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Title: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: paulie_w on August 23, 2012, 12:09:56 PM people keep saying "silk road is only 2% of bitcoin transactions"
how does anyone know that? doesn't he keep a currency tumbler going, and i'm sure he never uses the same receiving address. how do people know anything about it? Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: RaTTuS on August 23, 2012, 01:50:40 PM 65% of stats are made up on the spot
Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: stevegee58 on August 23, 2012, 01:54:23 PM Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: elux on August 23, 2012, 03:43:28 PM Like this: http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.7139
Quote Traveling the Silk Road: A measurement analysis of a large anonymous online marketplace. We perform a comprehensive measurement analysis of Silk Road, an anonymous, international online marketplace that operates as a Tor hidden service and uses Bitcoin as its exchange currency. We gather and analyze data over eight months between the end of 2011 and 2012, including daily crawls of the marketplace for nearly six months in 2012. We obtain a detailed picture of the type of goods being sold on Silk Road, and of the revenues made both by sellers and Silk Road operators. Through examining over 24,400 separate items sold on the site, we show that Silk Road is overwhelmingly used as a market for controlled substances and narcotics. A relatively small "core" of about 60 sellers has been present throughout our measurement interval, while the majority of sellers leaves (or goes "underground") within a couple of weeks of their first appearance. We evaluate the total revenue made by all sellers to approximately USD 1.9 million per month; this corresponds to about USD 143,000 per month in commissions perceived by the Silk Road operators. We further show that the marketplace has been operating steadily, with daily sales and number of sellers overall increasing over the past few months. We discuss economic and policy implications of our analysis and results, including ethical considerations for future research in this area. WIRED article: http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-08/06/silk-road-drugs PDF: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.7139v1.pdf Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: Gaff on August 23, 2012, 05:00:14 PM Or if you can't be bothered to read it:
They automatically crawl the silk road and look at feedback for each listed item. 1 feedback = 1 sale. Multiply by the price of the item and tada! you have the turnover. The fee schedule for listing on SR is known so you can also work out how much (gross) income SR is making. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: justusranvier on August 23, 2012, 05:20:33 PM When talking to people whose objection to Bitcoin is illegal activity then Silk Road is only 2% of the Bitcoin economy.
When talking to people whose objection is that Bitcoin is all speculation and no commerce then Silk Road is 98% of the Bitcoin economy. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: HeavyMetal on August 23, 2012, 06:25:01 PM When it comes to regular money the black market is probably one of the largest economies on Earth.
Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: istar on August 23, 2012, 08:52:29 PM Or if you can't be bothered to read it: They automatically crawl the silk road and look at feedback for each listed item. 1 feedback = 1 sale. Multiply by the price of the item and tada! you have the turnover. The fee schedule for listing on SR is known so you can also work out how much (gross) income SR is making. Cant this be gamed? Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: Gaff on August 23, 2012, 09:22:08 PM Or if you can't be bothered to read it: They automatically crawl the silk road and look at feedback for each listed item. 1 feedback = 1 sale. Multiply by the price of the item and tada! you have the turnover. The fee schedule for listing on SR is known so you can also work out how much (gross) income SR is making. Cant this be gamed? It has some flaws certainly, the paper describes in more detail how they try to work around these problems so the curious should start by reading there. I don't think there's any serious issue with gaming, I guess you could buy an item cheaply then up the price shortly afterwards to make it appear like there's more turnover, which might not get spotted depending on how often the web-crawler runs. But really why would you bother? Bear in mind it costs a non-trivial amount of money to become a SR vendor in the first place. More likely there's privately listed items that don't get picked up at all. Sure it's not perfect but as a method of calculating a ball-park figure for how much SR turnover there is, it seems pretty reasonable. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: robbonz on August 23, 2012, 11:26:35 PM New Scientist said Silk Road total turnover for dealers was in the region of 11,000 BTC per DAY if i remember correctly
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2012/08/silk-road-bitcoin-illegal.html Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: kangasbros on August 24, 2012, 06:59:02 AM When talking to people whose objection to Bitcoin is illegal activity then Silk Road is only 2% of the Bitcoin economy. When talking to people whose objection is that Bitcoin is all speculation and no commerce then Silk Road is 98% of the Bitcoin economy. LOL. It should be noted that not all users leave feedback. I have noted that with iPhone/Android apps maybe 1-10% of users leave feedback. Maybe with drugs it is a different thing, but I doubt it... Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: Marco Polo on August 24, 2012, 08:23:41 AM When talking to people whose objection to Bitcoin is illegal activity then Silk Road is only 2% of the Bitcoin economy. When talking to people whose objection is that Bitcoin is all speculation and no commerce then Silk Road is 98% of the Bitcoin economy. LOL. It should be noted that not all users leave feedback. I have noted that with iPhone/Android apps maybe 1-10% of users leave feedback. Maybe with drugs it is a different thing, but I doubt it... I would think that ratio is much higher on SR since the vendors rep are what customers look to when deciding what vendor to purchase from. So the vendors want to get as many good feedbacks as possible, they often ask the customer to give feedback before the item has been delivered(!). Still I dont think 100% of the customers leave feedback. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: repentance on August 24, 2012, 08:46:19 AM I would think that ratio is much higher on SR since the vendors rep are what customers look to when deciding what vendor to purchase from. So the vendors want to get as many good feedbacks as possible, they often ask the customer to give feedback before the item has been delivered(!). Still I dont think 100% of the customers leave feedback. For some reason I was under the impression that SR requires you to leave feedback before releasing the funds from escrow. I do agree that there's no way to gauge the amount of private sales activity, so figures based on public sales will always be on the low side. That true of Bitcoin itself, too, though. Not all trades go through exchanges and private trades can't really be tracked. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: Adlai on October 09, 2012, 02:57:12 AM It should be noted that not all users leave feedback. I have noted that with iPhone/Android apps maybe 1-10% of users leave feedback. Maybe with drugs it is a different thing, but I doubt it... Next up: the iPhone 5, featuring new apps such as Siri, Safari, and Silk Road. Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: vokain on October 09, 2012, 06:36:11 AM a lot of transactions take place outside the SR interface too I'd presume.
Title: Re: how is it possible to see how much activity and trade silk road has? Post by: Adlai on October 09, 2012, 07:14:00 AM a lot of transactions take place outside the SR interface too I'd presume. I presume otherwise:
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