Bitcoin Forum

Hello all,

I've recently somehow active in the speculation sub-forum here and I see many bull and extreme bulls if I can say so, and I consider myself one of them.

Nearly everyday we see bullish news about bitcoin, and all these news tanks our rocket-ship.

Lets say that we are normal/decent Joe and not too expert when it comes to Economics, this is me myself at least.

But what about the big players and the super experts like people in Xapo for example and Gemini owners, would this people throw easily their time and money into something that will not have a bright future ?

Yes, there are still a lot of barriers to bypass as well as technical issues and such.

But the question now is, could we really go wrong/bad after all these efforts and economic organizations entering the game ?

Thank you.

I'm afraid we could. It becomes less likely each day, however this is a social experiment and we are not even at version 1.0 of the software. A crazy exploit could be discovered, net neutrality could go away and leave us to only use our computer as our ISP's deem fit, or perhaps people just wont see the value in it. I doubt that these things will happen, but never say never.

yes, because we are still in early development stage and bitcoin is consider now as experimental.

there are so many factors...from some deadly bug to some government limitations and chasing people using bitcoin. I don't even want to imagine what all can happen and how fragile all this is..

Thanks for your reply.

What you said makes sense but I guess it's only a matter of time until we start reaching the real value of bitcoin.

I guess mass adoption sooner or later will come.

People are in deep love with easy things, to be in context, easy way of paying.

Bitcoin offer easiness in terms of paying someone and buying virtual/real item, what really is a pain in the a** is getting bitcoin as easy as sending it, it needs to be eased more than the hassle, me myself, face.

Thank you for your reply.

Why would governments ban bitcoin and chase us for using it ? For what reason ? Because they are, in some manner or another, making good usage from fiat for example ?

my opinion? because they can't simply control it...and usually what gov. can't control is regulated. and what can't be regulated for any reason will simply become illegal..

Good opinion.

I tried to think about bypassing this, but I failed, by-passable, right ? But how ?

The future of the technological achievements that Bitcoin has unearthed is assured. It's too useful and infinitely mouldable. The future of what many people on here are balls deep in right now is considerably more fragile.

'Too big to fail' is an inadvisable phrase to use in this context. It's still tiny and easily abandoned. Like anything, it can be the most superbest thing ever but if people simply do not want it then none of that matters or consensus might splinter or many other scenarios.

VC funding is considerable but it's less than nothing compared to the first dotcom bubble when huge amounts of money were poured in only to be set on fire.

We assume if millions are going in then they all know what they're doing. When you look into what was invested in at the turn of the century, the average three year old would've been able to point out that it was usually a terrible idea.

Perhaps it will follow a very similar trajectory to that and overall internet development. This is still super early days and almost everything from back then is unrecognisable in comparison to what we use today.

Bitcoin still has a chance of continuing to be the backbone of what's coming but it's still all to play for.

The Myspace/ Facebook comparison will almost certainly come up from someone. I think that comparison is a pathetic one. People just skip from one to t'other with a couple of clicks. The only danger might be losing touch with a few people.

When real money is involved the incentive to improve what you already have is an extremely powerful one. Bitcoin has also been at the forefront of every shit storm and every possible angle of attack and it's still ticking away. That type of track record is absolutely vital and it cannot be bought, replicated or transferred.

There may be governments that will be threatened by BTC in the future and they may want to control or destroy bitcoin. However no one has shown me how they could do it. That is the power of open-source distributed computing. There is no point to attack. My computer could be attacked and taken offline, but there are tens of thousands of such computers across the world. Going after them would cost many millions of dollars and would likely have a tiny effect. It's just not logical for governments to act in this way.

All they gotta do is strangle the on and off ramps for fiat. That could be implemented tomorrow with very little expense.

There will always be a hard core of users and loops will gradually close, but it will always need to interact with fiat in some way for many.

It wouldn't be end of it, but it would suddenly become a lot less useful to the majority.

Thank you for your reply.

Let me ask you please, a different question, what do you think about the future of bitcoin in general ?

I see you are neutral all the line, but I want to hear from you, your own thoughts.

I agree. Some would still use it in a country that bans all sales of bitcoin, but it would hurt. Just as it has hurt the sale of marijuana. It did not stop people from smoking it, but made it harder.  To hurt bitcoin globally would require the cooperation of many nations working together on this. They would also have to have a legal justification. Here in the U.S. that would be very hard. Perhaps in dictatorships the ruler would just decide? I see no legal justification in our laws. (not that I'm a lawyer)

Why it would be difficult in the U.S. to ban Bitcoin ?

