary base. People are just getting loans paid back.

Some people may sell out of that fear - their loss. The charts only show the current orders on the books. They do not reflect the entire user base by any stretch.

The longer this payout takes, the more academic this conversation is, though.

Why would anyone think it was the majority. You're not invested in Bitcoin but you decided to take the leap because of an extremely risky HYIP opportunity? I would think that's almost no one.


Obviously if you remove a big chunk of the the population that values Bitcoin, the market price drops. But you can't. So the only value that matters is the one that reflects the behavior of the entire population.

While some may lose confidence, I think there is a fair sized group of people that will want to make back what they lost.

Also, jwzguy, while yes, there are many who are people like you who are investing because of a loss of confidence in fiat, there are others who invested purely to make a profit. Since they will have made significant profits thanks to Pirate, I think that many of them will want to get out of this somewhat volatile market so that they don't risk losing these profits.

More like you're invested in bitcoin already & find this opportunity which you like so decide to invest in even more bitcoins. Opportunity is now gone so you sell off the extra bitcoins.

Or you had wanted to sell off bitcoins but didn't because they were earning good interest in this scheme of pirates, but now its over you sell them.

Mind you if the current price is low people might decide to keep them for now. Seeing as the price hit $15 recently it might be hard to sell for half that.

The thing I find untenable about this scenario is that you've got people who you're saying -weren't- interested in investing in Bitcoin (because otherwise they would just leave profits in BTC) who want to get out.

Bitcoin is already seen as a very risky investment by many many people. It takes a lot of time and research to understand the merits and gain confidence.

So these people are going to jump into who aren't BTC people are now not only going to dump their money into BTC, but also a HYIP?

I don't buy it. Again - sure, maybe a handful exist, but to say that it would be enough to crash the market seems like a very wild and unsupported leap.

This is a much more reasonable stance (also one that's completely different from what people are saying) and it doesn't point to a market crash. People are always selling what they can't afford to keep invested. And I completely agree, why panic-sell at 10 when we just hit 15?

I don't think there's anything to worry about unless everyone is jumping to wrong conclusion at the same time - in that case, yes, I'm worried. But hopefully people are smarter than that. Either way, I think it will at worst just be a bump in the road, and I won't be selling a single bitcent.

You assume people (as a mass, not as individuals) are sane. You will have a long line of people getting huge chunks of coin, one after another. If 1% of the BS&T refunds get sold off, prices will drop. If someone was to sell theirs before that, and buy theirs back after that, they would benefit from the drop in the middle. All it takes is on large sell... and everyone goes "oh crap, it's starting... SELL SELL SELL!"...

As long as people don't lose faith in the currency, it's all a temporary flux.

Im slightly remembered on the flash crash


At this time i was trading currencies very heavily, i say its similar because you could smell something is going to happen back then, i was awake like 2 days and fell asleep while it happened,  lol.
So it was here, suddenly people started talking about some mysterious fund that will be payd out, there the market already was tanking.
On the flashcrash people where confused for a few days too.

Okay, last weekend’s panic selling had happened. Lessons are learned. This weekend people should have enough cash on exchanges to hold $5 even if all of the leftovers of this so-called ‘fund’ are smartly used. Greed and panic work both ways – this is a huge gamble for pirate and he may be left with nothing. Most likely he will first, while he still can, pay back select few high-investing idiots to help him to crash the market (and most importantly get him off the hook), then depending on how well the next wave of p&d goes he may actually be able to repay all. My opinion - his chance has gone and it is no longer possible to cause an avalanche significant enough, while the rally back is oh-so-possible. Other people are now aware that he may attempt to do it and he simply no longer has enough funds. I would guess pirate is carefully choosing if/to whom to return their funds depending on what he can do to avoid the consequences.

Also the time limits pirate has given himself were just plain silly. Best would have been to go off the radar missing the dividends payout, work the market, then ‘get better’, pay everyone double, get more funds in, work the market, announce some gratifying circumstances and stop taking deposits, work the market, announce retirement and another ‘manager’, new better terms, work the market, then start again from ‘going off the radar’. The people seem gullible enough :)

Seriously, he will return all or nothing (maybe to some close friends/buddies).
IF his plan is/was to buy back in on a cheaper price, well, it could be tricky.
Its still very interesting ~:)

Of course, everything is fine...

 ::)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zig2-hourzczsg2012-07-10zeg2012-08-22ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gROC

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