Bitcoin Forum

A double tap on that low of 166 would be a powerful double bottom pattern reversal.  You know a big bear like this is going to go out with a bang.

In fact, if it bounces hard off that double bottom on strong volume, I could see V recovery back to the all time high in no time

^yep

the more merchants we have, the more selling we have. The more hacks, the more selling.

it's just selling, selling, selling until all our nuts go blue.

The only thing keeping this afloat are the hoarders, of which I am proudly one of them.

In long term hold games like this the more patient win, but sometimes it's good to realize if we are bubbled or not. That is very hard to do tho, and you can risk missing a perfect spot for moon.

When the HODLers start selling the shit will really hit the fan.

When we sell we then buy the same amount of coins at a lower price for profit. A lot more buying and the price bounces back up. Hopefully in the 'V' everyone was talking about ;)

At least that's me being a hopeful.


It's also nice to see a positive post on the speculation thread this time of year!

Hodl for life. I will be waiting with some cash to add to my stash at 166.

just keep in mind that its low only for temporary, because real situations are going need bitcoin in the long run.

Heres a live example of a recent reddit post on what I read of a fiancial adviser.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/32jucl/let_me_tell_you_a_little_story_about_my_day_at/

In my view a bunch of people who dont want that hassle will favor bitcoin.

there is no guaranteed that it will fall lower after you sell, that's the hard part, so you will remain stuck there with your bug or selling at loss

under 166 i would say that you can buy forever, no matter if will keep falling, because the price will be too attractive for every more dump

Optimistic!  This is why I can't understand techincal analysis, the price falling to a low point twice indicates that it will go up in value?
How does that work then?

I still predict $400 thsi summer, but the market sentiment is poor at the moment, and I don't know why.

If it stays over 200$ we are on the latest "normal" 200-300$ area, which is actually OK. Under that value.. it may be rather chaotic and more will lose faith into Bitcoin.
But I don't think that's gonna happen.

All the crying is done by traders that want to earn a few more bucks on the panicking ones.

because people believe it will work. That's the essence of TA, it's just patterns of human psychology, nothing to do with markets. Ridiculous, I know, but often works!

This just doesn't fit with the reality we have observed since November 2013 (although does fit with before then).
Since Nov 2013, we have witnessed a fairly steady decline, through a series of downward steps, from 1,100 ish to 220 today. This process continues, some 17 months after it began.

This is a remarkably slow and predictable bursting of a bubble. Past bubbles, including past bitcoin bubbles, deflated much more quickly, in a matter of days/months. Even historical bubbles, like the tulip bubble, all deflated within a year.

I would have thought that in this age of instant information, bubble bursting should be instant. But no, even after 17 months the realisation that the price is going to fall has still not fully been reflected by traders. Crazy.

It must be due to fanatics, holding up the price (at huge financial loss to themselves), rather than letting it find its new equilibrium level.

It's going to be fun seeing all the weak hands having strokes as soon as we test 1xx$, but im here for long term so that is only good news for anyone like me.

It is not a weak hand one that kept BTC through all that down slide. The weak hands sold at 1100 :)

Yeah that would be so awesome. But I think we'll stop a bit before that
Eur looks like it's kinda bottoming too and btc followed it pretty nicely, mainly because of DXY

Must be nice lol.

Selling at 1,100 is probably the best selling point anyone could of done at the time, cause if you look at it now, youd be crying right lol.

Like the prices are becoming more dirt cheap.

Selling at $1,100 and then buying today would have made me an even richer person if I then held long-term.

No, those people aren't weak hands, they just used the moment as a leverage and wait for another opportunity to again make a profit. At that point in time, they were the luckiest of the luckiest in this world, seeing that you'll get a couple of thousand $$$ for a piece of technology that is worth basically nothing a few years back is already luck, and it doesn't end there. If those people who sold at the ATH returned and bought dirt-cheap coins, they wouldn't get a hard time getting a profit because all they need to do is to hoard and hodl and, profit.

I do agree that remnants of a depressed market lingering for this long is surprising, but a bubble course did take place in a matter of 6 months from November 2013-April 2014. It just so happened that a balancing bull trend overlapped from October 2013-July 2014 (Surprisingly, if you overlay two trend charts that simulate those types of movements and use exponential and stochastic balancing of prices during those two time frames and you'll see a very strong model fit to actual prices).

That said, I think the elongated effect had a lot to do with a significant resistance to prop up price related to news and financial players rather than just fanatics.

Comparing to the last bubble, this time period is similar to how things were in July 2013. The difference is that instead of China and ASICs affecting the trend, it will likely be major financial parties that end up impacting the price trend.

Nonetheless, it is "crazy" how much "faith" still exists, but it makes sense since people in general also tend to believe in weathering storms and similar things.