Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2015 Low; History Suggests Sizeable Moves Ahead

As of May 21, bitcoin price volatility touched its lowest level since the start of 2015. If historical trends surrounding periods of low volatility are reliable indicators, bitcoin markets may be poised for notably larger price moves in the coming weeks.

https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-volatility-hits-2015-low-history-suggest-sizeable-moves-ahead

Wyckoffian logic says that this area of low volume/low volatility in the trading range is when most of the stock is now in strong hands. Everyone who wanted out is out, the punters are all waiting for a breakout, and a few interests are building up positions, further tiring out any weak hands who have stubbornly held on.

When volatility is low and were near a 70% price drop from when we were at our last historical high
It's argueable and has been for a while that we are at the bottom and are due for an uptrend the question is what the trigger will be for the next massive rise or how long we will be in a sideways low volume trend.

If you look at the charts, volatility was actually lower in July 14 and Nov 14.
The price went on a steady downtrend at those points.

I'd rather have a stable non-volatile price, than these Willy Bot spikes.  :o

Things just gets crazy, when the price goes on a sugar rush and the speculators enter the scene for quick profits.

A steady increase in small increments will satisfy the merchants and possible NEW adopters... Not this hyped up spikes and terrible drops in the price.  :(

Do you want Bitcoin to stay at $240 forever? Ideally, against a fiat currency which is not protected against inflation, the exchange rate of Bitcoin should go up (since it is protected against inflation), whether uniformily or abruptly. For my part, I definitely don't want a "stable" price at $240.

Honestly, the only move upwards thats gonna happen from here on out will be true mass adoption or the implosion of world dominant fiat currencies.
Some gigantic speculative bubble is just out of the question at this point, the only way that would happen is if bitcoin ends up being traded in the big leagues along w/ stocks n other assets on like NASDAQ and investors w/ gigantic bankrolls start speculating on bitcoins price. They would most likely seek to just pump n dump it though.
I guess there is another way, given the utility of the blockchain itself as realized by NASDAQ to use as a trading platform. If NASDAQ does indeed start doing a majority of their trades using the blockchain & colored coins, they will need to guarantee the security of the blockchain.
The only way to do that is to make sure miners have plenty of incentive to keep mining. Meaning, NASDAQ would start pumping up the price of BTC as needed.

I dont seen any other exchange pulling off a willy bot / mtgox 2.0 but.... I guess that could happen if u get enough people in one major country excited enough that didnt really care about bitcoin previously.

Even w/ the public trading bitcoin has now, its been nothing major. GBTC hasnt changed bitcoin's price in any fucking way. I dont see why any other public traded offer would perform differently.

I firmly believe from here on out its the long / slow road to consumer / merchant level adoption.

Price moves in monetary goods are like tectonic plates sliding under one another ... stick, slip-bang! with earthquakes. People will get comfortable using ~$2, $12, $100, $250 as the price for denominating goods in btc .... then when it starts to move nobody knows what it is worth so bang! up it goes until it settles out at new equilibrium level. Stick, slip-bang! upward moves are here for foreseeable future as long as bitcoin is still gaining adoption.

Mostly nothing to do with willy-bot btw, maybe an extra 5% at most.