Bitcoin Forum

Here is today's interview with XAPO's CEO:

http://www.strictlyvc.com/2015/04/20/wences-casares-on-the-future-of-xapo-and-bitcoin/ (http://www.strictlyvc.com/2015/04/20/wences-casares-on-the-future-of-xapo-and-bitcoin/)

It was interesting that he quoted an estimated 12 million of peolpe using Bitcoin today.
As people pointed out on Reddit, it is overly optimistic number to say the least.

BlockChain.info had 70K wallets in April 2013, then it hit 1 Mil wallets in Jan 2014 (less than a year x 15 times growth). Now, another year+ has passed. How many wallets Blockchain now has? I would estimate at least 3+ millions, or more. B/c the growth slowed down in 2014 with the BTC price crashes etc. So just one provider has 3+ millions.

There is also CoinBase, Xapo, Circle, CoinKite, whole bunch of mobile Android wallets, iOS wallets, and everyoine else.

So maybe 12 millions is a stretch, maybe it is just a sum of estimated amounts of wallets from all major providers.

It would be nice to know the exact number of people who use Bitcoin, but at this point we could only "guestimate" it, still I think people need to pronounce those larger numbers in the press, business community, etc - to spread Bitcoin awareness and interest. In this case, it was published in StrictlyVC who serves business / entrepreneur / investor community.

So having a higher (althouth overly optimisctic) number like that quoted is a good publicity for Bitcoin, and it needs good publicity to somewhat recover after less than favorable 2014

If anyone has more accurate numbers in terms of how many people worldwide are engaged with Bitcoin, please share your numbers / guestimates!
Thanks!


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IMO this figure is overestimated, 1 million people is possible. 12 million is impossible. One guy can open many wallet in blockchain, I registered 3 wallets in blockchain in 2013, but I seldom use it.

No way can it be close to 12 million users. The amount of people that may have tried it once and never used it again, could be a pretty big number. But number of currently ACTIVE users must be below 500,000 IMO. There are only ~750K addresses (http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=350000) with a balance over 0.1 BTC

It shouldn't be discouraging, shows we have a lot of room to grow.
The average number of transactions per day keeps rising.

8btc: Chinese Bitcoin Community Report

Highlights:
 ~250k Chinese crypto players
5000+ QQ groups
Top 3 cities: Beijing, Guangzhou,Shenzhen
Derivative/Futures markets are expanding.
Top 3 altcoins: BTS/DOGE/YBC
30% of all players had mining experience
8k qq members remain active on a daily basis.
30k active traders
10% renewal of the whole community
Some players have returned to the crypto market after 6 month absence.

Full report:
http://www.8btc.com/community-report (in Chinese)


And the number has been shrinking due to the recent rise of A share market.

There's growth, just look back,
3 years ago:
https://i.imgur.com/0WOVHXF.png

Today:
https://i.imgur.com/lLOOnCY.png?1

This is not happening in the real world at this point. We all should do so much more to and be recogonized in that this will be huge.

We really would need the figure to go up 100 times to make it barely mainstream so it has taken a very long time, a few years just to reach a million users?. I really thought by now there would be a lot more Bitcoin users and enthusiasts. Looks like we have a long road ahead of us convincing the world of this new technological advancement. :'(

Do we need to lie about the total number of people who use Bitcoin to progress? Nope... we could simply demand that more vendor's and merchants accept the currency as a payment method, and the number will increase by itself.

By demand, I acctually mean... a lot of people target the same merchant, and "ask" if they accept BTC.... once enough people asked, it would spark the interrest of the merchant, to accept it. {This is a tried and tested way to do it}

My guess is, about +/- 1 milliion people world wide is using Bitcoin. {The 12 million reflect multiple wallets from the same people on different platforms}

Hey guys, thanks for sharing real data

@coinableS - great insight & data

@hl5460 - I've followed you on Twitter

Yes it looks like 12 mil number was pulled out of thin air...
You are right, more needs to be done to promote BTC to mainstream users.
I am actually launching few projects that would have an impact in terms of bringing a lot of new TECHIES into Bitcoin, but that would take another thread

I think in 2015 Bitcoin will rise again, and it will get to 12 million users eventually :)

 

That is kind of depressing. If there were one million Bitcoin users that equals roughly 0.0142857% of the worlds population.