Bitcoin itself as a currency/ investment? I really dunno any more. The more I learn about it, the more unknowable and incredible the future seems to be.

However I try to frame it, I just can't see it making much sense as a currency in itself for anyone in a first world country at this moment in time.

For commerce it's superb for merchants, but offers active discouragement for buyers. The idea of having to buy something so you can buy something does not add up.

Margins are so thin for most markets that they couldn't sustain enough discount to make it worth the average person's time and added risk. That risk might be them making a balls up when transferring, the exchange rate plunging or the merchant being a prick and getting refunded being harder.

At the same time I sent a friend in Albania the equivalent of 5$ when they were on holiday in Budapest a few weeks back and a few minutes later they bought themselves a coffee. There's nothing else on Earth that can pull that off.

Value transfer and parking value is another matter. Digital gold is a phrase that's thrown around often and it makes the most sense to me as a successful usage scenario. That would probably be the most acceptable result to twitchy governments too.

However, if that is how it happened then as it would be so desirable and easily moved and spent, the case for it being a currency starts to rise again.

I think there's still a large amount that needs refining to truly go places. The present technical doubts need to be put to bed. Consensus needs to be solidified. Regulator attitudes need to be established and clarified whether we like it or not. Usability needs to be as foolproof as possible.

If all that can be addressed then the future is potentially very bright. It'll no doubt throw out innovations that are the type we haven't even imagined, yet we'll look back and wonder how we lived without them.

gentlemand, +1. One of the best posts I've seen on this forum, at least since I've registered. Too often people are either too optimistic for little reason, or extremely pessimistic, also for little reason. Your post is quite objective, acknowledging the possibilities, but also acknowledging the risks and difficulties involved.

As bitcoin currently is, very few people will use it, not just in the first world. Those from less developed countries will not risk the little money they have in something they don't understand, but fluctuates wildly. Those from even less developed countries won't even have the knowledge of what bitcoin is.

At the same time, as Andreas said, bitcoin price itself is not an indicator of the health of the sector. There are too many other forces like speculators and traders involved. There's lots of price manipulation and such. Bitcoin's infrastructure and such are not weaker than a year ago; they are a lot stronger. Yet the price has declined so much. This is why he advises against "investing" in bitcoin.

However, many people who are not politically motivated, but simply see the many uses this technology brings are very optimistic about this. Fred Wilson says that he doesn't think bitcoin will go away. I think that is the biggest vote of confidence we can get.

I am optimistic. I feel that bitcoin will succeed, and in time it really reaches the masses, and has actual use cases, not just enthusiasts trying to support the economy. It may not be primarily used as a currency, and USD/Euro/yuan/yen definitely won't be going away any time soon. However, if there are enough use cases for bitcoin, and enough people come on board, I think it'll be very hard for manipulators to keep its value down. I hope and believe that bitcoin's price will eventually go up, much higher than it is today, and much higher than most would expect.

Fixed that for you... Look at the charts and see a ship that's sinking... there is no 'big recovery' or 'tothemoon'.

If that's the case being optimistic, then why you are against "investing" in bitcoin then ?

Am I mistaken for investing in bitcoin ?

Are you optimistic for Bitcoin as investment ?

I will ask you the same question which I've asked above, am I mistaken for investing in Bitcoin ?

Not a soul on Earth one can tell you whether you'll be right or wrong. That's the beauty and scariness of the whole thing.

I have coins. I use them as much as possible. I think there's a good chance they'll be worth more in the future, maybe a ludicrous amount more. It could also easily die from indifference or technical failure. I can live with both scenarios. I'm not convinced there'll be much of a middle ground.

What I didn't do is bet the house on another 2013 style rise a couple of months down the line. That would obviously be pretty sweet but the world doesn't work that way. There were plenty of people talking about taking loans out right on the cusp of the price starting its lengthy descent.

Buyers were treating it like a dead cert back then. What has unfolded since should be a lesson in just how insanely risky this truly still is and how warped the market is.

I think it'll take many years to fulfill its potential. It's a hard/suicidal sell to someone looking in from the outside right now. When doubts have been largely assuaged and there's something approaching proper deflation, that's when things might become surreal.

