Bitcoin Forum

it took 37 days to go from 600 to 500
it took 75 days to go from 500 to 400
it took 38 days to go from 400 to 300

lets assume that the price at lower values means the oscillation of 75 will be twice as long ie 150 days

150 days since january 2 is about 1 june.

so I am calling 1 June as the date we leave $200

that means of course we also break $100 about 7 august 2015

breaks every rule of maths/analysis but if you are felling nervous this will put you in a real spin.  :-*

if you are sensibly holding while all this rides out then you can also sensibly disregard this post and leave it to the weak to run the price for a while :)

By the time a pattern has been detected, it's too late with bitcoin :P

It'd be interesting if it came true, but I wouldn't bet on it, at least not based on this.

This sounds logical but yeah, probably we will continues to hit lower and lower target, because the situation is not that good than we think. Be careful if you're a Bitcoin holders.

We'll hit 100 real soon, no need to wait until June 1st.

Shorters are the real winners in bitcoinland, hodlers are losers. Sell your coins while you can.

Nice pattern you observed there but I think it's just a coincidence. And it might happen that in next term (according to this pattern) it goes up. You never know.

And 38 days later we'll break $0.

Yes and 75 days after that if we sell we have to pay the buyer  ??? This maybe a good prediction but i will just right it of as fud because this is what i do lol


Very good advice! I am not sure it really matters now though does it, telling people to be careful when it was dropping from 800-900 would have been good timing but low 2's?

 not sure at what price it became apparent what mt gox had done to the price but at the 800 level it had to drop fast as it was all artificial. People knew that. Drops at 200 level however are harder to forecast as we may be closer to true levels such that they even exist yet for bit coin


 

i don't agree, your, are just speculation, and there is any logic in trading bitcoin, it's all about casuality, there too much emotions in trading too, all those prediction are usual or bullshit, or pure luck

i'm inclined to think that the price will stay around the current value or slightly better by 1 june

people who are holding, and i mean really holding for the long term , they are well aware of the possibility of bitcoin going lower. but the long term return is making everything worth it.

Yeah i dont think its a legit pattern to box the price in $100 chunks like that. 

Id be shocked that we are below $200 in june, even if we drop before i think we'll be back up above $300 by then.

We will be under $100 way before 1st of July..
Pressure is building up really strong.. upcoming crash is going to be devastating.

I know this is just the speculation forum, and I do encourage posts like these, but there's effectively no justified TA behind those predictions. Yeah, they are simplified patterns, but nothing more, really. You always have to factor in that there will be an incredible demand as we're approaching levels below $220.

You wrote this before or after being heavily intoxicated? It doesn't make sense for the price the to sub $100 and you know that.

I believe he is strongly attacking Bitcoin over the last weeks of months. It's an uncommon sight to see a Legendary member to posts stuff like this, but who knows what has happened. For all we know he may have lost his coins or sold them in 2011. :/

by your rule price will be negative somewhere this year ???

lol OP didnt consider volatility when making his prediction, there are many news events which may see prices go too the moon this year if they are successfull :D

Riiiight.

Isn't it time for another Kwukduck failed doomer prediction thread?

I guess we will never know what his purpose exactly is. But some people are willing to go extremely far into making people believe Bitcoin will fail or lose nearly all its value.

I know there are plenty of bears active in the speculation section, but not many are this desperate as kwukduck.

What is the OP doing wasting time here posting when he/she could be selling everything to short into oblivion?

It's already in the bag - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqwd_u6HkMo

I agree - as i said in the original post it is does not make any sense  - it is just a fun prediction I have made up from looking a a few previous time/price points. But I do think it will be soon below $200 and easily go to under $100. That is because there is no new demand and at some point those who bought in the gox bubble will realise that and sell most of what they are still holding (as they are speculators not holders).
I have always believed that if we had not had the gox type events the price now would be $60-$100 having risen slowly to that point.

I disagree there will be incredible demand if it goes under $200. Who would that be? if you believed in the longer term price of bitcoin being great (as I do) you would be buying at $250 or $220 as when bitcoin is big you gain will still do very well.
$200 will not bring in new buyers. It may mean a few existing people with bitcoin buy a few more to help the av cost of their holdings but the total volume will be small. It might delay its decline for a month or two but no more.

Bitcoin history showed us when the price dropped from $31 to $2 nobody bought it at say $8-$10 on the way down which would be roughly the equivalent to today's $200 mark. They let it go to the bottom.  Maybe when the twins exchange is up and running new demand will come in but it may take some time to move the price.
 
But this bitcoin so who knows?

We have been to 160 and bounced back but I don't see that being taken into consideration. Fact is yeah, it's slowly moving downward, I don't discount the fact that one day it might even reach 100 but I'm confident once it really hits the bottom level, there next pattern should be up. Statistics data in the past have shown that and proven that sometimes it is at best unreliable and price have known to bounce back when it is least unexpected.

Aww, well... There will be demand below $200 because there are so many people who bought all the way up to almost $1200. They perceive today's prices as 'cheap' and consider Bitcoin to be 'undervalued' - and whether they are wrong or spot on... no one knows!
Yeah, the bubbles of 2013 may very well have been artificially created by Gox's Willy. But there are trendline-predictions that basically say that we're back on the long-term exponential support line right now, if you chose to ignore the 'gox-bubbles'.

I'm bullish, at least long-term, but we've seen rebounds before, just take a look at the charts. From what the past is telling us, it really is most likely that we'll be falling down at some point and go even lower. On the bullish side: It seems to have become a lot harder for the bears to push us down and they can't do this infinitely long. They will also run out of money at some point!