Bitcoin Forum

See that peak on the left?  That's the old $1,000 all-time-high from 2014.  :D  
  
https://i.imgur.com/cSNy0x6.jpg (https://i.imgur.com/cSNy0x6.jpg)  
https://i.imgur.com/cSNy0x6.jpg  
  
It's gonna be fucking NUTS.  Can you even imagine the news coverage and how the Internet is going to blow up?  Y'all better be upgrading your servers *now*.

The image you posted already crashed. Too much hype. Shit is unreal. I'm buying more.

What is this??

Cripes. I'd better...

Do some more sitting around.

 
Yeah, not sure why images aren't loading properly tonight, but I added the url in case it happens again.

this thread definitely belongs in the 'what the f*ck' section. op has too much time or he is simply enjoying a space trip to planet weedy.

What the fuck is this shit

all hedge fund in bitcoin technologies wait for the 2016 halving ...

i prefer this :

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img912/765/wFvzR8.jpg

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img538/3670/8OZUFc.jpg

Absolutely Elwar, for some reason bitcoin stagnates for long periods of time and then is prone to these violent vertical moves whenever the conditions finally become too good to ignore.  Then it inevitably gets ahead of itself and crashes. 
 
Thing is that no one knows just how violent of a vertical move it is until it's over.  You can bet that as soon as we cross $2,000 the Internet will be filled with trolls moaning about this "unsustainable bubble" and how everyone needs to sell now.  The price will keep exploding upward though until it finally hits a peak and slowly reconciles down to a new floor. 
 
It would be nice to stabilize (even have stable growth)  but I don't think that will happen until we have reached the highest tiers of finance, which would be the governments buying in.  I think there is one more bubble left before that and then we stabilize as a world reserve currency.

'Historical' Bitcoin data has been comprehensively proven to be an utter irrelevance over the course of the last year or more. This is all completely uncharted territory and anyone going all in on the basis of past behaviour should think again.

It looks just like the past four patterns to me, with mild variations.  I predict 6-8 months of stagnation/slow rise and then fireworks before fall of 2016.

Assuming Bitcoin really repeats its fractal cycle, this would be incredible indeed. I'm also bullish for Bitcoin's long term success, but keep in mind that past performance (or any fractal-like behavior) is a guarantee for future performance! But what you are implying and describing here is basically the very foundation of why people invest in Bitcoin. If it does succeed, the return will be incredible.

My biggest concern is the blocksize. Indeed, thinking about upgrading servers it's a good idea, but what about updraging the blocksize limit? Once BTC goes again past 1K+, this time it will be all over the planet, media will go nuts, they'll no see it comming, we'll have a sea of noobs getting in and it will be indeed crazy. How will the blocksize of 1MB deal with that?

That's what's being hammered out right now. There are the 20mb block advocates and then you have ideas like the lightning network

http://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper-DRAFT-0.5.pdf

It would be better if something wasn't born out of immediate necessity, but lots of bright minds are beavering away right now.

In my honest opinion, the slow and steady then jumping increase from $2 to $260 felt more like the gradual build-up from $0.02 to $1.25 while the quick and sharp jump from $65 to over $1000 felt more like the $0.65 to over $30 portion of your charts. But that might be my bias of having watched them both happen.

I believe you should maybe think bigger than just $6-7k, Bitcoin's made fools of us for having rational estimations before. Think more like $65-80k by May of 2020 but at least another six months to a year of mostly sideways trading here in 2015 (but at a very gradual incline). Of course, all of this is assuming $180 or whatever in 2015 is the actual low, it might not be.

A good bit of how the price will eventually change in the coming years may also be dependent on revolutionary breakthroughs in mining and possibly new code, too. But if you're going to go fractal, I'd say check out the Gox charts going back to 2010 and plot them till at least December 2011. I believe it is possible we're in the early December 2011 timeframe, but if we haven't really hit a low, we might not be. The difficulty isn't falling hand-over-fist like it was in Fall 2011.

It's just not possible - at this point - to know whether Gox was inflating the price artificially or whether the price was "legitimate"! Maybe we'll know in a couple years, but from this point on it could really go either ways... The mining reward is still quite high and created some selling pressure. But the total market cap at even 21m BTC may be much much much higher, still. And we're already at 14m or so

the price was/is "legitimately inflated" ;)

BTW Karpeles had to "improvise" once the USG freezed his funds. But if you really want to blame someone, blame Agent Carl Mark Force IV. ;D

Yeah, but there's actually no real reason why we can't just push the blocksize up. It just artificially decreases the networks' scalability. It just doesn't make any sense to cap the block size at current levels in the mid-term to long-term, really! We need the theoretical availability of bigger blocks.

Well, people can chill out about the block size.  It will be upgraded soon.  
  
And I am sick of hearing about how Gox forged the price in 2013.  The price was the price: shut up already.  
  
At the next bubble you idiot trolls will be saying that it's only wild speculators 'faking' the price and driving it up...  It's not really that high.  
  
