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Other => Off-topic => Topic started by: Opnsrc on April 21, 2015, 08:29:25 PM



Title: Just want to vent.
Post by: Opnsrc on April 21, 2015, 08:29:25 PM
No purpose to this post, I just want to vent.

I have been messing around with some Dust coins across different dice games out there.

I found one that has a Auto-bet feature that I found interesting. I pre-loaded the account with 0.011 btc about a week ago, configured the Auto-bet feature so that it starts with a base bet of just 5 sat, If it loses than it doubles and goes again, if it wins it returns to the base bet amount and repeats.

5 Full days this bot ran, Millions and millions of rolls. It dragged itself from 0.011 btc to 0.064 btc, it already exceeded my expectations.

The bot was running 24 hours a day for the full 5 days, I checked on it a couple of times a day just to see how its doing.

Well less than a hour ago I checked on the bot... WHILE I was watching it in real time I saw physics break down, 21 loses in a row....21.
Let me show you what 21 consecutive loses looks like,

0.00000005 
0.00000010
0.00000020
0.00000040
0.00000080
0.00000160
0.00000320
0.00000640
0.00001280
0.00002560
0.00005120
0.00010240
0.00020480
0.00040960
0.00081920
0.00163840
0.00327680
0.00655360
0.01310720
0.02621440
Than 1 final losing bet of about 0.0115 to bring my final balance to 0.00000000


Ohhhhhh I hate myself so much now.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Lethn on April 21, 2015, 08:37:38 PM
Some people are born unlucky, this kind of thing is precisely why I rarely rely on luck, it always backfires.

My favourite one is on RPGs.

"You shoot <NPC> in the face at point blank range"

"You miss"

^ Nearly every fucking time, this is one of the reasons I hate turn based RPGs.

Now I know we're dealing with money in your case but it's the same sort of thing, with money in particular you should never really on a percentage of success to generate you an income but consistency instead. Gambling is no way to make money and should be done for fun no matter what people say.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Opnsrc on April 21, 2015, 08:50:20 PM
Some people are born unlucky, this kind of thing is precisely why I rarely rely on luck, it always backfires.

My favourite one is on RPGs.

"You shoot <NPC> in the face at point blank range"

"You miss"

^ Nearly every fucking time, this is one of the reasons I hate turn based RPGs.

Now I know we're dealing with money in your case but it's the same sort of thing, with money in particular you should never really on a percentage of success to generate you an income but consistency instead. Gambling is no way to make money and should be done for fun no matter what people say.

It was for fun, and if I would of lost the 0.011 early on than whatever.
But after 5 days I started to feel foolishly proud of its success, started looking at the possibility of running multiple of the auto-bet bots under the same configuration.

Anyways, what I am trying to say is that I originally had no faith in this experiment. But after nearly a week I started to build a sentimental attachment to the experiment, something that I extensively try to avoid.
So now that it went from a on fire success, to absolute failure in 5 seconds, This thing that was suppose to mean nothing has now ruined my emotional state for the rest of the day.

Gah...just got to walk away.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Karpeles on April 21, 2015, 10:22:02 PM
Why don't you put in your autobet an option to spot when you get big profit ???



Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Lauda on April 21, 2015, 11:22:31 PM
Some people are born unlucky, this kind of thing is precisely why I rarely rely on luck, it always backfires.

My favourite one is on RPGs.

"You shoot <NPC> in the face at point blank range"

"You miss"

^ Nearly every fucking time, this is one of the reasons I hate turn based RPGs.

Now I know we're dealing with money in your case but it's the same sort of thing, with money in particular you should never really on a percentage of success to generate you an income but consistency instead. Gambling is no way to make money and should be done for fun no matter what people say.
I can confirm this. If it was raining bags of money one day I would get squashed by the bag and die. Everyone else would get rich.
This is why I don't gamble. I've never had an experience in which I could say: "Wow, I was really lucky.".
Sorry OP that you've lost. People do need to vent sometimes. I do it by turning on airplane mode and relaxing somewhere, usually nature.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Mike Christ on April 21, 2015, 11:39:16 PM
Common saying: house always wins.  Given enough time, you'll always come out negative.  My advice is to not gamble this way; if you're gonna gamble, you may as well put your money into business, at least it's not totally random then.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: rigel on April 22, 2015, 03:43:52 AM
21 losses in a  row is  quite unusual: about 1 possibility out of 2000000. But if you make millions of rolls, it becomes likely.

