Bitcoin Forum

A different look at the Bitcoin market:
http://www.finance-guy.net/finblog/bitcoin-not-a-bubble

it's not a very positive opinion, but I agree that something needs to be done to attract the general masses to use Bitcoin.  Something needs to make BTC more attractive than cash for everyday people.

What kind of incentives do you think would work for the people you know?

For me, the biggest incentive is understanding that governments around the world are getting financed at negative rates, still have deficits and big debts. Add on top of that, their compromise with future pensions that are not included in debt calculations.

Central banks have the biggest balance sheets ever, which it means that in order to increase interest rates they will have to sell more bonds than ever, putting additional pressure on the stability of public finance.

If you can grasp all that, Bitcoin comes as the natural solution.

people around the world are not adopting bitcoin because of those thing in general

1- security
2- regulation

those two thing must be addressed in order to rise the adoption of bitcoin

the secuirty can be done by the exchage(so it's not even a bitcoin fault)

the regulation is on the way on some countries, but need to be speeded up and should be easy for average people, not something like "i need to take note of every transactions" or other things too laborious

Can you explain this bit.  If they are getting more interest from the money people borrow from them, why do they need to sell more bonds?

When you see interest rates barely above 0%, that's an indicator of the Federal Reserve trying to help jump-start growth.

Problem is they can only do this for so long because the entire time they are lending out money so cheaply, they also gain debt.  But, depending on your viewpoint of Keynesian economics, this debt can almost be written off due to the increase in U.S. currency injected into the economy thru these low interest loans.  The increase in supply of the currency also helps negate effects of deflation and lets the currency devalue itself in order to be more competitive as an investment.  Quantitative easing in a nutshell.

When economy and society stabilize, business activities and industrial production is increasing, the masses will ignore the underlying problem created by the centralized govs. Do you still remember the economic turmoil in 2013, and the performance of bitcoin?  But I think when the next economic crisis is approaching, ppl will realize the importance of the bitcoin. The adoption rate will be accelerated a lot.   

Interest rates in the US and Europe is near 0%. To raise interest rates, central banks need to make money more expensive. To make money more expensive they need to make it more scarce. To make it more scarce the central bank needs to sell the assets in its balance sheet and "sequester" the money of those sales.

The balance sheet of central banks are especially high because we come from a debt-shock crisis which is ultimately deflationary, and because of the Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations.

The biggest problem what I think is that this currency doesn't have any legal backing from any Government department of from any country and that is one of the main problem because of which people are afraid to deal in Bitcoin. The second reason could be the less awareness among the general public who usually deal in normal currency. What do you think?

At current stage, I don't think average people will help to improve the bitcoin, majority of people just blindly follow the leaders

All it takes is a couple of whales drive another wave of rally and send exchange rate to 10k+ level. It does not require lots of money and it is easy to do with current low liquidity on the exchanges, they just need to control enough coins before they start. And the best time to start the show is the next reward halving, or when a large brake through in mining technology hit

It's very VERY simple. ATM the bitcoin infrastructure is becoming more and more like the fiat system, profit is everything. The founders, big whales and all people with alot of bitcoin need to come together and start donating a fai amount of btc to non-users, it's the money off us all, yet if some-one wants to step in into bitcoin, they experience alot off walls. It seems to be a rich mans game now, which was never the intent, someone needs to start spreading bitcoin to the masses, by simple donating it!

Bitcoin is as secure as it gets, the problem is people it seems is too dumb to be their own banks ( the general public). Xapo is a good solution for this.

Regulation, it will happen and will being with the Winlevii ETF.

bitcoin isnt a bubble, but some people are stating its acting more looking like a subprime bubble.

how investors get left with nothing, and the valuation is all based on emotions? I saw the thread like yesterday? the op had some good points, but I feel like its a yes and no.

I personally think, its a temporary bubble, and once it has some etf moves thats where things will get interesting in my view since gold has a etf as well.

Bitcoin needs to be adopted and implemented into  popular services/apps/websites to get more popular. Bitcoin also lacks in marketing and advertising, more bitcoin advertisements will help bitcoin go mainstream. More applications and services will be powered with the bitcoin protocol . It just needs more time and you will see that bitcoin will get mainstream.