5-10 years is the time frame I went into it with. It'll either be on its way to real success or terminal decline. By 2021 annual coin inflation will fall to 1.8% and by then infrastructure will make today look quaint. I think that's when we'll start to really know.

You'll either be kicking yourself or ecstatic like everyone else who is here watching it unfold.

I think it's a fine time to make a bet on this whole thing. The road to the future is being built in ways that would've been labelled flat out delusional had you suggested it on here in 2011/12. It's top down deal, though. The people won't come until the path has been laid for them. That it's actually taking place right now is vastly more important and reassuring than any short term price movements.

Bitcoin has been operating longer than Instagram, Pinterest, Vine, and WhatsApp.

Nagle's turning bullish.

Bullish? All those companies exploded in valuation and use in less time... Ask the general public about Bitcoin? "Oh I heard about that..."

That said, Bitcoin is uncharted waters, with a nearly impossible goal, thus carrying a much steeper risk/reward profile than an emerging messaging/posting host.

you are comparing widely known smartphone applications with something, which is known (here) only for silk road.. :P

Regarding people, do you know that Bitcoin is still new ?

Sooner or later people will hear about it, just give it some time and watch ;)

Bitcoin isn't new, everybody in the 'west' and beyond has heard about it.
I don't even dare to talk about bitcoin anymore, it used to be interesting to people, but now they just laugh about it and make me look like a fool for even defending the concept (which i still do!).

Banning it would require a legal rational. I don't see one. Early in the project there was some concern that bitcoin could be treated like a physical metal coin. Since then it has been legally defined and is now an asset subject to capitol gains. It would be very hard to walk that back in the face of hundreds of millions of dollars in venture capitol.

Na, I've been here since 2010 and it has never looked so good. I live off them now. For me the battle is over.

What battle is over and how ?

What I mean is that bitcoin would be very very hard to stop anymore. It has huge capitol investment, it is used worldwide at many tens of thousands of outlets, it has a pipeline of projects that keeps coming, a loyal following of millions and growing. I just don't think bitcoin needs our help anymore. The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going away, IMO. 

Would like to hear from you about your speculation for the price in the coming 5-10 years.

I do not believe any person, including me, can know the future. That's my starting point. But I am encouraged by the indicators I look at. Those are:
User and merchant adoption - is is spreading among users and are there more places to spend bitcoin.
Investment - Are there new projects starting and capitol investment flowing in.
Utility - Is it still the cheapest, fastest, and most secure way to send money.
Viability - has it been broken or hacked in some way.


As long as those things are true then I expect it to increase in value and find new use cases. But how that translates into a dollar figure is very hard to determine.

This.  Anything can happen, just look at the history of big company failures like Enron.  However there are too many supporters for it to just disappear.  I notice more businesses taking it as payment, more people aware of it (if not using it), and even governments taking notice and enacting national laws about it.  These things point toward positive growth in the long run.  There will always be price fluctuations but you have to look at the why not the what.  I once bought a stock at 28$ that dropped to ~20 after I bought it.  But not only did the fundamentals stay the same, they got better.  For whatever reason investors were bearish about the company.  I held and now its worth ~110$ a share.  You have to keep an eye on the fundamentals not on the speculation.

Fact is nobody really knows the real answer to this question. Yeah, one could say that things can suddenly imploded and whatever worst case scenario that we thought could never happen, might in fact happen after all. But as what you've said, we have seen people putting their best effort into it, be it investment in terms of time or money, and I'm sure these people would have known what they are doing. And obviously they see a chance in it.

^ Likely one of the winners in this game. Too many starry-eyed groupies, blinded by Bitcoin's fame, were attracted like moths to the flame.

What do other people think ?

I think it was pretty much proven the other day that there isn't some conspiracy by banks and governments to destroy Bitcoin, considering a handful of testers spammed the network and brought it to a standstill of processing transactions for 8 hours at the cost of approximately $5000 in transaction fees (which is nothing).


If a bank or government really wanted to destroy Bitcoin, they could easily do so by clogging the network for days or weeks by spamming transactions all day to fill blocks, and considering they have not done so, they clearly don't consider it a threat.

bitcoin is already growing, each day with plenty of new big name joing the whole new crypto world

i think that we have already reached the non return point, for the bad position, don't look to much at the price now, it's not a good indicator of what we are aiming