81% of foreign-exchange transactions use the U.S. dollar, 10% use euros and 7% use the yuan. An estimated 2.2 billion people worldwide (almost one third of the worlds population) transact using the dollar at least once annually. 

Some people might say that's rather low considering the other currency market and world population, But look at it in this way, for a currency that's been only 6 years old, It has sure grown a awful lot. So all the best for the ever growing Bitcoin Community.

Is it possible to count online bitcoin wallets as they are being controlled partially by 3rd party service. But you can't really count other types of 'standard' wallets like Bitcoin Core (qt), Multi Bit, Electrum, Armory etc.
This statement of Xapo CEO is overoptimistic in my opinion. As we have to think of scenario when one person can hold multiple wallets in result effectively doubling users base, and that is not so uncommon practice.

Even that isn't really a viable option - there will undoubtedly be some people with multiple accounts on these online wallet services (which by the way you shouldn't use unless you want to lose those coins) and some of these people may even overlap between services. Unless you were to somehow get the ID of everyone on top of a complete list of what addresses they own you'd never be able to properly document the number of users - just guess. Personally, I think even 1 million is a little high but it's all speculation without any hard evidence.

in fact i read that there were only 2.5 millions users using bitcoin, now to go from 2.5M to 12M there is a long way, not possible in just few months

xapo isn't well informed, or is just increase the number to obtain more popularity...

I agree with you, 12 million is impossible, XAPO's CEO is bragging about the number of BTC users, so he can sell his company to investors in the future.  ;D

Less than 500k is reasonable and logical. Some people just register online wallet but never used, it doesn't mean they are all btc users.

I'm not sure if addresses are providing the correct number. E.g. I have a few cold wallets for long term storage and a couple of "hot wallets" for everyday use. So I'm using nearly a dozen of different wallets.

Yes. I have registered almost every big btc exchanges, and I have multiple deposits addresses, I have created over 20 addresses, but only a few is usually used. Many people do like me, it is obvious that the number of address is not equal to actual users.

agreed with you many people doing like this made account on online bitcoin exchange for test purpose but only very few people keep balance or use them, i think so 750k is much reasonable amount of people with balance in their wallet and they regular user of btc but 12 Millions seems fake and doubtful.

I think you people look at this the wrong way. Not reaching 20 mil yet is not a problem. It s an opportunity.
Go promote and educate.

Nah, according to my Pegapothesis, which is proven by both the New Testament and Thermodynamics, once we see tens of millions of users the price of bitcoin is going to explode.   
 
I would estimate between 500,000 and 1,000,000 users currently which means that bitcoin is actually fairly priced at current levels. 
 
The interesting part is that once we start adding more users however, things are going to go to plaid, really really fast.   
 
https://i.imgur.com/mwhx4cp.png

At first I thought you were an overly enthusiastic bitcoin believer. Now I'm starting to wonder if you're an elaborate troll trying to make people think all bitcoin believers are crazy

Interesting graph and table, if BTC has 2 million users, BTC price may be 920 USD. If BTC has 20 million users, BTC price may be 10k USD? Seems logical. :o

12 million is definitely not possible. Check this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Only 689,000 people are having more than BTC0.10 with them. He probably overestimated the number by a magnitude of 20 times.  ;D

Probably that 12 millions is more about propaganda and raising awareness than real numbers. ...or that Xapo guy simply don't know what he talking about :).

Dont forget he runs a BTC based business. What kind of marketing would it be if he would not lie?

Personally for me, in just one year time span, I believe I've used more than over 100 wallets addresses cause I prefer using change addresses and transfer my funds around just to protect my privacy. Assuming that a quarter of the bitcoin user follow this same trend, that number projected by Xapo is definitely 25 times lesser and it could be even far lower. It's definitely not than high.

giving out an optimistic number might entice investors, but giving out an outrageous number would turn people away because they think you're not being genuine and trustworthy.

Serious investors used to do their own research before jumping into something new, so this greatly exaggerated number must be something for entice Average Joe. You are right on the outrageous number, such statements are only good for questioning the bloke's credibility or competence.