It really doesn't make sense to evaluate the future of a totally new monetary system on less than 2 years of price performance.

Bitcoin is really the new gold.  How many times in human history does something like gold or silver get discovered?  That is the timespan we should be using.

It should be a matter of time before most investors figure this out.

I would argue that there have been instances when bitcoin behaved in a bubble like fashion, the same as many assets sometimes do. But that doesn't mean that, while the price of bitcoin gets inflated tremendously, there's not awesome technological advances that might one day support that price. Yesterday's bubble is tomorrow's undervaluation. Think about it ... $1,100 a coin may have been a bubble, but when there are double the users, is it that weird to imagine $1,000 as a price? Suddenly it's not a bubble.

Then you haven't been watching it long enough.



Just like fiat but nobody writes stupid articles saying "Dollar has yet again survived after being used to buy drugs, guns and sex" "Dollar associated with Colombian mafia after 20 million was fund in a house along with guns and drugs"

Now, the question is who will take the burden to regulate Bitcoin. That will hell of a responsiblity because it's known that Bitcoin has security concern. There are illegal trades happening all over the world and the payment is happening in Bitcoins.

Again with this non-argument, fiat and CASH is mostly used for criminal activitities, bitcoin is a small fraction of that, it's just not an valid argument...

A simple answer is marketing and maturity.

When a huge corporation officially backs Bitcoin and publicly makes it obvious that Bitcoin is a big player (for example, placing a Bitcoin symbol or "Bitcoin accepted here" banner on the main site or checkout area), I have no doubt it will become way more publicized and used than it is now. I'm annoyed by companies saying they support Bitcoin, but it ends up being something that's just left hidden someplace that no one can seem to find. Just look at sites like Newegg (I think they support Bitcoin? I'm not even sure. Maybe, it was just allowed once at a promotion.). If only they place the Bitcoin amount along with the USD, just imagine the amount of interest generated for Bitcoin. People will then find out through their research or through other people including friends and family who did their research or got their info somewhere else that there are a load of benefits to using Bitcoin. Three particular attractive benefits are instant transactions, very low fees, and immediate and easy usage.

For most people, Bitcoin is interesting, but it's boring, and no one really cares for it. People are comfortable already using cash and their credit cards. Why would they even consider this when they are already happy using what they already have? The way to break this mindset is to make it the next hip thing. That means famous youtubers and large companies promoting it as well as respected and known writers/columnists writing big and continuous stories for it. By doing this, people will begin to recognize and accept the benefits it provides over fiat money.

Bitcoin shows that it is not yet mature enough. It seems most people who hear of Bitcoin read stories about how someone hacked and stole a large amount of Bitcoin that is worth thousands of dollars. People don't yet trust it because it hasn't been around long enough and hasn't really been seriously supported by big players. Everyone is comfortable using fiat money because they have been exposed to it their entire lives. They trust it and feel comfortable around it. National currencies have been around for generations. It's their way of life.

and they are more anon too, because they can be falsificated easily than bitcoin(if we take in consideration a double spend for falsification)

if you are wondering what falsification has to do with anon, i'll explain

some criminal can trade false usd for real gbp or other currency, then converting those locally, and no one will know about that

with bitcoin you can't do such thing without double spending(which as i said above is kinda like falsification)

Bitcoin is a bubble. It's basically the year 2000 where companies become overvalued and such.

It should burst anytime. Most likely during the block halving next year.

The price is decided by the balance of supply and demand! When the block halving happens next year, the adoption rate will be high enough as the bitcoin ecosystem is improving. The supply suddenly halves, the price definitely will skyrocket.

Or miners will stop mining since there are less coins to mine and the transactions will take more, ergo the miners dump all their coins and the price falls. But it's just speculation for now, 2016 will show how bitcoin will evolve.

More coins should be bought than sold each day to cause a price increase, and people aren't buying anymore since they can pay with other methods that are familiar with them. Many bought bitcoin just because the price skyrocketed to $1000 per coin and they thought that it would rise again.

