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Title: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Dansker on September 09, 2012, 10:44:13 AM As the subject reads: What do you base your speculations and prediction on the Bitcoin prize on?
Is it a hunch? News? current scandals? Maths and statistics? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: labestiol on September 09, 2012, 10:54:04 AM My secret method : Bitcoin is awesome -> price will go up.
Know what ? It works ;D Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Dansker on September 09, 2012, 11:18:12 AM My secret method : Bitcoin is awesome -> price will go up. Know what ? It works ;D You wouldn't make a very good day trader I think :) Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: labestiol on September 09, 2012, 11:29:13 AM My secret method : Bitcoin is awesome -> price will go up. Know what ? It works ;D You wouldn't make a very good day trader I think :) I agree. I've never been convinced by the risk/rewards of daytrading anyway. Especially daytrading bitcoin. Just too small of a market, too unpredictable imo. Would be really curious to see the books of people doing it (for at least months). Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Vandroiy on September 09, 2012, 12:34:00 PM First and foremost, maths and statistics. But the interesting question is what to apply them on.
I believe it's best to first apply them to myself: figure out how good my own predictions are, and make sure I'm ready to face my own mistakes. No point in getting cornered for maximum short-term profit. For the actual predictions, I use a combination of simplified models, psychological ideas, and historic comparisons, all fed by whatever indicators I can get a hold of: news, forum stats, various forms of trading volume, ... The difficult part for me is calibrating a model after I have some rough idea. What's the scale, growth, sentiment of Bitcoin? And I have to cope with horribly foggy indicators. I'm not really versed in history, so I have to look for past events that hold similarities. This can be within Bitcoin for short-term things, or old stuff like the DJIA around 1930 to understand what happened in the big 2011 Bitcoin bubble. Don't take this too seriously, I'm still a noob. I'm not even done "calibrating" myself, don't know how many mistakes I do on average. So this post could be one. :P Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Realpra on September 09, 2012, 01:35:49 PM Daytrading is just gambling imo.
I'm long Bitcoin because logically it makes sense to me as a monetary system in a world with a very broken monetary system. Short term people can be irrational, but over 10-20 years logic always wins. Consumerism, inflating fiat and bailouts never made any sense. Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: knight22 on September 09, 2012, 03:53:24 PM I'm basing on humans behaviors confronted to different scales of events.
Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: kentrolla on September 09, 2012, 08:14:17 PM my crystal ball helps a lot
Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: adamstgBit on September 09, 2012, 08:34:03 PM i take in all the News, current scandals, BS Maths and statistics some poeple post here. and formulate a hunch!
oh and my hunch is that 10$ is the new 5 my fear is the 15 is the new 32 :P My fears are slowly going away Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: ElectricMucus on September 09, 2012, 09:11:08 PM i take in all the News, current scandals, BS Maths and statistics some poeple post here. and formulate a hunch! oh and my hunch is that 10$ is the new 5 my fear is the 15 is the new 32 :P My fears are slowly going away They can both be true... Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: beckspace on September 10, 2012, 01:01:56 AM Humans...
11.11 is the new 6.66 Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: ElectricMucus on September 10, 2012, 01:55:21 AM Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process. I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that :) Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: adamstgBit on September 10, 2012, 02:04:44 AM i take in all the News, current scandals, BS Maths and statistics some poeple post here. and formulate a hunch! oh and my hunch is that 10$ is the new 5 my fear is the 15 is the new 32 :P My fears are slowly going away They can both be true... after a few million coins have changed hands at around 10$ i think its safe to assume 10 is the new 5 so far so good. Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: ElectricMucus on September 10, 2012, 02:24:11 AM Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process. I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that :) Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything. Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point ;) Have you tried modeling it after a gamma distribution? Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: tiberiandusk on September 10, 2012, 02:25:59 AM Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: julz on September 10, 2012, 06:17:51 AM I base mine on gut feeling about bitcoin news and scandals.
This has been unsuccessful for me. I only trade with pretty small amounts, and I made about 2 bitcoins last month doing the occasional day trade - but it wasn't worth the time and stress. Now I'm holding some USD when I'd prefer to be all BTC. If the price doesn't drop soon then I guess I'll buy back in at a loss and wipe out my previous little BTC gains plus some. :/ Basically - I suck at day trading, but every now and then I forget that and get sucked in to giving it another whirl. Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: tvbcof on September 10, 2012, 06:38:42 AM I base my speculation almost completely on my own theory of the value of such a solution (I think.)
