Bitcoin Forum

BTC history how i remember it, doesnt have to be exactly as charts say..

~30 USD spike  
~50 USD spike
Public awareness happened.
~250 USD spike
~1250 USD spike

Now we're at ~220-230 USD.
My question is; to what price would bitcoin have to go for the public mojority to say; Bitcoin is dying, or bitcoin is thriving !

When you look at it, the strongest movement upward (regardless of the initial cause) happens when older players who previously dumped rebuy coins,
and the strongest down pressure is when there's no incentive to expect price rising anytime soon.
So there are two positions, lower, and upper price, that decide what will happen next, so where do you think they are ?

imho;
- the lower point, the point of no return would be 50-70 USD range, where the majority would probably turn their back on bitcoin as an investment and/or viable payment option for mass adoption.
- the upper point would have to be around atleast 1500-2000 USD for the people to be confident how that isnt just another pump

*If the price continues to move within 150-400 USD, it's quite possible that people will eventually loose interest and walk away, making the price nosedive to point of no return (~50-70USD), where only
  rare idealists still support and believe in bitcoin.

Your thoughts?

i.e.
Point of no return up - 50$
Point of no return down - 2000$

Upcoming price movement will look a bit like this...

https://ngronde1012.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/pic21.jpg

lol ok, but will it touch the value from where it will no longer be probable for it to rise back up ?
I believe you missed the point i wanted to make/ask about. All the price zig-zag is not important in the big picture.

Either way, I don't think there is a point of no return price at all.

Well we're getting awfully close to that point with the upcoming fork and all drama surrounding it.
I don't think the price movements of the past few days are any positive indicators, movements in the order books also show an increasing sell pressure and less and less buyers every time i hit F5.

People are just losing confidence in the system, and rightly so. In my opinion it's fair to say the experiment has failed. (Yea i know it still holds value... -.-)

Don't you think it would be safe to say that bitcoin would evetually be abandoned by majority if the price would touch let's say;10$ ?
Sure, many would buy some coins just in case ti ressurects, but it would make the dream of large scale adoption insanely unlikely..

No matter the price there are project that will use bitcoin without people having any clues they will be using it. i.e. https://www.goabra.com/ that wants to be the Uber of remittance using bitcoin under the hood without people even knowing it. Bitcoin will move forward no matter what speculators think of it.

everyone will see it as the second train from sub 100 already , no need to go as low as <10, they will start to buy in bulk, and buy really big, and for this reason the price will never touch that value, worst case may be 100-200 range or the continuous trend of this stagnation

i think if the price continues to fall and we don't see any movement upwards, we will see a lot of people sell and leaving bitcoin behind. even if the downward trend is slow i think this would eventually happen.
this is because a lot of them bought in the last few months and hoped for a big profit and their investment has only returned negative profit for them.

and "the point of no return" i think is going to be something below $100 and that is when we will see a massive dumping.

i also think it will dip below $200 but definitely not under $100. that wouldn't be a fair price for bitcoin in its current state.

Point of no return - crash to 50-70$ dollar, "recovery" to 100-120$ after that slow death and prices around 10$ oder lower

With the advent of leverage the people who decide the price, the traders, can afford to be a lot more agnostic about the overall price.

That's of zero help to the people who actually require a certain value to the keep the whole show operating.

The 100-200 range is easily achievable again. The more time it spends mired around or below there the greater the numbers of people who actually count - organic buyers, overstretched miners, companies like Bitpay that depend on actual expenditure - will fall away.

All money depends on pooled faith and trust in it, even more so when it's 100% voluntary like Bitcoin. I don't think a fresh wave of people would enter at a considerably lower price when the ones who had supported it up to that point were gone.

It's definitely not 'too big to fail'. A cascading abandonment en masse would be very hard to come back from.

The concept will live on whatever happens. The actual money and effort thrown at it so far may well go up in smoke. The wider world ain't gonna blink either.

Hmmm where did i read that before?
Ah yea i remember... at 700... 600... 500... 400... 300... 200...

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as definitely.

Point of no return is when and IF bitcoin price falls under $100. but I doubt that we will see that day anytime soon.

but if price continues this way, and gets to that point in a short tem, it is gonna be catastrophic but if takes so long that people get use to the price it might be different.

¸

Don't think that 100$ would be enough for people to back off, since there's a lot of money in bitcoin related industry, so i guess the people would mass buy and gold,
however, going way under it, like 50-60 bucks.. im pretty sure people would stop dreaming about 10k bitcoin and such, and just turn their backs on it.

Funny that the perma-troll's memory only serves her for a year or so of price history.  If she had any legitimacy at all, she would be calling your attention to all the time's when the bears claimed that anything over a dollar wasn't a fair price for Bitcoin.  But I digress.  She also wouldn't be spending all of her time screaming, "Bitcoin is doomed" on a forum dedicated to Bitcoin.

