Bitcoin Forum

Hey folks,

Think pirate is a scam?

I am accepting Escrowed bets on Pirate's debt repayment by Sep 10, 2012.  Bets will be USD denominated and occur with Gox USD through trustworthy escrow.  Given that Pirate debt is trading between 10-20% right now I will accept reasonable odds, in the neighborhood of 1:3.5 (I would wager 100 against your 350).  Contact me if you are interested.

Edit: Odds Updated

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104221
Too late. :P

Given the turn of events (Pirate anouncing default),

I WILL STILL BE ACCEPTING ESCROWED BETS

but the odds will now be set just above TYGRRR debt


THINK PIRATE WILL NOT REPAY HIS DEBTS by September 10th?  Put your money where your mouth is.  Contact me.  ALL BETS MUST BE ESCROWED BY A TRUSTWORTHY MEMBER

For full repayment? You really have not thought this through

I love these 12 post new members popping up to take bets on already defaulted debt.   

OP, your bet is un-winnable.

Trendon has made it clear to me, that he plans to fuck me over and pay late/last and 'short'.......

Save yourself the headache and hassle.

The bet will be Full repayment up until the time of BS&T announced shutdown.  Thus interest after that point which pirate has already anounced default on will be ignored (this weeks interest).

The spirit of the bet is such that pirate will have the bitcoins to repay his debs (over 500k) not some technicality (shorting bitlane by 1 btc out of spite).  The timeframe will be 2 weeks.  The bets will be denominated in USD.  The odds will be by offer... I have received 4:1 so far.  All bets will be escrowed by a trusted forum member. 

Your a new member, why should anyone take this serious?  We have plenty of people to sidebet with.   You must be an old member making a new account or you would not know enough about this to really bet.

Seems legit...

I'm going to start a bet that he either repays partly before juli 15, 2013, or never fully at all. Who's in?

PS: that's when his debt will be more than the amount of bitcoin in circulation.

Pretty sure his "trusted escrow" will be another account of his. lame..

Isn't this already being done ?

You don't have to take me seriously, but I am using Gar (Operator of Cognitive, the largest GLBSE mining asset on the market) as an escrow for my first bet.  I will have him post a contract between the party's here.

I am not an old forum member, this is my only account.  Having a million posts doesn't make you any smarter.  I simply think I can win this bet.

A posting of odds and terms confirmed by escrow will follow.  The escrow is mutually agreed upon.

I am taking the other side of this bet and feel very safe using Garr as the escrow. c0in$ has been very nice to deal with and he gave me very nice odds considering how grim the chances of a full repayment look right now.

I have made a thread which will house all of my escrows: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0

I am just as confused about this bet as Matthews... what's the catch? on the surface it looks like free money... ?

If it is too good to be true...

I have another $500 I am willing to offer in this wager.

Given that the going market rate for pirate debt is 12%  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104052.0 I will only be accepting offers of 1:4 odds or better for the next bet slot.   Thus I would be willing to wager this next $500 against $2,000 or better.   Contact me with an offer if interested.

All bets will be escrowed here through Garr 255 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0  He has kindly offered to escrow my bets

I kindly invite any of you to make an offer,

c0in$

Could be a ploy to get people to sell coin but not actually put up the USD.

Goat approached me with 3:1 odds, I replied saying I would consider his offer against others I was getting as I have limited funds to place on this bet and I'd like to take the best offer.  I told Goat I would consider his offer and reply as to whether or not I would allocate my funds to a contract with him.

This is no ploy.  Simply a bet, feel free to read the bet contract already initiated. 

c0in$

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0

Link to Garr's escrow page with previous contract.  I will be accepting bets with odds of 2:7 or better at this time.  As the date of termination draws closer I will have to revise down my estimation of the probability of a repayment and adjust odds accordingly (odds the day before termination day of repayment would be slim to none).  I feel these odds are generous given how unlikely repayment is and that pirate debt is selling at less than 20% and usually much closer to 12%.  I will commit $500 towards a 2:7 bet.

The odds as stated in the OP are the current offer and you can accept it should you choose.  As the termination date of the bet draws nearer the odds must be adjusted as I don't have unlimited money to bet on unlikely events.

Odds Updated to 3.5:1. I will no longer accept bets if we get to within a week of deadline and still no signs of repayment.

Escrow information and terms can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0

Goat, again I am willing to offer you this bet.  Since there was some misunderstanding I will be willing to give you 2:7 odds.  I know you wish to bet against my maximum so I will offer $1000;$3500.  Let me know and I will try to work this out with you.  I am just looking to make honest bets at a fair market rate and think 3.5:1 odds is an appropriate and fair offer given how improbable this is and hardly anyone would want my side of the bet other than matthew but he might just be loony.

A USD denominated bet with such odds is quite an interesting hedge. If Pirate pays, the OP bets that the coins will lose value in USD because people will sell them. If Pirate doesn't pay, the OP thinks that the USD value will go up.

Possible scenario:

• OP buys 30 coins today for $330 ($11/BTC).
• OP bets $100 against JohnDoe (who bets $350 - 1:3.5 odds)
• If Pirate pays, OP receives $350 from the bet. Profits: $20 + 30 BTC (those BTC may be worth nothing in case of a panic sell move, but can sit in a wallet waiting for the USD/BTC to go up in case it does).
• If Pirate does not pay and BTC goes up to $14.5 (not necessarily immediately), OP loses $100 for the bet and later sells his 30 BTC for $435 or more. Profits: starting at $5.

The only case in this scenario in which OP will not benefit from this bet is if Pirate does not pay and the BTC/USD never goes as high as $14.5. So this is essentially a long position on BTC, hedged against a panic sell in the unlikely event that Pirate pays everyone and USD/BTC does not recover its initial value. One can see it as a $100 insurance against a massive USD/BTC drop.

What has changed?

Okay well as soon as garr gets online and sends you an address I will send him gox usd

Current status of bet: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9542654/btc/BTCST_bets/Goat%20v%20c0in%24.txt

Witnessed

Does "interest" count until the current date or until Pirate went ahead and said he froze the interest?

I take it this bet is no longer valid? I have $$ to put up if it is... same terms as Goat.

Just an update... c0in$ has paid me his wager. All bets are viewable here as always: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9542654/btc/BTCST_bets/index.html

As for future bets, you'll have to wait fro a response from c0in$

At least this was an escrowed bet and not a matt special....

Goat has won his bet. $4500 converted to BTC and sent upon his request.
Tx:
dde3fa904dfe09f6505cb69028095443a13d44cf7720592ca006862a50f6f915