Associated factors include - the likelihood of failure or supplantation of the solution. - the possible reactions (namely corp/gov) to the solution. - the potential trajectories of Bitcoin which could provoke failure or success. - the potential trajectories of fiat currency solutions which could provoke failure or success. Like most of my speculative adventures, I'm not anticipating success for years (if at all) so I don't pay much attention to the routine things which pop up (e.g., thefts, scams, tv shows, etc.) At least not for the purpose of modulating the magnitude of my speculative investment. Some of them do lend (or reduce) strength the the various hypothesis I hold about factors effecting the chances of a particular outcome. And a lot of these routine things are fairly amusing. --- A completely unrelated factor in my interest in Bitcoin is political. It is a good way to actively demonstrate my rejection of the USD, for instance. Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: labestiol on September 10, 2012, 07:16:52 AM Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process. I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that :) Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything. Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point ;) Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity? Specifically, I back test over the last 400 constant volume candles, right now that means that each candle is for price activity over a span of about 14k BTC of volume. The data used for backtesting goes back about 100 days, I don't actually find it useful to go back any farther. As someone who build models for a living (system biology), I like what you're talking about. Still, my question is : Does it work ? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: labestiol on September 10, 2012, 08:32:16 AM Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process. I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that :) Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything. Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point ;) Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity? Specifically, I back test over the last 400 constant volume candles, right now that means that each candle is for price activity over a span of about 14k BTC of volume. The data used for backtesting goes back about 100 days, I don't actually find it useful to go back any farther. As someone who build models for a living (system biology), I like what you're talking about. Still, my question is : Does it work ? It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month. Do you think your time period is significant enough ? I really need to take some time off to play with that ;D Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: bitcoinBull on September 10, 2012, 05:56:59 PM It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month. What time range for holding periods does your model calculate? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: bitcoinBull on September 10, 2012, 06:13:06 PM It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month. What time range for holding periods does your model calculate? I'm not quite sure what you are asking. In order to follow the model I would be resetting orders with each candle. As a new candle comes in the curves are recalculated and converged, risk levels are optimized and a new set of orders are placed. I have found it to be fruitless to issue any kind of public report from the model because the output doesn't really mean anything unless you are trading the model rigorously. There is no set 'holding period'. Candles come in according to how fast the market is trading according to volume. Right now I am using candles of a constant amount of volume, about 14k BTC. Ah, well that leads to my follow-up question: do you use market orders or limit orders? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Dansker on September 10, 2012, 06:19:33 PM I was thinking that press coverage, social media buzz and google search statistics would feature prominently with all of you as sources.
Is this not so? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: labestiol on September 10, 2012, 06:35:20 PM Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: phelix on September 11, 2012, 07:46:40 PM Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ? I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best. The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is. very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Chalkbot on September 12, 2012, 02:54:21 AM It's obviously driven primarily by the price of a shave and a haircut:
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b241/Chalkbot/shave.png Two bit(coin)s! Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: lebing on September 12, 2012, 03:44:51 AM This thread delivers ;D
Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: evolve on September 12, 2012, 04:03:17 AM Trending.
First off, I wont jump in if the market is too flat. You can make money off the minor swings in a flat market, but you risk getting caught with your pants down because it could trend in either direction quickly. This may mean staying out of the market for a couple weeks until a trend forms. When the price starts trending upward heavily, I find a comfortable entry point as close to the bottom of the trends trading range as possible. This takes a lot of chart watching, and a little bit of luck. I define my exit points right away. I plan the top price I want to sell at (generally a little above the current trade range) and my low price to minimize losses in case of a crash (generally 25% of my total unrealized gains). If I'm not confident in the market, I stay out, and most importantly, I don't trade on emotion. I stick to my strategy. Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: genuise on September 12, 2012, 10:41:34 AM Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ? I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best. The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is. very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart? Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com (http://bitcoin-analytics.com) charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about? Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: Endgame on September 12, 2012, 01:14:46 PM http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20070102125822/lotr/images/b/b0/Palant%C3%ADr.jpg
My palantir never lies Title: Re: What do you base your speculation on? Post by: genuise on September 12, 2012, 09:38:51 PM Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ? I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best. The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is. very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart? Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com (http://bitcoin-analytics.com) charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about? Not really, no. None of that gives you a probability distribution for price, and provides no real guidance for how to set your personal risk levels. I know how much to risk because I solve for it, continually. As new data comes in the curves change and there is a whole new solution set to search through, it is adaptable to the market and my own personal market positions. This gives me a personal perspective of the market that nobody else has and that is what provides an edge. As long as everyone looks at the same charts that information gets priced into the market quickly and can make it difficult to pull in profits. Few have managed to train themselves to recognize useful patterns in real time, but this is getting harder to do, even for the best of them, because of the algos that do the same thing. Ultimately, it's going to be a war with the machines. I can understand that what you are talking is far from what felix was asking. I believe his question was not about probablities but about charts calculated for fixed volumes, that is why I asked my question. |
