Bitcoin Forum

I feel like i read this somewhere long ago. What is the predicted life expectancy of bitcoin fully running its course, sans a network takeover?

http://bringingforthworldequality.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/infinity.jpg

??? Not sure what you are asking.

42

~5000 years

Major civilizations can last about that long from historic records.

No it's not infiniti, there was a predicted and calculated EOL.

Are you are talking about the mining rewards?

The infinity sign was a nice way of saying your wrong.  There is no "predicted and calculated EOL".  Bitcoin may fail tomorrow or still be around in 20,000 years but there is no termination date built into the protocol.

TL/DR:
Yes.

Approx. 2 years left.

I believe it had been calculated because of the deflationary component limit of 8 decimals...
maybe it was a subjective assumption?

The number of decimal places is arbitrary it can be expended to 12 or 20,000 if necessary.

Bitcoins wear out in approximately 5-1/2 years, then they have to be reminted.

ok so maybe it was calculated by lost coins? or is expansion handled by the decimals?

bitcoin is getting more, not less. hence not deflationary. second, from time to time coins are lost ... some day in the future the supply of new coins will be less than the loss of older coins.
but

• this does never end at zero
• the 8 decimals are just how it is implemented right now. adding another 8, 16 or 24 digits after the comma is no fundamental issue, just a matter of proper upgrading all clients.

I believe there will be a successor to bitcoin that is better in almost all regards within 5 years from now. The question is: will it be adopted because of high barriers of market entry for this new competitor given bitcoin's higher adoption level? And will it be convertible into bitcoins?

So basically 5-10 years more or a very long time into the future (100 years?)

As long as Internet / mesh networks / etc. exist.

thank you all for the replies - i've got somewhat of an idea. I'll write off whatever I read (and can't seem to find again) as speculative, and I have gained yet another inkling of understanding.  :)

Bitcoins will not last for infinity. Only thing that is finite by design is the storage space available for blockchain. In physics and cosmology it is known that no civilization can acquire infinite amount of data.

But even this might not be a problem in far future. The biggest threat to Bitcoins are noobs and government. Geniuses create things, noobs screw them up in any imaginable or unimaginable way and then government steps in and put regulations on it. And this might happen long before all matter in asteroid belt is transformed to solid state drives.

Bitcoin will survive until the Singularity... unless the AI decides to continue using it as its currency (and why not?!) ;)  Ohhhhh or maybe the AI itself actually created Bitcoin as the first phase in the Singularity.  :o

As long as humans exist on this planet, that know how it works and use it

all hail to the upcoming cybernetic omnipresent AI. spoiler: money will no longer be necessary ... we just obey or drones bomb us.

Bitcoins will last as long as we do.  When we die the executors of our estates will have no idea what bitocins are let along what to do with them.  Bitcoins die with their owners.

I believe that Satoshi's bitcoins suffered this fate.  Satoshi met an untimely demise and his mom just donated his computers with all his encrypted wallet.dat files to charity.

Thanks, that reminds me I need to fill my wife in on what the hell that USB drive is doing in our safe and how to get/use the bitcoins contained therein should I get hit by a bus.

6-8 year safely and who knows from that point.   

When SHA256 is cracked open like a redheaded kid stealing magical breakfast meats and getting a 1970s asswhooping for it.

5 years 3 months 7 days and 3.14 seconds.

Give or take a few days...

The important number for me is when, if ever, Bitcoin will become something I don't wish to support due to it's impact on the various societies around the world...as is the case today for the USD for instance.  I suspect that that could happen within the period of time when I will be needing to be actively shifting my assets around.  That is to say, within roughly the next quarter century or so.  Of course if a weakness in the system rears it's head than that day could come sooner.

If this time comes it wont be a problem like the y2k bug. They didnt think the computer systems would be running for so long...
But more like ipv6?

Ooops my misstake...Calculating, only one more month! But I will be very nice and buy all your coins for $0.0001.

42 years, +- 50 billion years

<2 years.
already there are alternatives popping up that solve issues that bitcoin has, imho it's inevetable that the community will jump on that and drop bitcoin

This is why it's better done now than later. We only have 3 decimal places remaining until we must switch to 128 bits.