I totally disagree. If it was a bubble it should have burst when it was on it's highest peak. Now there is no point for it to burst.

Nothing. Everything is already there if they take some effort to understand what bitcoin is all about. I'm not talking about the technical issues here like for instance confirmation time but overall how can bitcoin function as a payment currency

I think one thing that's going to have to change is the vaunted anonymity associated with a Bitcoin wallet address. As it stands today, it's like having a massive number of Post Office boxes, with no names attached. The only information associated with a transaction is the source and destination wallet address. It would be like me putting a $50 bill into an envelope, with only my PO Box as the return address, and sending it to another PO Box. It's got all the benefit of cash in that regard. That's exactly why hardly anybody uses cash except for things they walk away with in person. And they want a receipt to deonstrate they paid, in case they want to return it. I am not aware of any significant side transactions that happen with cash, it's all something else, usually with lots of identity info attached.

While there is huge amounts of work to prevent "counterfeiting", and overspending, there's still a lot of trust required to do anything with Bitcoin. Just look at the use of Escrow, and "trust ratings".

Maybe it already burst last year.  ;)
It will take a long time before we see $1000+ bitcoin prices again.

As long as the Bitcoin market price remains at a constant level, it will make a positive impression on the investors mind. So I think bitcoin needs to hold a steady price and it will gain more crowd eventually.

You can tell that they want to regulate Bitcoin, some countries are seeing who can get much money without impediments they have with traditional money. I think it's a matter of time before a government is the first to do something.

I know at least one guy that dont agree with you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Yes, a growing number of people use Bitcoin as an alternative to shady fiat paper. Over time, the user-base will keep growing since people will see value in Bitcoin's huge advantages. For me (and a % of others), having the freedom to use an alternative is important.

Another reason why people aren't buying coins right now is because of its low price. Let's admit it, not every person in this world is willing to take the risk on buying an asset that has a low assurance of making them money. Not all of the people are risk-takers; most of the people tend to follow a path led by successful figures. Remember what happened during Nov. 2013 ATH? The upward price surge isn't only caused by the bots and China, it is also caused by the hype of making some money in bitcoins.

There are plenty of people who start with buying once they see the price is getting up, but the risk there is that you buy in at the wrong moment. (too high)

Which means that there is always risk, buying Bitcoin at the moment of panic is the best option if you want to make good profit.

actually they should buy it because the price is low, there is no other best moment to buy, the problem is that is still too high for them, they are probably waiting for sub 100

Author of that article is just ultra pessimistic about Bitcoin. He said that bitcoin is only viewed positively by 'bitcoin community. And the believe that bitcoin technology is disruptive. "The Bitcoin community has remained faithful that this 'disruptive technology' will someday achieve mass adoption."  He wrote that: "Bitcoin seems to have a knack for surviving bad news. It's been associated with criminals." And Fiats are not associates with criminals? Abandon all hope! Bitcoin is lost, for this guy there was no bitcoin incentives he could follow.

The difference between Bitcoin and Facebook is that anyone knows who the owner of Facebook is, but no one knows who started the Bitcoin revolution.

Last time I checked, websites like e-gold.com and LibertyReserve.com had anonymous owners behind them and they failed.

The price of Bitcoin has dropped massively whilst the USD has strengthen itself against the Euro and worldwide as well.
Yes, people prefer security.

Does it mean Facebook would have a more robust future ahead whilst Bitcoin would constantly become failure? No one knows.
But my personal guess is that the sooner the Fed will raise rates the worse the value of the Bitcoin is going to be because people would prefer solid money with interest rates on top as a bonus.

Why do you think governments should provide any special legal backing to bitcoin, and what do you actually mean by this? The best thing for bitcoin that governments could ultimately do is to make it into a legal tender, but I don't think it will happen any time soon, if ever...

Its absolutely not usefull to use bitcoin for most people and shops.
I posted elsewhere a complete list why.

Everyone i know and their friends and family see bitcoin/crypto as a criminal tool and stay far away from it.
There is so much crap and scamming going on in the crypto world that you can not even find positive news if you wanted it.
Believe me i lost a lot of friends because i am in involved with the crypto industry to make a small profit.

