Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: finkleshnorts on August 27, 2012, 04:52:30 PM



Title: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: finkleshnorts on August 27, 2012, 04:52:30 PM
If pirate thinks he can still manhandle the market (as he has done more than once), then he will try it again.

One of these fridays, I expect Pirate to post a message something like this:

"Ok folks, I now have enough coins to pay back all of my lenders in full. I just have a couple more things to iron out, and I will begin repayment within 24 hours. I will have all accounts settled by Sunday night. Thank you for your patience and good faith in this ordeal."

Of course, he won't have any coins, but his plan is to cause the market to panic sell before his investors have a chance to, and pick up a lot of cheap coins.

Just a thought. Hold onto those coins!


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 04:58:23 PM
If pirate thinks he can still manhandle the market (as he has done more than once), then he will try it again.

One of these fridays, I expect Pirate to post a message something like this:

"Ok folks, I now have enough coins to pay back all of my lenders in full. I just have a couple more things to iron out, and I will begin repayment within 24 hours. I will have all accounts settled by Sunday night. Thank you for your patience and good faith in this ordeal."

Of course, he won't have any coins, but his plan is to cause the market to panic sell before his investors have a chance to, and pick up a lot of cheap coins.

Just a thought. Hold onto those coins!

I bet he makes the announcement Thursday instead so it isn't as suspicious!


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Piper67 on August 27, 2012, 05:01:37 PM
His problem is that right now there's a lot more money waiting in the wings.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: tvbcof on August 27, 2012, 05:06:29 PM

I'm guessing that if the guy says much of anything it will be that things didn't go quite as planned and payouts will occur as conditions allow.



Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 05:48:37 PM
Lol, maybe you are right! Pirate getting ready for this weekend?

100k moved somewhere (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/17417954/3d0131b8ea3f432857b6dd9d734802dd9b5216387fcac96a6d9bc2b9eb52a71c).


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Micon on August 27, 2012, 05:57:11 PM
Lol, maybe you are right! Pirate getting ready for this weekend?

100k moved somewhere (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/17417954/3d0131b8ea3f432857b6dd9d734802dd9b5216387fcac96a6d9bc2b9eb52a71c).

he's getting ready for 1 hr from now.  6 confs and it's getting shot on Gox.  Watch the sell orders.  Price recovers in a day or so IMO


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 05:58:14 PM
Lol, maybe you are right! Pirate getting ready for this weekend?

100k moved somewhere (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/17417954/3d0131b8ea3f432857b6dd9d734802dd9b5216387fcac96a6d9bc2b9eb52a71c).

he's getting ready for 1 hr from now.  6 confs and it's getting shot on Gox.  Watch the sell orders.  Price recovers in a day or so IMO

That's what I'm afraid of, I sold a few minutes ago just in case.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: byronbb on August 27, 2012, 06:01:41 PM
He mad a bad mistake telling everyone he was closing down before he was ready to. He tipped his hand and he's getting squeezed by other market makers. OR the whole thing is a scam.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: JompinDox on August 27, 2012, 06:02:26 PM
So Gox knows the true identity of Pirate, I would guess?


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 06:05:18 PM
So Gox knows the true identity of Pirate, I would guess?

Or pirate just has a fake identity to use lol


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: augustocroppo on August 27, 2012, 06:09:34 PM
Lol, maybe you are right! Pirate getting ready for this weekend?

100k moved somewhere (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/17417954/3d0131b8ea3f432857b6dd9d734802dd9b5216387fcac96a6d9bc2b9eb52a71c).

That address does not belong to Pirate40 or to any of his associates.

That address is controlled by a standalone user.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 06:16:40 PM
Lol, maybe you are right! Pirate getting ready for this weekend?

100k moved somewhere (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/17417954/3d0131b8ea3f432857b6dd9d734802dd9b5216387fcac96a6d9bc2b9eb52a71c).

That address do not belong to Pirate40 nor to any of his associates.

That address is controlled by a standalone user.

How do you know this?


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: augustocroppo on August 27, 2012, 06:18:50 PM

That address do not belong to Pirate40 nor to any of his associates.

That address is controlled by a standalone user.

How do you know this?

By investigating the address transactions and the taint analysis.

The user even likes to play the Satoshidice game.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: humanitee on August 27, 2012, 06:19:24 PM
Taint analysis is the best analysis.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 06:21:11 PM

That address do not belong to Pirate40 nor to any of his associates.

That address is controlled by a standalone user.

