Bitcoin Forum

I used to think it was 2011's because 30 -> $2 is a 95% crash. And people thought bitcoin was truly dead. But bitcoin bottomed 5 months after the crash.

1200 -> $152 was "only" an 88% crash, but 18 months later, it's not clear that there's even a bottom.

Which crash do you think was worse?

I didn't arrive until 2013. But I would probably say 2011 based upon the forum posts from that time. People really thought bitcoin was dead. This bear market may have been longer but we know that it is just moving coins from weak hands to strong hands before the ride starts again.

I sadly have to agree, the worst is yet to come!  :(
The good news is that we probably won´t crash more than 100%

lmao...true enough I guess :/

:D :D :D :D

I don't really care about 2011 because I wasn't involved in bitcoin then.
2014 has been a blood bath though & tbh I'm bleeding from the jugular.
I've HODL'D strong the whole way through but it's been awful, really awful.
I pray this never ending bear market can be halted & we begin to rise.
It's all a bit depressing atm, something needs to happen.

it is far easy to overcome a 95%, when you talk about a mere numbers like $30 and $2, not so easy to do the same thing with 1200--->200 or if in the future it will happen again(for sure) with even bigger number(let's say 10k-->1200)

the more we rise, the hardest will be to return to the previous price, every time there is a bad fall

You should not forget that the number of people involved and the services that were build were also much lower. The higher price is atleast partially offset by a greater number of people/services/cash involved.

this is true, but many people can move the price from 2-to 30, because the market was a joke back then, not so much with a bigger market and a price with 4-5 zeroes

at that point only many hands or very rich guys can move it

You are right. Anybody with a decent amount of fiat could buy a couple of hundred to thousand btc back then. Coupled with lower volumes the impact was probably bigger. Didn't think of that.

It took way more time now. So even if BTC will go to $60 will still 2011 crash be bigger. IF it will go under $30 then that is different story

imho 2014, because there were much more merchants, companies and business involved..so overall impact was bigger for sure.(

Probably 2014 as the bear trend appears that it will continue until the halving then who knows what will happen.

The first "crash" was much smaller than the second, since there was very low volume involved (fiat-wise), where this recent one was the only "actual crash".
The very fact that after all those mega-fails with gox pump and dump, price manipulation, and legal battles were still in 3 figure number means that there IS notable support.
If we continue falling, it will be a slow process that will stop evetually, but if we go into another hype, i believe it's going to be an commendable one.

cheers

I disagree with the notion that only rich hands can touch it once bitcoin has 4 or 5 zeroes behind it. By its very nature, bitcoin can be broken down to a much smaller decimal place. If one bitcoin becomes worth 10,000 (five zeros), then one bit becomes worth $0.01. Right now, 1 bit is equal to $0.00023. Therefore, if bitcoin goes up in price, the average person stops investing in whole bitcoin and, instead, uses bits. I actually believe there is a trend occurring where we stop talking about bitcoin and start talking about bits. Instead of owning 3.2 bitcoin, I own 3,200,000 bits.

Once you take this into consideration, the recover from $200 to $1,000 is as easy as the recovery from $2 to $30, especially since there is that rich money participating now. And more importantly, since the past was built predominately on speculation, we'll see a true recovery over the coming months and years because there will be increased usage.

agree, I also think so

2014 was much worse for two reasons.

1. More money was involved in the 2014 crash. More businesses were involved as well as individuals.

2. I wasn't involved in BTC in 2011

2014 sucked more, because many more whiners were holding and mass media tried to make a circus out of it.

If we continue falling then 2014 would be worse both in time span and depth of the crash. Otherwise 2011 was a worse depth of crash, but 2014 had a worse crash duration.

Also all previous crashes bottomed much faster than 2014. Repeatedly hitting what I thought was the bottom, then going lower made 2014 he worst overall crash for me.

The first crash was based on gridlocks on a exchange, so less vicitims to buy it.

Since mt.gox DDOS for the 1st time, with their price hits. 2014 seems to hit more, since the price did hit with VCs.

most of the merchants use bitpay to convert their bitcoin sales into fiat. which means that they don't suffer even when there is a huge crash.