There were a lot of promotions here and there - if you make a new Xapo account you get some satoshi for free.
The actual ID is not checked, you can fill whatever name you want.

If such promotions are still up, soon Xapo will claim more users than the population with access to the internet.


Obviously the numbers are wrong. Sorry, Xapo...

I agree that 12 million is inflated number... There are probably less than 1 million active users(People that are spending at least once a week), but 4-7 million BTC holders due to services like changetip and coinbase.

Proof-

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Coinbase has 2,100,000 unique users (2,700,000 wallets) as they follow KYC and cannot lie about these numbers due to the amount of investors doing their due diligence and they aren't even available in some of the largest countries of bitcoin investors like china and uk.

Many people like myself have given out 100s of gifts in bitcoin with changetip and coinbase and we see who accepts it or not. Most of these non -bitcoin users accepting it are simply sitting on the bitcoin because they cannot be bothered with 5-50 usd of btc at the moment but are aware that it may go up in value so are willing to spend a minute setting up the account to accept in hopes that it does appreciate and not to be rude to their friendly gift giver.

Less than 1 million definitely. Due to security concern (loss of coin, loss of encryption password), people that putting serious money in bitcoin must have some IT security competence, that limited the number of active users, that won't change over night

It's still very early stage of adoption and the main drivers are entrepreneurs, since bitcoin will enable many things that they can not do at a bank. But for average consumer, the only meaningful use is to act as a medium of saving, or speculation, because their income is received in the form of fiat money

How many of those 2.7 million sign ups are not bitcoin USERS? Perhaps they received $5, $10 worth of BTC from somewhere and immediately cashed it out to fiat, and coinbase is the easiest way in the US to 'cashout'.  In my book that is not a bitcoin user. I went kayaking once, but I am not a kayaker.

If we will really have 12 million users this will be really great but I don't think so.
Probably a lot less people actually using bitcoin on a daily basis.
Until ''big merchants'' accept bitcoin and we become mainstream, this fact will not change.

I already admitted that many of those 2.1 million users aren't active, read my post. A majority of my projected 4-7 million worldwide holders are essentially acting as speculators with some starting to become regular users like myself due to the benefits and savings realized(20-30% off everything from amazon is very nice).

Most user will not waste their time verifying their bank with coinbase or figuring out how to sell or spend their coins.... but will just go through the 1 minute process of claiming the gift many of us send them. People that regularly give out gifts know this because we see from coinbase and changetip when a gift isn't claimed(thus the people don't go through the 1 minute process of primary KYC) and than we know they aren't selling it because:

1) We understand human psychology and know how lazy people and how averse they are with learning to use new systems. Primary KYC is easy , learning to sell and spend BTC is a whole other step. Claiming and sitting on 5-50usd of BTC is easy, spending it may not be worth their time.

2) These are our friends and family members who we often speak to who admit they are just sitting on the btc in hopes that it goes up.


The beauty about all this is that many of these holders (speculators) will convert overnight to spenders , users, and advocates during the next dis inflationary bubble ... which is likely to happen in 2016.

Bottom line is to continue to follow Roger Ver's lead and give out bitcoin and spread the wealth around as this is one of the most effective methods growing adoption.

It's impossible to estimate the exact number of Bitcoin users, only a rought estimate can be drawn throught number of transactions,  numbers of exiting addresses, number of newly created addresses.. the answer is somewhere between all that data.

Good stuff. One of the best explanations of correlation between the price and user growth recently.

The good news is that we are doing fairly well for such a small group of active users and many inactive ones can become active spenders overnight.

The promise is this can happen even if we don't grow in numbers (we are though) as the next bubble will bring a lot of renewed interest into our space and speculators will become active users while they cash out on part of their investment.

12 million people is just too much :(
Total bitcoin addresses is only 69,839,103 (source (http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=350000))
And usually people use more than 20 addresses

So, 12 million people use bitcoin is impossible

;D it might not be 12 million peoples.
Instead, it might me that 12 million bitcoin addressess are used. ;D
(I'm not sure)


~Rude Boy

I think that number is bit exaggerated number as I myself have about 5 to 6 wallets and many other people also do the same, I think the rough  estimate will be somewhere 1 to 2 million users, which by itself is a huge accomplishment, considering before 4 years only few thousand people  had bitcoins, soon in the future in the coming decade it can reach a half a billion to a billion people.