How do you know this?

By investigating the transactions and the taint analysis.

The user even like to play the Satoshidice game.

Ah I'll take some time and read through the 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM thread, is there anywhere else I should go to learn more?


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: augustocroppo on August 27, 2012, 06:28:52 PM

Ah I'll take some time and read through the 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM thread, is there anywhere else I should go to learn more?

Give it up that thread, is full of disinformation and useless speculation.

This is a better starting point:

http://toolongdidntread.com/category/bitcoin/

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions

http://bitcoinstats.org/



Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: bitarrow on August 27, 2012, 06:31:32 PM

The user even likes to play the Satoshidice game.

who doesn't?  :)


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Yuhfhrh on August 27, 2012, 06:34:01 PM

Ah I'll take some time and read through the 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM thread, is there anywhere else I should go to learn more?

Give it up that thread, is full of disinformation and useless speculation.

This is a better starting point:

http://toolongdidntread.com/category/bitcoin/

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transactions

http://bitcoinstats.org/



Thank you!


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: DeathAndTaxes on August 27, 2012, 06:36:41 PM
The user even likes to play the Satoshidice game.

Um maybe that was Pirate's great investment system.:)


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: proudhon on August 27, 2012, 06:41:37 PM
The user even likes to play the Satoshidice game.

Um maybe that was Pirate's great investment system.:)

i lold


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: wormbog on August 27, 2012, 06:46:56 PM
Taint analysis is the best analysis.

Taint that the truth!


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: 556j on August 27, 2012, 10:28:42 PM


Give it up that thread, is full of disinformation and useless speculation.




just par on the course


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: k9quaint on August 27, 2012, 11:32:26 PM
Taint analysis. Best Bitcoin process ever.  ;D


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: ElectricMucus on August 29, 2012, 12:46:40 PM
Are we seeing that dump anytime soon? Come on, we want cheap coins!


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: bitarrow on August 29, 2012, 12:48:38 PM
Are we seeing that dump anytime soon? Come on, we want cheap coins!
wonder if he repeats and waits till Friday


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Piper67 on August 29, 2012, 12:58:38 PM
Are we seeing that dump anytime soon? Come on, we want cheap coins!
wonder if he repeats and waits till Friday

Considering how well it worked out for him last weekend, I doubt he'd be so dumb as to try it again... but hey, the internets is full of dumb these days, it seems.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: niko on August 29, 2012, 01:04:02 PM
Are we seeing that dump anytime soon? Come on, we want cheap coins!
wonder if he repeats and waits till Friday

Considering how well it worked out for him last weekend, I doubt he'd be so dumb as to try it again... but hey, the internets is full of dumb these days, it seems.

I hope people will finally stop fantasizing about pirate wanting to crash the market. There's a "pirate crash" every few hours, look at the volume data. He's been selling.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Piper67 on August 29, 2012, 01:12:45 PM
Are we seeing that dump anytime soon? Come on, we want cheap coins!
wonder if he repeats and waits till Friday

Considering how well it worked out for him last weekend, I doubt he'd be so dumb as to try it again... but hey, the internets is full of dumb these days, it seems.

I hope people will finally stop fantasizing about pirate wanting to crash the market. There's a "pirate crash" every few hours, look at the volume data. He's been selling.

Yes, that makes a lot more sense than any attempt at manipulation.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: ElectricMucus on August 29, 2012, 01:17:34 PM
So now he suddenly is selling continuously? Get your facts straight anti-FUDders! (No he hasn't sold them all either)

Pirate ain't selling he is gonna run away with those coins, that's the only scenario that makes sense. When he needs dollars he gonna order cash on silkroad, it's as simple as that.
Bitcoins and their advatage over USD is far too valuable to pirate not to take advantage of it.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: niko on August 29, 2012, 01:22:59 PM
So now he suddenly is selling continuously? Get your facts straight anti-FUDders! (No he hasn't sold them all either)

Pirate ain't selling he is gonna run away with those coins, that's the only scenario that makes sense. When he needs dollars he gonna order cash on silkroad, it's as simple as that.
Bitcoins and their advatage over USD is far too valuable to pirate not to take advantage of it.
Either way we agree he's not "crashing the market", right? The title of this thread?