You couldn't short back then, so everyone benefited when bitcoin increased in price = everyone was on the same side


Now with shorting some people benefit when the price goes and people purposely crash the price. Fuck the shorters

Also, 2014 is worse because I got into bitcoin.... everytime I try to make money I fail miserably, sorry guys, pretty sure I ruined it for everyone. As long as I hold on to my bitcoin, we will NEVER see another ATH. The universe hates me

2011 was MUCH worse. Hardly anybody knew about Bitcoin, nobody besides a bunch of geeks on this forum cared, and it was a very real possibility that the price-crash would kill the momentum necessary for the world to take notice of this fascinating new technology/money.

Contrast that to the current depression, where yeah, price has been down for longer, but now Bitcoin has major champions at all levels society, from entrepreneurs, VCs, big financial firms like Goldman and NYSE, and many others. The biggest battle - getting over the initial mindshare hurdle - is thoroughly behind us. There are certainly still adoption risks, but nowhere near as severe as in 2011.

Of course 2014's was worse because bitcoin market cap was greatly decreased & there were many people using it :(
And after than there aren't any huge pump, some people even that big crash would happen again

crash in 2011 was worst ........ because price dropped from $32 to jut $2

well that seems very comparable to 2014, when it was like dropping $700 to $600 right.

both are 100% price reduction.

I think the crash of 2014 was much worse simply because,

* Bitcoin was at an early age in 2011 so it was expected, but in 2014, it was so much evolved and integrated with economy. So it meant much more critical drawbacks.

Depends on what you mean by "worse."

More money lost by traders? Yes, worse. More money made by other traders? Yes, not as worse for them.

Innovation? I don't think it had an impact on innovation.

I don't really think either crash mattered more than they were/are just a cycle of things.

what? something is wrong from a math point of view

from 700 to 600 there is only 1/7 reduction in price, which is about 14,2%

from 32 to 2 it is a whole different thing, there is a reduction of 30/32 or 15/16, which is 93,75%..

Feels wrong to compare a crazy day spike to $32 to an 18 month slide. The best price in June 2011 was much more likely to be $17 than $30. Somewhat similar to the spike to $266 in mid 2013, it more than halved in a day when gox soiled the sheets. The 2014-15 bear is a completely different animal, not a blow off top, but a slow, excruciating, grind down over many months.  

The early crashes were worse in severity, but nothing like this bear in terms of drawn out torture.

The worse crash I think 2011.
2014 is not different, since in 2013 price reach $1000.

I browsed through my old emails and noticed how I asked my sister if she could buy me btc for $130 at about $4/BTC in 2011. (I first bought them at about $14 on the way down from the 2011 top). I gave her the money but she didn't buy because she was afraid to send money to unknown (Gox) account. That really sucked because now I'd have 30 btc more. I could have bought them myself, but the bank fees from my country were so high.

In late 2011 and 2012 I was busy with my work and didn't think much about increasing my btc holdings (a mistake). I don't recall I felt scared or lost faith in BTC because of $14-$2 drop.

2014's crash was expected, but I didn't think it would last so long considering all positive development in last 1.5 years. I even recommended buying btc on the way down from $1000 which was a mistake and I'm glad that none of my friends did it.

However, now might be a great time to invest - no btc price rising news frenzy, no post-baloon doom frenzy. The price looks stable, and the next rally might be days or just few months away. If I had to bet I'd say it'll be $230 - $3000, but I'll probably be very wrong (i.e. $100 - $10000; few small baloons...)

For bears - there's no possibility of price staying in this range much longer. The number of users, VC investment and transactions is growing - the $3B ($30B also) MCap is simply not enough. The bitcoin price can go to zero (10% chance of unexpected event/bug/altcoin...), but it cannot stay below say $2000 for more than a year.

This is one of those rare situations when a (positive) investment outcome is almost certain, just nobody invests heavily. You can wait for a buy signal (i.e. price crossing $300 or $400), but why earning 5x when you can 10x.