The fact I can move my entire networth any where on the planet without anyone knowing is still insanely underestimated and talked about.  This is the first time EVER.. this has been possbile...  For the entire lenght of human history this has not been possible.  Gold was the best way but still easily found on a person.

I agree on advantages of bitcoin over alternatives, but i dont see how this relates to this thread ..

I am trying hard to see the point to this, how would $50-$70 be the point of no return and people lose interest you can only speak about your self losing interest, the whales will be back at that price to make more money than they have for awhile and that will give the USD addicts excitment and they will be back at the higher price for a change. Myself I think this would be actually good for bitcoin and the community to go to this point shaking the tree and people who are here for a quick buck will be gone when they have the best chance at making that buck. Bitcoin does not need to keep being tagged to the dollar high or low to be a success or failure imo the sooner people realise this the better. I will be here till the blockchain does its last transaction or until I give my last breath either way the price won't sway me and anyone that it does I'm glad to see you gone rahaha

This will soon be something wildly wanted by the vast majority of humans.  

I love to see people talk, but it has no weigh, so put your money where your mouth is. Or u cosider your 100$ investment as backing up "bitcoin"
"I give my last breath either way the price won't sway me" - wow.

Can you please point me where i said that i will be gone? Dont really see the point of going off now after all these years, but i have seen a lot of big mouths like you come and gone with the wind tho..

cheers

I do not agree. Bitcoin a while back crashed from $30 and stopped. at $2. It did not go back to say 50c. I have seen somewhere but now cannot find it a chart showing that $50-$60 in 2015 is roughly what the $2 was back then.
So if it goes down to that level for a while so be it. If it continues on its exponential growth from there it will still do fine.

agree though that at that level while users of bitcoin (eg to send remittances) are still ok the people that work in it to hold it up may have difficulties.

maybe since it costs virtually nothing to send remittances the shortfall for the workers in the industry could be made up by higher charges.
I realize this goes against what some want for bitcoin but so long as it is cheaper than existing methods eg western union people will pay.

the biggest threat to bitcoin is not its price but its public relations. It needs people to be confident being involved with it - from both big and small players. The current squabble about the 1 MB limit is an example - it is fine and even healthy for it to go on for a short time but if it goes on and on then confidence that "bitcoin is OK" will wane and may never return

I dont think public relations are threat at all. People will not even know they use Bitcoins. Companies and banks will just use what is cheapest for them to provide their service they will not explain their customers or they are using blockchain or any other technology. People dont even care. What they care is that their service will be fast and cheap.

point of no return down < $186

point of no return up > $253


* I reserve the right to change these estimates at any time of my choosing.

I did not mean PR for the users (ie remitters). I agree people will use fast and cheap and will not care how the mechanism works. I meant PR for getting certain keys pieces in place. we have been  going 5 plus years with bitcoin but there is not yet an exchange you could call "normal". To get "normal' yet need to spend the sort of money/time the twins are doing. They may be able to essentially self fund but other ventures/startups need capital and that only comes when the people putting in the money have confidence. They only gain confidence when the thing they are investing in is explained to them.
Take Apple - it did the PR so well through Steve that customers/investors etc became essentially fans. they willingly paid huge premiums for an apple product.

Bitcoin does not have a CEO or Chairman of the Board. That is good and bad. the bad part is that there is no one out there selling confidence in bitcoin.

I would have said $31.9099 was a better target. There's still a gap between that and $50 that was never filled on the run up to Karpele's giant man-tits, er, I mean the bubble.

There is no price so low of "no return". If the price is forever stable or decreasing we might lose the speculators, but in the end its the usefulness of the technology that will determine demand and thus price.

I think that's backwards. If the price is stable at a multi-billion-dollar market-cap, which is what that range indicates, and the bitcoin network continues to process transactions successfully every day, more and more mainstream people, businesses, etc, will gain confidence in it. The wild swings - both up and down - are what give "serious" people pause. A long period of stability in that range will most likely just build broader confidence in bitcoin overall, and cause people who've been curious but on the sidelines for a while, to finally dip in.

This thread is making me bullish. OP asks for upper and lower prices that would signal further movement in either direction and 95% of the posts are about the lower price. I don't think we're going much lower but I would call $150 an important level on the low end. On the higher end, I think we get to $400 or $500 before the public notices again. Hysteria starts 10-20% above the previous ATH.

not sure about this, if we falls to single digit, bitcoin cannot recover anymore( it does not mean that it is dead though) but that it is done

not to mention that something like this will bring again bad distribution, with few strong hands

even if the price goes to $10k, there will be people calling it a pump and dump.