And i disagree fully on the old argument that more is payed in dollars crime related ( because you have no clue how much is used ) , lets make one thing clear bitcoin became also a succes because of the silkroad and other drug related tradings which was being done together with mtgox.
I already have dropped a trader who claimed he sold drugs with bitcoins, this person used tormail and other tor related stuff to hide his identity.
Even the accounts he used from a bank turned out to be from a person who died many years ago (identity theft)
This kinda criminals are very hard to get for law enforcement, because they do use puppets who act in their behalve.
Most of them drug addicts who get a score from the guy who hired them, ofcourse not the real criminal who never shows his face.

Second alot of media already stated that the coins are being used by IS like organisations so i think there must be some incidents where proof has been produced.

So how can you convince people its not as tainted.
Another reason is its too slow if i use my bankcard i can pay here and now instant less than a second at most 25 seconds. Everywhere and anywhere.
How you wanna do that with bitcoin ?!?? and i do not even start about to get the bitcoin in the first place.
 

This is tough to agree with considering what's happened to the price of Bitcoin over the past 15 or 16 months. It may have been a bubble then, but that bubble burst already. It definately can't be called a bubble now.

Yes it has already burst but still the price is still stable for now and bitcoin may have a chance to be rise again but this time hopefully it will fly high to the sky and hope it wont burst again   ;D

Nope. the ATH of 1000 was a temporal bubble (in 10 years we'll be past 10K).

When something is revolutionary people need a big time to properly value it, so the price is crazy. Look at how the all time high used to look like:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/130304145935-value-of-bitcoin-620xa.gif

In a couple of years the 1K peak will look like a small bump on the all time graphic.

bitcoin isnt a bubble, but some people are stating its acting more looking like a subprime bubble.

Seems that it is a long process. If it will happen, transection, buying selling and marketing will also be very easy. But in this case, government is not much interested to make Bitcoin as a legal currency. If government announce it as legal crypto, our dreams will get successful very early.

Well I do think bitcoin is the kind of bubble where you cannot fully make it vanish..it will self..inflate and after a while it will be bigger and stronger...
Bubble just describes the enormous high and downs that we see. .. and I do think that... It is right in calling bitcoins a bubble...
Suddenly the price drops down... In thousands of dollars... And genuinely it is enough to be considered as a bubble is what I feel.

Well they called it a bubble when it went up to 3k$ and above but it has never stopped or burst yet and you guys just keeping calling it a bubble, i hope you will not be left of out of the global bitcoin cake due to your skepticism as bitcoin surges on forward.

If governments find a way how to profit from btc and apply taxes and if this profit would be more than the actual taxes on fiat than it would be an automatic adoption.

I think Bitcoin may be a bubble. But, I know the housing market is definitely a bubble, and that has been going up for 20 years.

I would say yes exactly that's what i am refering to bitcoin because i believe that bitcoin would be a future money in next generation. This is being proven by the value in it. Having a huge increases everyday makes it people would definately a full trust and has a high confidence level.

Yes Bitcoin is not a bubble.
it surpasses the Expectation of a person
that it can have a huge Pump.
and it wont just break or fall with its price.
thats why i want to invest long term in bitcoin.
bitcoin always has a future!

There is not need to incentivize people to use bitcoin people are slowly realizing the reasons, bitcoin is not controlled by governments, you cannot print bitcoin at will and if someone decides to to increase the hash rate bitcoin will just adjust the difficulty, also bitcoin is showing to be a great investment and that is attracting a lot more people to it and soon enough we are going to realize that bitcoin is an excellent store of value as well.

Whether it is a bubble or not is not the most important question right now. There was a housing bubble - that doesn't make houses useless - they just became overbought at some point in time, people still need houses. Similarly, with Bitcoin and crypto -  it becomes a bubble when it is overbought - judging by the fact that less than 1% of the world's population currently use crypto I personally don't think it is overbought - if anything, the opposite.