There are a lot of websites, such as gambling sites, which create a new wallet for each of their users. So it might be much more than 20 wallets per Bitcoiner. Take my case for example. I have created at least 50 Bitcoin wallets myself. And I have indirectly created at least 150 more wallets, through gambling sites, exchanges.etc.

There's nothing to worry about because people will buy anything. Eventually there will be millions and millions of Bitcoin users.

Ty Warner (creator of beanie babies) reports that more than a billion Beanie Babies have been sold and more people worldwide own them than double the population size of the USA. There's even a market for counterfeit beanie babies. If people can throw away masses of money on something as stupid as an expensive stuffed animal then Bitcoin will grow. It may take 20 years but it will grow.


http://www.tycollector.com/images/value-b13.jpg

I think that is highly excessive, I estimate that there are around three million or four people that use Bitcoin, I estimate it with this stasts
https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users

But, there's proof, like there's proof that this forum has 492,030 real members. Make that 492,031 real members, for one just joined while penning that last sentence. Multiply that by 24 like forums and voilà! there's your 12M.

Fake edit: Make that 492,032 real members.

Not all of the people who has used Bitcoin at least once in their life are continuing to use it right now. Personally, I know a lot of people who gave up on using Bitcoins, due to various reasons. I know at least half a dozen guys, who lost almost all of their coins in the Mt Gox robbery. None of them are active in the Bitcoin sector right now, and most of them are fiercely anti-Bitcoin. And I know many more people, whose wallets were stolen by thieves. They also gave up on Bitcoin usage.

Still, for my part, despite losing more than half of my coins in a scam, I am continuing to collect BTCs.  ;D

i estimate 2-6 million users but not over 10 mio   :-X

This would mean every user owns about one Bitcoin on average. I doubt this information. If there would be 12 mln users the price per coin would be much higher.

if 12 million people are using bitcoin.. then on average people are only investing $263 into bitcoin..

bitcoins in circulation:14,078,100
possible population: 12,000,000
=average person holding: 1.173175btc each
bitcoin price $225
average investment $263.96 per person

just wait until just 1million financial firms invest $10k each.. the price will rocket

Hey no need to overthink it. There might be simpler explanation. Like getting involved in the forum, having some exposure to projects in my signature, and also discussing an important topic.
Look how collective intelligence of people here has surfaced much more accurate numbers than those quoted in XAPO's interview.

Again, I really like that table. 500k people to and we ll have that snowball effect, the price ll keep going up and up.

I think bitcoin will be very expensive when there is "halving". so better prepare funds from now as much  8)

We need to have price increase well before that. Halving takes place in over a year and we need to have lots of new users by then.
This coin need acceptance and not technicalities to let it grow.

so the role of the government is now becoming very important, as it determines the legality of Bitcoin in a country

12 million people is a generous number I personally think.  I mean Coinbase just barely passed 2 million wallets and Blockchain.info 3 million wallets recently.

I'm fairly certain we're closer to half that 12 million figure or like 5 million total global, world wide.

Not sure where Xapo got their info, but Juniper Research said we'd crack my 5 million user figure by year 2019:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102512655

Yeah i also think the same, 12 million is a far dream now, but bitcoin adoption is sure on its way, its justa baby give it some time to grow nd soon it will be a grown man. Within a decade we can see the uprising in the adaptability and the number of users  of bitcoins can even cross 100 million+.

The data I would actually like to see is the amount of people that is going to be using Xapo or services like it, vs the amount of people that decide to be their own bank (control their own wallets).

The number of actual user and the number of accounts is not same. Because everyone have multiple account. So, 12 million people, it is unbelievable.

That estimation is simply impossible, it must be around 3 million,you just have to look at the blockchain.info wallets stats

Bitcointalk.org the central place for Bitcoin discussion has about 500k of users. I would claim that at least 1/3 of all Bitcoin owners are members of this board. So, I guess there are around 1 to 1.5 million (deducting multiple accounts on BTT) people in Bitcoin so far.