Bots are best way to lose everything. The only winning strategy is: make few rolls and when you are winning just stop.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Vod on April 22, 2015, 03:47:39 AM
21 losses in a  row is  quite unusual: about 1 possibility out of 2000000. But if you make millions of rolls, it becomes likely.

I think it's more probable that the site owner flagged the account to only lose.  Can't say it doesn't happen.    :-\


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: freeyourmind on April 22, 2015, 04:03:31 AM
21 losses in a  row is  quite unusual: about 1 possibility out of 2000000. But if you make millions of rolls, it becomes likely.

Bots are best way to lose everything. The only winning strategy is: make few rolls and when you are winning just stop.

Yeah, the odds are against you with using martingale long term.

The problem with martingale is that when you hit the losing streak, you lose it all.  So something to consider is making periodic withdrawals, so that when you eventually lose (and you will), you will have withdrawn some funds before that time.  Even then, in the long-run it's a losing strategy and you need to "beat the odds" to win.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: TheButterZone on April 22, 2015, 04:22:32 AM
You too huh?


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: bitfancier on April 22, 2015, 08:41:35 AM

I have been messing around with some Dust coins across different dice games out there.


What's Dust coins?..


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Darude Sandstorm on April 22, 2015, 09:42:00 AM
What you did is use a classic martin gale. It does seem like a foolproof strategy to win at first but the longer you keep going eventually you will hit a massive losing streek. It's just math/odds. You need to know when to quit whilst ahead but it usually never works in the long run and you will lose at some point.


I have been messing around with some Dust coins across different dice games out there.


What's Dust coins?..

Just small amounts of bitcoins that you usually get from faucets etc.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: TYT on April 22, 2015, 11:02:27 AM
21 losses in a  row is  quite unusual: about 1 possibility out of 2000000. But if you make millions of rolls, it becomes likely.

Bots are best way to lose everything. The only winning strategy is: make few rolls and when you are winning just stop.

Yeah, the odds are against you with using martingale long term.

The problem with martingale is that when you hit the losing streak, you lose it all.  So something to consider is making periodic withdrawals, so that when you eventually lose (and you will), you will have withdrawn some funds before that time.  Even then, in the long-run it's a losing strategy and you need to "beat the odds" to win.

Martingale always suckers people in because when you start it you always end up winning but peoples bankrolls are never big enough and eventually they will bust when they hit that losing run and it's always a massive shock but sometimes you just gotta learn the hardway.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: freeyourmind on April 22, 2015, 04:08:04 PM
21 losses in a  row is  quite unusual: about 1 possibility out of 2000000. But if you make millions of rolls, it becomes likely.

Bots are best way to lose everything. The only winning strategy is: make few rolls and when you are winning just stop.

Yeah, the odds are against you with using martingale long term.

The problem with martingale is that when you hit the losing streak, you lose it all.  So something to consider is making periodic withdrawals, so that when you eventually lose (and you will), you will have withdrawn some funds before that time.  Even then, in the long-run it's a losing strategy and you need to "beat the odds" to win.

Martingale always suckers people in because when you start it you always end up winning but peoples bankrolls are never big enough and eventually they will bust when they hit that losing run and it's always a massive shock but sometimes you just gotta learn the hardway.

Dude I had one time where I started my session with a losing streak that got me right to zero, but normally there are a series of winning bets that make you feel confident that you'll beat the odds lol.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Pingu on April 22, 2015, 05:13:46 PM
Dude I had one time where I started my session with a losing streak that got me right to zero, but normally there are a series of winning bets that make you feel confident that you'll beat the odds lol.