The fact that there is a limited supply of Bitcoin is hard to believe that suddenly no-one will want it and the bubble bursts.
I believe that IF this is a bubble and it bursts and prices fall back to wherever there will be people with FIAT ready to pounce on the low price and that will pump it right back up again.
I also think that this block halving expected next year will be a M A S S I V E factor as the supply will be suddenly be constricted ans supply and demand will kick in.

Bitcoin is a bubble right now. I can guarantee you of this. The price is going to drop a lot. It is a guarantee in economics and everyone who is intelligent knows it. What goes up, must come down and Bitcoin is going straight up, and it is going to sometime go straight down - only a matter of time.

Look at the price now? I don't think it's a buble because of the price that continue increase and No one will control it, I am amaze of what bitcoin reach now.

Bitcoin is a bubble because it exploded many times after it got crazy and there are no signs of stopping it now it's going crazy again so it will explode in a few days. I think that no one should buy bitcoin at this time to avoid losing your money.

People have this kind of urge to actually be jealous about something that others earn it more nice and easy. For incentives you say earn more money that you think is enough to motivate them it is like a show money it is only effective for those people around you while on the internet  it is hard to persuade others that doesnt have enough knowledge about what you are talking.

If everyone suddenly stop buy bitcoin then the bubble will pop, so dont stop buying/selling/trading and keep the market healthy, bring in new people and bubble will never pop or pop in a distant future

Bitcoin is really something that new prospects.
This should be a matter of time before most investors think of this.
An I think it very safety  investment

I do not think bitcoin is a financial bubble because no financial bubble can survive for years like bitcoin. Bitcoin exists because there is a real need for bitcoin in the community so its value has steadily grown over the years. In the future, I think bitcoin can be a whole world currency.

yes some people says that but for me bitcoin is like a bubble bubble that have a strong type because sometimes bubble is decreasing but it is always inccreasing and it will never pop because bitcoin bubble is so strong this  is why people gets a lot of money they buy when it decrease and they selling it when it pump so high.

USD is actually known as a currency which is used the most in criminal activities. This activity is even covered by the government which is involved in the money laundry itself from the countries like Iraq and similar. Criminals have a big market in which they are trading with their own illegal goods and the government is using Bitcoin only as a cover to mask the true currencies which are used the most.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
False news that is also supported by the government is actually influencing the modern society with the bad stories about the Bitcoin. Actually, this same false news is giving the popularity to the Bitcoin which will sooner or later be accepted by them all.

I would say that there is a part of me where I feel like bitcoin will suddenly dump. We cannot the fact the this might happen specially it ia kniwn to be volatile. With the same hope of seeing it on top there is also a high possibility of sudden dump. I believe seems to be a bubble, but since it has been develop over time, we could expect this coin to soar even though there will come a time of dropping.

Bitcoin and blockchain will be the future of money as well as the world financial sector. It's not a bubble. It is true that Bitcoin is facing many hardships by the government in the prohibition. Bitcoin is also used for money laundering by some organizations as well as individuals, so Bitcoin is considered bubble is easy to understand.

Really like Bitcoin Bubble. Its price never decreases, sometimes it grew up. It's a great challenge for the economy and the guarantee that the smart guys know better. Bitcoin's quality is reduced by almost updating and again, so this caution should be in everyone.

Bitcoin is never a bubble because if bitcoin was ever a bubble the bubble would have bursted long ago, bitcoin is an essential commodity and an assets with great value and which value is determine by the demands for it in the market. Bitcoin is not like the ponzi scheme which can burst and at the end scams it investors.

It's crazy when you like Bitcoin as a bubble. What will happen if the bubble burst? It will disappear completely, and bitcoin too, if it goes away, we will lose all the money.

But the reality is, this isn’t bubble. We all know about bitcoin that it is just a coin who doesn’t have stable lifestyle. It is always moving up and goes down for nothing. We know the results it has made for all the users. Mostly users have got fantastic results from it and they are living a happy life after investing in bitcoin. So don’t just get confused by this volatility, bitcoin isn’t bubble.