FACT: People were buying and selling bitcoin for that price.  
  
FACT: That pattern falls into the same fractal as the other bitcoin price movements.  
  
FACT: The peak of the next bubble will surprise almost everyone who will think it's *way* too high.  So if most people think the peak will be $8,000 you can expect the peak to be $20,000.  
  
FACT: Mastercard is a fucking idiot for hiring you trolls instead of using that money to figure out to profit from bitcoin.

I am a big fan of facts....


Especially fact 3

The Pegafractal Cryptograph Currency Conjecture is already changing the face of bitcoin speculation.   
 
Even now I see scientists all over the forums using these new breakthroughs to accurately model and predict imminent price movements. 
 
I am very proud.

Well, I agree with some of those claims, and disagree with others. Yes, people traded coins at those prices, BUT: Willy effectively eliminated the supply of new coins. He accounted for (IIRC) 10% of the total volume on Gox at that time only buying coins. 10% doesn't sound like much, but it actually is incredibly much if it's only buying coins and never selling them again. That would mean the true influx of new buying power afterwards reverted to (almost) the levels before Willy was active (minus new people in the game). Bottom line: Yes, it wasn't only Willy, and new people really joined the game due to the high spike in price, but it wasn't only natural growth.

No one knows yet, but the likelihood is that Willy was buying coins that didn't exist with USD that didn't exist. I'm sure coins and money were dribbling out in limited quantities but that 10% extra volume was possibly entirely fictional.

I don't know... Doesn't the Willy Report state that Willy was buying those coins (which may or may not be real) with fictional USD? I believe he bought the coins with false USD, and thus drove the price up (also the surrounding trading, of course). If they really were malevolent, Gox could then theoretically have sold those coins, after turning Willy off, at a high premium, and thus recouped potential FIAT losses, while speculating they wouldn't run out of BTC.

That ignores the fact that China was the initial exchange in most major price movements. And MtGox de-coupled from all of the other exchanges when it came to price. Everyone knew that it was not real. People were even paying 10:1 for "MtGox coins" toward the end. They tended to be 10-30% higher price than all of the other exchanges.

Look that: https://nxtforum.org/news-and-announcements/(ann)-jinn/msg106247/#msg106247

Indeed, bubbles always are a big surprise, and they get higher than logically imagined previously. Similarly, people thought you were insane, and ready to enter a mental asylum if you claimed Bitcoin would reach 100 dollars EVER, we all know that happened, so add at least a zero after whatever prediction you are doing as future ATHs.

Lol you're welcome btw.   :D

The self-similarity is pretty impressive:
https://i.imgur.com/eyt1XnJ.png

I'm not sure why people keep thinking bitcoin behavior can be adequately modeled by anything remotely linear...I guess I've just studied too much math? I'm not even a professional mathematician . . . Damped sinusoidal function with exponential amplitude and geometric period co-efficient sub functions does an alright job. But I'm just looking at this intuitively, I haven't actually calculated anything.

Calling it fractal and showing these graphs is the best I've seen someone do so far (not that I've looked too hard). Although they should probably be scaled logarithmically for better predictive power, this gets the pattern across fairly well.

https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da

is the cicle over?

americanpegasus, the legend. We want more thought on bitcoin and monero!

Wow... This topic hasn't been edited since 2015. So you predicted a peak and you predicted that it will happen in 2017. That is amazing. If the rise is anything like the last time, it won't be long before we hit 5 digits.

PEGASuSSS! welcome back

I never left.  My attention has just been elsewhere.  But yes, it's good to recognize old faces. 😊


I have become aware of something incredibly profound happening in the market space for crypto.  It's so remarkable that I'm not even sure those working on it understand all the ramifications.  Ultimately it may do for exchanges what bitcoin did for money itself... Imagine an open source program that automatically market makes an asset and returns money to you.  Imagine this code given away for free, out in the open, and encouraged for everyone to use.  This is coming soon.  Bitcoin allowed everyone to have the power of the mint.  Well soon the power of Wall Street hedge funds will be in the hands of all market participants as well. 
 
But in the meantime....  Woooo! 
 
https://i.imgur.com/RWSa9Vg.jpg

Very interested in your new projects. Good to see you around these parts again

This account is now back under the control of the real^tm americanpegasus.  Someone ethical handed over the password back to me, thankfully.  I am sorry for any nonsense that has been happening while the account was in other hands.
 
Now let's get back to eerily accurate predictions about the future. 
 
#fuckicos #fuckethereum #fuckscammysigcampaigns #ugh

Great to see you back.


Haha. Can this be the name of the next Big Bang Theory episode?  :D

Noticed two similar contracting triangles that imply we are near a top since triangles typically appear in 4th wave Elliott Wave position.
See chart at tradingview:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZBCmUy16-Similar-Triangles-Implies-Rally-to-12500/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZBCmUy16-Similar-Triangles-Implies-Rally-to-12500/)