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: ElectricMucus on August 29, 2012, 01:35:14 PM
So now he suddenly is selling continuously? Get your facts straight anti-FUDders! (No he hasn't sold them all either)

Pirate ain't selling he is gonna run away with those coins, that's the only scenario that makes sense. When he needs dollars he gonna order cash on silkroad, it's as simple as that.
Bitcoins and their advatage over USD is far too valuable to pirate not to take advantage of it.
Either way we agree he's not "crashing the market", right? The title of this thread?

Yes of course we agree.

I'm just pointing out that countering irrational arguments with other irrational arguments is stupid. Occams Razor says that pirate if he makes a run for it will have an easier time to hold bitcoins so he will do it. It could be that pirate made some sales to stir up the markets in the past as a means to get attention, but at this point that just doesn't make sense any more.

I even think that the crash from 15 was a pure panic reaction without any pirate involvement.
People are just way too gullible...  :-\


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: paulie_w on August 29, 2012, 02:16:33 PM
if i were him and i wanted to fuck everyone i would just hold onto those coins for many years, slowly washing little bits here and there.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: proudhon on August 29, 2012, 02:17:29 PM
if i were him i would hold onto those coins for many years, slowly washing little bits here and there.

If I were him I'd give people their money back.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: bitcoinBull on August 29, 2012, 02:55:51 PM
if i were him i would hold onto those coins for many years, slowly washing little bits here and there.

If I were him I'd give people their money back.

a) why?

b) you wouldn't be able to. since the interest was (most likely) imaginary gains, the money he has is less than lenders' principal (totoal principal minus withdrawals).


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: proudhon on August 29, 2012, 04:36:34 PM
if i were him i would hold onto those coins for many years, slowly washing little bits here and there.

If I were him I'd give people their money back.

a) why?

Because it's the right thing to do.

Quote
b) you wouldn't be able to. since the interest was (most likely) imaginary gains, the money he has is less than lenders' principal (totoal principal minus withdrawals).

I understand that the imaginary gains couldn't be paid out, I'm saying the right thing to do is to return what he actually has.

Of course, if I really was him, I wouldn't have done this in the first place.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on August 29, 2012, 05:32:13 PM
Me have USD in exchanges.

Me want buy BTC.

Me want crash to single digits ASAP.

Getting tired of waiting for the mythical crash, if it doesn't happen by Tuesday, I don't think it's ever coming. Gonna put in a market order on Monday night and I think many others will do likewise.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: finkleshnorts on August 29, 2012, 05:34:48 PM
Me have USD in exchanges.

Me want buy BTC.

Me want crash to single digits ASAP.

Getting tired of waiting for the mythical crash, if it doesn't happen by Tuesday, I don't think it's ever coming. Gonna put in a market order on Monday night and I think many others will do likewise.

Smart move IMO.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Rygon on August 29, 2012, 07:40:26 PM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Killerpotleaf on August 29, 2012, 07:42:47 PM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.

IMO,
with or with out  BS&T coins its going down, at this point its only a matter of degree


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: finkleshnorts on August 29, 2012, 08:19:21 PM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.

IMO,
with or with out  BS&T coins its going down, at this point its only a matter of degree

Why?


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Killerpotleaf on August 29, 2012, 10:40:46 PM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.

IMO,
with or with out  BS&T coins its going down, at this point its only a matter of degree

Why?

because the other 9.5 million coins matter too.

everyone has a price, and they all want their money yesterday.


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: calian on August 30, 2012, 05:29:27 AM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.

IMO,
with or with out  BS&T coins its going down, at this point its only a matter of degree

You know, I was kind of thinking this too. But since you're saying it, now I'm starting to think the opposite.  :-\


Title: Re: Keep your eyes open for another pirate crash.
Post by: Rygon on August 30, 2012, 03:32:43 PM
Once people realize that the price isn't going to crash because those BS&T coins aren't going to materialize ever, it'll remove the imaginary downward pressure they'll start buying up at a steady pace again. I predict we'll be over $20 by the end of October because of that. Likelihood of a crash from this fiasco is pretty low, imo.

IMO,
with or with out  BS&T coins its going down, at this point its only a matter of degree

Why?

because the other 9.5 million coins matter too.

everyone has a price, and they all want their money yesterday.



Perhaps. IMO, the attitude on this forum is still very bullish for folks actually holding coins.The recent run up to $15 was based on speculation, and Pirate precipitated the crash that corrected it. Seems to me that there is pretty solid support around $10 right now. Pirate didn't "break" Bitcoin, so why should there be less confidence now than 6 months ago? I also suspect that upcoming drop to 25 BTC per block isn't properly factored into the market either. But that's just a gut feeling.