Bitcoin is not a bubble, and its price of 15-20 thousand dollars is real? People bought bitcoin not because of any of its consumer or other qualities, but only because of the fact that at that time it brought a big profit only because the demand for it increased. There was a vicious circle: an increase in demand led to an increase in prices, and a price increase generated additional demand. This is a classic inflation of a financial bubble and nothing else. Thus, the price for any crypto currency or any physical thing like tulips can be inflated and nothing good has ever happened. A significant increase in the price of bitcoin will simply accelerate its destruction. Therefore, the discussion of the cost of bitcoin in one hundred thousand dollars, it's just a myth, and if it does, it will lead to sad consequences for a short time.

I think bitcoin is not like bubbles I see bitcoin just like the waves because the movement of bitcoin prices up and down when it's high will surely come down and when it is in the base price will certainly be easy to ride again.

Bitcoin indeed not a bubble. It is true that btc is volatile but it has always a potential to bounce back to higher price. This is the best asset why btc is still trusted until this present days.

Bitcoin is not a bubble because if it is, it would have been gone by now. Many government are trying to kill bitcoin but so far no one have succeed.

If all nations will follow the path of unselfishness move of other nations towards Bitcoin like Japan and Germany then for sure many people will join the investments and the possibility to make Bitcoin a world currency will be at hand. Japan ang Germany are using Bitcoin to its fullest capability by letting it to be use by their people at no tax policy that because of this move then probably most of the people will desire to join the invesent making Bitcoin as a bubble will become a 100% impossible.

I agree with you but some people who are against in Bitcoin says that if the government don't accept these currency then it is just a matter of time that Bitcoin will just disappear but we don't want that to happen so let's keep moving forward and support these new technology by introducing it to many people we know until the government notice it that most of their people use these new technology.

Well, bitcoin could be or could not be a bubble. But basically, after how many years of investing and earning from bitcoin, the chances of it becoming a bubble is too slim now.

You can see that after the bitcoin price reached $ 19800, it has continuously declined and depreciated. At present, bitcoin prices have fallen more than 70% and are at $ 6500. Market capitalization is also falling sharply to just over $ 300 billion. I believe these are signs that the bitcoin bubble is breaking.

Bitcoin is a virtual cryptocurrency, or digital asset!
Its total issuance volume is certain. It does not depend on a certain platform but can exist independently. It is a truly independent asset.
BTC has become more and more valuable, it is not a bubble!

It WILL not be a bubble, but actually, now it is a bubble.

If bitcoin is affected because of government regulations or bans, that does mean it is a bubble.

Many good programs or projects had suffered because of such behavior from the government. However, it is quite ironical that some of the governments think that bitcoin is abubble and are thus making those regulations.

Definitely not a bubble. Because, if it were such a thing, thousands would not try to develop this technology. What we really need to do here is how far we can move this technology forward.

Its been ten years already and that span of time ,we can say bitcoin as a bubble because bitcoin has alteady establish its name in the digital world and continue its investment so bitcoin is true and real investments and many have tried already and can testify that bitcoin is not a bubble at all .

The exact bitcoin is the bubble and the bitcoin bubble is breaking, you can see that after reaching the $ 19800 level, the bitcoin price immediately fell back strongly, the market is in the long-term bearish and bitcoin prices. has been declining continuously during the past 8 months. I believe that at this time you should only trade the day to be profitable with the least risk.

If bitcoin is a buble, Goldman Sachs and Rockefeller Fund wont interesting to invest on crypto market. I think the best incentive for bitcoin is government regulation and if that happen, big investor will be more confident to investing their money

For me, seems that it is a long process. If it will happen, transection, buying selling and marketing will also be very easy. But in this case, government is not much interested to make Bitcoin as a legal currency. If government announce it as legal crypto, our dreams will get successful very early

The people or organization who are afraid of bitcoin success are calming bitcoin to be a bubble. bitcoin for me is a revolutionary idea that is going to change our life is utilized in a proper way. When Blockchain will be main stream these bubble talks will be long gone.

let people have their own assessment of bitcoin.
whether they regard this as a bubble, a ponzi scheme or bla bla bla
what is clear is that bitcoin is very useful for life.