Bitcoin Forum

Just my theory.  It happened this way at the last halving.  It will happen again.  It will become more real to people at less then a year.  Miners will start to price it in to there sells.  People will start to hoard again anticipating a price increase.  There will be more adoption in general.  The prophecy will self fufill.

Well we are getting close:

http://bitcoinclock.com (http://bitcoinclock.com)

15 months away

or it could take a bit longer?

if it did this last time, it doesnt mean it`ll do it again.. things change drastically on the day to day basis.

Some guy predicted a price point on $200ish only 3 months ago stating it`ll be at the end of this year, but it came way earlier then anticipated.

so the price will start to rise at the end of summer basically? around august? as far as i remember was never raised during the summer

The last few months have been a hard lesson in taking any 'historical' BTC data remotely seriously. It'll be made up as it's going along for a long time to come.

I've never really understood the 'sell in may and go away' thing. That makes humans sound like herd animals who migrate to the Antarctic to rut and then return to the internet in autumn.

Still, it's a predecent but a deeply weird one.

There won't be a specific cut-off date or a moment where people will decide to buy BTC in anticipation of the next block reward halving! It is already priced in to a certain degree and will continue to being priced in even more. It's a very gradual process!

True. There will be exactly ZERO halving effect. We already know the moneysupply for the next century!

Its probably helped to slow down the bear market a little but people still live day to day, week to week, month to month, year to year.  If you look how quick good and bad news moves markets despite fundamentals the same.  Im not sure the next halving is yet priced in much.

Yeah, a 101 in economics is past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. I am tho in agreement of those that view a very long stable, low price on the 2xx territory. This is great news for anyone that is in here for the long term.

if really good pops up it will go up but most people have already bought in and are waiting for the price to go up. too many people waiting is currently the reason for not going up.

Even if there were technically no reasons for it, never take for granted the psychological factor. It is HUGE and can make prices fluctuate insanely quick. Everyone has that date in mind, that alone is an indicator.

Litecoin halving is in 4 months. Could give us some good insight.  Currently trading at $1.40 for future reference.

That's true. Litecoin has been sliding downhill with no brakes. I think Bitcoin will be different. The bitcoin market is more active and users still want to mine and hold bitcoin. Users can at least buy things with Bitcoin.

litecoin case is different, after the big dump that happened, litecoin is practically died, it was ignored like no tomorrow, the incoming halving will not change much, i'm pretty sure, at best a fake pump, psychology pump i would say, everyone know that a pump could happen so they buy and thus making the real pump with this move

also in terms of adoption bitcoin is still too behind, not really a good comparison to see what will happen with the halving of bitcoin

This may have been the case the last time, but that was propelled because of run-ups due to transitions from optimized GPU to FPGAs and then to ASICs. That provided an "immediate" infusion of cash because of exponential gains from anticipated ROI. This in turn, created an incentive for a price "pump." The timing of the block-halving only compounded the effect. Without it, the block-halving wouldn't have had as much effect.

That said, because there currently isn't any type of catalyst for a run up this time around, I don't anticipate any type of significant bullish rally even at the point 12 months before the next halving. The only thing that would change this is if venture investments began to payoff soon, and it doesn't look like that'll be the case.

If I had to venture a guess though, there may be some rally activity some point early next year shortly. And this time around it will be due to invested capital; the block-halving will just serve as a buoy.

It's an anticipated event, so it should already be built into the current price.

Well it's effectively impossible to exactly pinpoint how much the halving is priced in at this point, really! I think we will see the biggest influence of the halving only when it actually has happened.

There are still new people joining the Bitcoin market every single day. They maybe haven't even heard about Bitcoin a week ago. Those people can't possibly have exerted buying pressure on the market already. We can't 'price in' the whole money supply of the next 100 years of Bitcoin right now. Impossible.

So the current predictions point at July/August 2016 for the block-reward halving? I think it will have quite an impact on the price. And I even believe we may not see that impact till Winter 2016/2017. Sure, it will be priced in to some degree, but the waning supply will only manifest itself truly after it really has happened!

Any justification to back up your theory other than relying on historical data? I think at this point, everything is still mere speculation. Even after the halving has occur, there will be no guarantee that price will bounce back again even though the supply and demand consideration is telling you it will. There are many factors that we haven't consider. I think what's possible is that we will likely see the price adjust itself slowly towards the upside but it will be a very very slow process. And again to reiterate my point, there is no guarantee it will happen.

I mean ... We are animals and we do behave in predictable fashion. Wealthy investors like to spend their time on their yachts in the summer. Their kids are home. It's about spending those millions. Then when Autumn returns, it's about replenishing the bank account.

The halvings of other coins haven't demonstrated a relevant impact on the actual coin that halved. Im just hopping with Bitcoin it is different. Technically it doesn't mean much as it's a self regulating system, but there is a psychological pressure with it that might sky rocket the price. I have definitely the price of the halving marked on my calendar.

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

We always get good news but nothing happens to the price. Sometimes it even goes down bizarrely.

I'm thinking along these lines as well.  I don't understand how people could think that the next halving (or all of the future halving events) is already priced in.  Starting that day any miner will be bringing in ~1/2 as much they did the day before.  That's pretty significant.

Good news aren't doing anything to the price anymore, all the pumps that follow the release of good news are just artificial and caused by traders who try to make a small profit. They will never lead to a sustained growth faster price will always go back down.

but not all the good news, were bad news in disguise, some of those did actually brought some fresh air to bitcoin, by raising the number of transaction per day(which is a value that sometimes is even more important than the price), especially those news about new merchants adopting bitcoin as a payments

what it should really happen is a chain between those merchants, that will prevent the dumping on exchange, basically these merchants should buy products from another merchants that accepted bitcoin as well

It will take time for all those good news to stack up and just make it stupid as hell to dump the coins. As more VC money keeps getting in and as more banks around the world keep bailing out we'll see rallies. It's just math.

New don't do the trick anymore. Either the adoption really goes up, or BTC becomes a respected investment at Wall Street, otherwise I don't see any reason for the price to go up until the halving actually comes closer. Anyways, it will be priced in continuously.