Bitcoin Forum

the willybot knocked the price around and sucked in alot of speculators.
assuming most were in it for the short term gain and not because they fundamentally thought bitcoin itself was a great idea then most will have been exiting since Nov 2013.
so in thinking about where the price might go now it seems sensible to try to guess when the bot fooled the market.
if it was not until that month then Oct 2013 is a point we might go back to - it had an opening price of $123 and closed at $198. we are not far off the closing price now. However the price jumped 61% in that month so it looks like some decent amount of speculation was going on.

so if people want a rough guide to where we might end up

- if you are bullish then it maybe say $170-$200.
 - if you are bearish you might go back in time a bit to feb 2103 when the opening price was $20 and closing $33 with a similar % rise for the month (65%). so the price now might go to say $26 -$34.

time will tell but since despite all the positive things coming up in the next 12 months and which are far more positive than bitcoin's prospects in 2013 we have no decent demand happening.
so I see at least the price going down another $30-$50 easily and if no buyers move in a slow drop down to sub $100. :(
 

This is a very long term game. When everyday people start seeing the benefits of BTC over the traditional methods it will happen. Meanwhile take it as a blessing to be a pioneer and get to be able to own entire BTC's without it being mission impossible. Don't stress, it took 20 years for Average Joes and Plain Janes to start sending emails to each other.

I'm bullish on bitcoin long term and have to say that we are at about the right price. I agree with you that the mt gox wily bot misrepresented the price until mt gox crashed but in april of 2013 the price did reach around 226 which was quite a big jump from 13 earlier in the year in Jan and that was due to an event like Cyprus. Bitcoin offers an alternative to the banks and gold and more millennials and people from different countries around the world will keep adding to the user base once they see the benefit just like I did. It only takes and event like Cyrpus when their government froze their citizens bank accounts to cause people to search for alternatives that grant them more freedom and this technology has that value. It just needs to be easier to use for the non tech savvy which I think is not to far off. 

I know people in Greece that are storing their money literally under their sofas... and I know some (the non clueless) that are using BTC to store their wealth, which is a place you can trust a lot more right now even with the given volatility given its early age, than governments that can make you lose tons of money.
People will need a couple years more of being smacked around by institutions until they learn the lesson.

I think the last price of the final goxxing is a reasonable target to where the other exchanges might end up.

If I can say my personal opinion, we will never de-goxxed the gox the curse will follow forever bitcoin ad it will never expire or end.

When Bitcoin rises to its true value i think we will see a degox ! :D shaking out all the weak hands is a streneous task but the market needs to get ready :D

Bitcoin needed Gox'ing as a hard lesson learned.  They always say history is the greatest teacher, and though painful, was necessary for Bitcoin to survive and thrive.

With the advent of Noble markets, Gemini, imminent launch of GBTC and COIN, it's all a matter of time before the memory of Gox will be in the rear view mirror.

What is Karpeles doing? Isn´t it funny, some people steal bread to survive and get in jail and some people steal millions and swing their dicks in freedom...

Point made :D Gemini is currently regarded as the one Bitcoin market which will push it up in the eyes of investors and bitcoiners alike :D

Here a tweet by karpeles:

https://i.imgur.com/VvIb62r.png

https://twitter.com/MagicalTux/status/583819665572409345

Hopefully one day the truth comes to light, whatever it actually is. Bull runs, Bots, USG confiscations, undercover DEA agents, frappachinos, accusations left, right & center......Will make one hell of a story

forget those money, if they come back it's all good

But if that was the bottom then we dont stay at bottoms very long & probably end up between that bottom and previous ATH.

Damn good question.  I think the whole Mt. Gox debacle without question set the entire bitcoin adoption timeline back at least a good 4-6 years if you take into consideration both the bot manipulation of price and then alleged "hack".  Sure hope that guy gets prosecuted but really starting to doubt anything will happen to him.

Well you are right to point out that most of the speculators would have been exited since Nov 2013 but within that timespan until now, I'm sure there are other new people moving in and at the same time going out as well. Don't forget compared to almost two years ago the infrastructure and businesses wasn't that well developed so there is another thing we need to consider. At this point, anything is still not certain although we can continue to speculate.

bitcoin and drama are well connected it seems. after mtgox bot willy another bot might pop up and cause huge manipulation. some chinese exchanges already manipulate their volume.

Yes, that would be the EW count where wave A ends with that bottom, and wave b somewhere in the middle of what we had last year.

Sooner or later people will forget about Gox and SR and other bad stuff and BTC will continue its mission towards moon.

Or does anyone remembers about the other Gox hackings, or when the BTC network got 51%ed, etc?

I'm not sure if the Gox disaster / willy bot still matters much today. Fundamentals have changed a lot - mostly improved (VC funding increases, new companies joining the Bitconomy).

It's hard to say when the correction will be over. Sentiment is still quite positive. However sentiment was always quite positive compared to other assets - so I don't know if it can be used as a contrarian indicator. I think it's likely, that we'll see new lows. But I don't expect prices sub-$100.

For trend reversal we'll have to wait for Wallstreet and the next reward halving.

ya.ya.yo!

The biggest problem with Bitcoin is the myth of holding the coins will make the owner rich

unfortunately those holding will end up being the masters of the demise of Bitcoin

before the masses pile in,it needs to be spent and proven to be worth something   

what sort of worth does holding Bitcoin create,sod all ;D

I disagree. Hodling increases the value of Bitcoin, because there are less Bitcoin available for sale. It's the same with precious metals: Most of the theoretical supply is not available at the market, because it is held by central banks, private individuals, and investment vehicles. This has a positive effect on valuation.

Selling Bitcoin via payment processors that immediately cash out to USD at any price will lead to a declining fiat/Bitcoin exchange rate. Spending Bitcoin only makes sense if the receiver does not buy fiat with it.

ya.ya.yo!

yeah ok, but if everyone is holding, the price can't increase for sure, there must be some sort of equilibrium between holdin,g buying and selling

If you mean by 'degoxed' 'going up again' then I guess as soon as the long-term downtrend is being broken. When this actually happens depends on the date and the lines you're drawing and most likely is somewhere between $250-$350.

I think it will be another slump for BTC's price in 2015.  That's just me...  I know others think otherwise and have valid points and arguments behind it.

Aside from hodling I paid for a VPS using bitcoin this eve. It is the future

The smart money is quietly in this period, if we have 1 last sharp drop then fine but its no big deal if right after we are testing ATHs few months later.  Whales are controlling the market perfectly keeping the prices down to accumulate.

This is just what I said in another thread. That is the correct analysis on the current situation. Too bad most of the average joes in here don't get it. You have to think with a whale mentality to understand what's going on, otherwise you get lost as you think from your POV only.

I really don't know what to believe, it could very well be that whales are trying to accumulate even more but there's no proof of that. If they were really buying that much that would be an increase in buying pressure and the price would have to go out to some point, you can only keep the price low for so long.