You must have had a small bankroll or were betting too big. IF you start off small you'll manage lots of wins... until you don't that it is hehe.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: b!z on April 22, 2015, 05:16:18 PM
Some people are born unlucky, this kind of thing is precisely why I rarely rely on luck, it always backfires.

My favourite one is on RPGs.

"You shoot <NPC> in the face at point blank range"

"You miss"

^ Nearly every fucking time, this is one of the reasons I hate turn based RPGs.

Now I know we're dealing with money in your case but it's the same sort of thing, with money in particular you should never really on a percentage of success to generate you an income but consistency instead. Gambling is no way to make money and should be done for fun no matter what people say.

Do you believe in fate?


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: nor9865 on April 26, 2015, 05:41:18 AM
I had 43 losses in a row once and the 44th won me 0.3 so I guess I can't complain to much on it.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: kolloh on April 26, 2015, 07:13:42 AM
I had a bad situation the other day doing 1% on dice slowly increasing bet sizes. Eventually I busted, so I bet another time on 0 and it was a winning bet. That was frustrating lol.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Ghris on April 26, 2015, 07:22:11 AM
Currently I am in the same boat, but haven't lost yet. Thanks for inspiring me to withdraw half of it :P

23.6 mbtc deposited and doing a 9.9% chance of winning 10x. 250 satoshi basebet. Upon losing I increase bet 10%.

Today I woke up with 75.9 mbtc. Not a bad run at all, but now will withdraw half of it or so.



Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: freeyourmind on April 26, 2015, 04:30:21 PM
Dude I had one time where I started my session with a losing streak that got me right to zero, but normally there are a series of winning bets that make you feel confident that you'll beat the odds lol.

You must have had a small bankroll or were betting too big. IF you start off small you'll manage lots of wins... until you don't that it is hehe.

Yeah pretty small bankroll of 100,000 satoshi and starting bet was 1000 satoshi which is relatively high...7 bets to lose it all.

The point is the probability of hitting the losing streak is low, but it's possible for the streak to be the very first series of bets.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Cryptowatch.com on April 27, 2015, 12:18:26 AM
As already said in this thread, you can't beat the house in the long run, so any such project to be profitable, means you have to get out while you are ahead.

There is a story of a big roller. He won shitloads of money at a Vegas Casino, so much that it really hurt the casino, but the casino was smart.

The man, content with his winnings, decided not to play roulette or any other casino games again.

The casino, determined to win their money back, knowing this man was a gambler at heart, put a limousine with a driver outside his house every friday with an open offer to fly to vegas for free and live in a luxury suite over the weekend for free. After a while, the temptation was too hard for the man to resist, so he accepted the offer, then went to Vegas, and lost everything..

There was also this man who sold everything he owned and then put everything on red on the roulette, he won.


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: bitfancier on April 27, 2015, 03:44:09 PM
What you did is use a classic martin gale. It does seem like a foolproof strategy to win at first but the longer you keep going eventually you will hit a massive losing streek. It's just math/odds. You need to know when to quit whilst ahead but it usually never works in the long run and you will lose at some point.


I have been messing around with some Dust coins across different dice games out there.


What's Dust coins?..

Just small amounts of bitcoins that you usually get from faucets etc.

thanks, I thought at first it's some new Altcoin  :)


Title: Re: Just want to vent.
Post by: Opnsrc on April 27, 2015, 04:06:59 PM
What you did is use a classic martin gale. It does seem like a foolproof strategy to win at first but the longer you keep going eventually you will hit a massive losing streek. It's just math/odds. You need to know when to quit whilst ahead but it usually never works in the long run and you will lose at some point.


I have been messing around with some Dust coins across different dice games out there.


What's Dust coins?..

Just small amounts of bitcoins that you usually get from faucets etc.

thanks, I thought at first it's some new Altcoin  :)

Yeah, just my way of saying I was using a small amount of crypto to gamble with. In this particular situation I used about $2.50 for the week of rolls.