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Title: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: DeathAndTaxes on August 22, 2012, 02:47:48 PM If there is such high confidence that Pirate will repay everyone in full why are the PPT bonds trading at a huge discount to face value?
Bond Bid Ask https://glbse.com/asset/view/BIB.PIRATE 0.342 0.449 https://glbse.com/asset/view/FOO.PPPPT 0.370 0.470 https://glbse.com/asset/view/TYGRR.BOND-P 0.457 0.615 The market is saying there is less than a 38% chance of repayment in full. The actual number is probably lower because the market is discounting the possibility of repayment + interest and including the possibility of repayment less than full. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: unclescrooge on August 22, 2012, 02:51:50 PM If there is such high confidence that Pirate will repay everyone in full Is there? Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: conspirosphere.tk on August 22, 2012, 02:57:54 PM The market is saying there is less than a 38% chance of repayment in full. The actual number is probably lower because ... and even because now you can buy 1 BTC of Pirate debt for about 40 bitcents and hedging betting 1:1 against Pirate here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0;topicseen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0;topicseen) so to profit either way. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: Akka on August 22, 2012, 02:59:34 PM If there is such high confidence that Pirate will repay everyone in full Is there? They are still worth nearly 40% of their intended value. So the average user calculates with a probability of 40% that pirate will pay. I would say that is a high confidence. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: hashman on August 22, 2012, 03:17:15 PM The market is saying there is less than a 38% chance of repayment in full. The actual number is probably lower because ... and even because now you can buy 1 BTC of Pirate debt for about 40 bitcents and hedging betting 1:1 against Pirate here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0;topicseen (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0;topicseen) so to profit either way. Good point.. if you believe either of those "assets" will pay you back for your "investment". Maybe Satoshi will come back and print out some extra coins cause these toxic debt bubbles are too big to fail? Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: bitcoinBull on August 22, 2012, 04:18:20 PM If there is such high confidence that Pirate will repay everyone in full Is there? They are still worth nearly 40% of their intended value. So the average user calculates with a probability of 40% that pirate will pay. I would say that is a high confidence. If it wasn't for MNW's counter-offer, they would be worth much less. Pirate bonds are more like MNW-hedges actually. People wonder about MNW's motivations. I think part of it is to soften the blow of pirate defaulting, for community morale and for a PR spin. Good point.. if you believe either of those "assets" will pay you back for your "investment". Maybe Satoshi will come back and print out some extra coins cause these toxic debt bubbles are too big to fail? lol :D Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: GernMiester on August 23, 2012, 01:07:54 AM Absconding with BTC and nothing can be done.. What a great currency? Steal as much as you can and nothing happens. Turn it into real cash at an exchange and laugh all the way to the bank. The funniest part is folks keep banking coins in places and they keep getting hacked. Uhmm yeah sure hacked.
Here is how it goes.. Guy makes lets say 75k a year. Guy creates BTC site. People like it and leave BTC there. Guy wakes up one day and sees a years salary or more sitting on his site in BTC. BTC is "hacked" AKA transfered to his wallet. Guy claims hackers. People bitch and complain. Guy cashes out BTC that was 'hacked'. People do it again at another site and are suprised, rinse and repeat. Call the cops and tell them your BTC was stolen. Tell us what they say besides WE CANT DO ANYTHING. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: bitcoinBull on August 23, 2012, 01:21:41 AM Call the cops and tell them your BTC was stolen. Tell us what they say besides WE CANT DO ANYTHING. They say the same if it was cash. true, BTC is not EFT that visa can claw back. its a double-edged sword. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: ArticMine on August 23, 2012, 01:36:59 AM There is also the danger that pirate will pay but one cannot move move the Bitcoins fast enough in a falling market in order to sell them. There is a very real danger here of a sharp drop in the BTC / USD price should pirate pay up.
Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: bitcoinBull on August 23, 2012, 01:52:41 AM There is also the danger that pirate will pay but one cannot move move the Bitcoins fast enough in a falling market in order to sell them. There is a very real danger here of a sharp drop in the BTC / USD price should pirate pay up. Lol, don't worry about getting them back. more comforting to worry about what the price might be after you get them back. yea, think about the second scenario instead. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: ArticMine on August 23, 2012, 02:12:05 AM I am not invested at all with Pirate, but I actually expect he will be paying his lenders in full; however even with the 100% expectation of Pirate paying in full I can see why these bonds would trade at a discount.
Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: sunnankar on August 23, 2012, 03:44:13 AM I am not invested at all with Pirate, but I actually expect he will be paying his lenders in full; however even with the 100% expectation of Pirate paying in full I can see why these bonds would trade at a discount. There are opinions people have and then there are opinions people have that they will wager their money on. Which opinions do you think more accurately represent the people's opinion on what they think will actually happen in contrast to what people want to happen? It appears that your opinion that Pirate will pay in full on time as agreed, or even partially, is not strong enough that you will actually risk your bitcoins to profit from the opinion. The market thinks with a 60% probability that Pirate will fail to pay either principal or interest. It is pretty simple: If you think Pirate will pay up then buy the bonds and make a profit. That is what markets are for. Those whose opinions are correct profit and accumulate capital while those whose opinions are miscalculations lose capital. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: iCEBREAKER on August 23, 2012, 06:15:32 AM Maybe Satoshi will come back and print out some extra coins cause these toxic debt bubbles are too big to fail? +5 Funny, +5 Insightful I've been considering the possibility that Satoshi was/is feeding pirate, and their goal has been to accelerate the movement of fiat money into BTC. Title: Re: What is better than 7% per week? Why 293%+ per week of course ... Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 23, 2012, 04:57:58 PM Maybe Satoshi will come back and print out some extra coins cause these toxic debt bubbles are too big to fail? Good line...and highlights the silver lining to the series of scams and scandals in the Bitcoin universe. Failures have not been rewarded. Sky has not fallen. And price has stayed high. Which lends evidence to the idea that economies become more resilient and self-correcting when people are fully exposed to the consequences of their actions. |