However, I assume it can still be done with a hard (as in, very hard) fork:

1. Agree on Bitcoin termination date, and calculate corresponding block height
2. Release clients that conform with new rules once past the termination date
3. After termination date, clients will use the block as a genesis block and begin a new protocol

Perhaps you neglected to consider that the singularity will bring....  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere)

You forgot to mention that every alternative that has popped up has fallen flat on it's face. This doesn't mean an alternative won't come out which succeeds, but let's not downplay the challenge presented by the current champion, Bitcoin.

Eventually every single BTC will be lost forever as people lose their wallets through various means or their drives get confiscated by the FBI under kiddie-porn suspicions. 

What do you consider "life"?

I do believe that, given that technological civilisation does not collapse, eventually a large part of the economy will be using distributed cryptocurrency systems. A currency system based on math and fixed rules instead of vague human promises or transfer of physical materials is simply a matter of technological progress.

Bitcoin will always be heralded as the first one that was used outside of academic circles. I also think that Bitcoin will have some role as "hub" in the trade between various cryptocurrencies, at least in the beginning. It won't disappear from one moment to another because there is a better successor. That's not how things work.

It may eventually be regarded as old-fashioned or impractical, or even nostalgic. Just as we're not using cars from 1900 but we're still using cars.

I doubt that even a distinctly 'better' system would take over unless Bitcoin itself became thoroughly corrupted and useless though the latter could happen if the idea of crypto-currencies really caught on but the distribution of wealth in Bitcoin-land was such that very few people could obtain and use them.  After all, other crypto-currencies would (or could) have the same major strength insofar as they are kept solid via cryptography so the main thing differentiating Bitcoin from a fork is that users are fickle and this impacts value.  The core team's skill and disposition will probably be the biggest factor in determining if the corruption thing happens.  My current sense is that at this point Bitcoin has the mindshare and distribution to retain command of significant value in most circumstances.  If anything I would expect Bitcoin to 'back' other crypto-currencies as something of a reserve currency.

I'm actually kinda hoping for a world where different organizations issue their own crypto-currencies backed at least in part by user-support for various things which the organization 'stands for'.  So, for instance, I choose to use a currency issued by my local community because I like the community and wish to support it, and because a good deal of my spending is done locally.  I might also use 'EFF' currency because I like the work they do.  If I want something which someone is selling in a currency I don't normally use, I'll go to an exchange.  But this is all something of a dream-world to me and I don't really think it'll go down that way.

There are fairly hard physical limits on storing the blockchain, and on the energy required to hash.  But practical considerations (like asteroid impact or thermonuclear war) would likely intervene long before they are reached.

As long as the internet exists bitcoin will exist. You cannot shutdown P2P protocol, you can only corrupt it, as long as bitcoin keeps evolving we shouldn't be afraid how long it would last.

bitcoin is designed for longterm use.

it is far and away the most powerful computing effort yet

I, for one, welcome our new cybernetic overlords

The singularity will never happen in my opinion. Average IQ of population decreases as capitalism and interracial breeding takes place. The technology also loses quality, computers in particular not so well built like they were 15 years ago. Computers becomes more powerful in terms of computing and raw throughput, but the general population even struggles with copy-paste operations and renaming of files.

The noobs will damage Dyson sphere when drunk and majority of the energy from it will be diverted to power some unnecessary eye candy like Vista Aero instead of powering real computing.

But I dont see any real obstacles why Bitcoin system can not last for my lifetime and lifetime of my kids. It will last as long as internet and binary computers exist.

The IQ of a population has decreased, obviously.
 :-*

excuse me?

MM is an inveterate troll...that's why I like him/her.

Of course hybridization tends to provoke the expression of positive characteristics, among them general intelligence.  Inbreeding is the opposite...it tends to produce racist scum who's populations are not self sustaining.

win++;

lol, i like that anser  ;D

...that would explain the shortage of anti-capitalist skinheads on most campuses - too busy mining litecoins in their mom's basement.