The price needs to be stable for many years, with people using it for things other than speculation in order for people to stop saying it will die, its a ponzi, etc.

if the price stays stable, that is great but in case of forever decreasing means the death of bitcoin. nobody would buy something that is going to worth less tomorrow.
the technology is great and i think bitcoin started a whole new world but if the price just keeps going down, eventually everyone is going to sell their coins and leave it behind.

We have many new players coming to bitcoin all the time in the form of retailers, traders and miners mostly.  Yes, the "miners" portion is probably slowing down a little bit but they are still coming.  I see newbies in the mining threads all the time asking questions about mining.  The new one's who come along pick up the slack of any oldies who may have left bitcoin behind.  Especially, the newbies to trading bitcoin.

We are still very early in the game for bitcoin.  It's a new technology to most; much like the internet and email was to most when it first came out.  These things take time.  So, be patient and let the blockchain work things out.

We have many venture capital groups who have invested a lot of money into the technology of the blockchain.  Many user friendly apps for financial institutions will be coming out soon and will change the way billions in the world live their daily lives.  Many here may give up on bitcoin for lack of patience.  However, I know billions on this earth who have yet to even hear of it who will gladly accept it with open arms and give it the support it needs in great numbers.  There is strength in numbers.

As people in other parts of the world come into the fold of technology with smart phones and the like, we will see a increased enthusiasm for bitcoin - the application.  As other applications are created and used on the blockchain [with a relative ease of use and security] news will go around about the blockchain.  Bitcoin is not the blockchain.  The blockchain is bitcoin.  The blockchain is more than just bitcoin.  The blockchain is MANY things we have yet to see, but will see in time that will change the way we do many things in the future.

So, be patient...  The future is here...  It only needs a little time to play out.  In June of 2007 (eight years ago on June 29) we had the iPhone or the term, "smart phone."  That was only 8 years ago, people. Nobody ever heard the term, "Smart phone" until eight years ago.  Eight years is only a blink of an eye.  The "drama" in the price of bitcoin fluctuation is what it is - "drama."  We haven't had eight years yet with bitcoin.  

Do not fret!  Bitcoin (the app) will have it's day of recompense.  We just need to be patient and wait on the many other things the blockchain can do.  It's all about "the blockchain."  Not bitcoin!  Bitcoin, is only an application on the blockchain.  Be patient and watch how many other apps created using "the blockchain" technology changes the world.  THEN, you will see a change for the better in how the rest of the world values any other applications, such as bitcoin, using the blockchain technology.

All this talk of saying, "If the price goes below this amount, it's over."  I feel the price of bitcoin is directly related to the value of "the blockchain."  If the blockchain does well, then most any application using the blockchain will do well; as long as it's user friendly.  We are making progress in leaps and bounds with "user friendliness" ever since the blockchain and bitcoin first came out.  Give it time folks.  The blockchain and and it's apps [Including Bitcoin] will do wonders for mankind the same way the internet has.  Just give it time.  

Those who give up on it will lose in the end for their lack of patience.  Six years is but a fart in the wind in view of time and how technology changes.  As more time passes, we will see great strides in the blockchain and many user friendly apps using the blockchain technology; including bitcoin.

David

One of the most beautiful comments I've seen since while ago.

Well said Mr. David.

If you don't mind, I want to quote this reply and post it in the usd/btc speculation thread.

Thank you.

Yeah I think that if we reach 50$ btc will not be anymore the dominant coin, we will see a massive outflow of money and the few people remaining will look for appealing altcoins and we could see a redistribution of wealth in the cryptocurrencies world. I don't even know if there are altcoins out there that offer as much as Bitcoin, but the thought of this happening is making me consider taking a look. I'm pretty sure that reaching that level could be the beginning of the end though.

@dmwardjr Thx, I needed that.

The altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin's price movements. When Bitcoin goes down, all the altcoins go down in price. If Bitcoin goes down to $50 I guess all the alts will drastically fall in price. I doubt any of them will take Bitcoin's place.

it could be speculative move down,create small panic,make noise and buy fron scarry people
i think btc will finally move up slowly,slowly

I don't mind..  You are welcome to make any corrections to grammatical errors, etc...  I see a few after reading through it again.  I didn't take the time to read through or phrase things better.  Some things were a bit redundant as well.

Have a great weekend!

Thank you!

You're welcome, Sir!

The problem is knowing when that correction will come, and how big will it be. For example it could come say at $400, and you'd still make a lot of money buying in now. That's the fun part of investing, or I should say speculation.

for everyone that is really believing in the rise, this is the best opportunity to buy, but many of those are saying that but they are not actually doing it, there is still that small % of thinking that bitcoin might not rise anymore, and will remain at current price forever

Price can go both up and down, but i seriously doubt that it will stay where it is, bitcoin seams to be dependent on price oscillations. For now, price not going under 200 is a great success.
Regarding people saying one thing and doing the other; well, many believe that the price will go back up, but due to their financial state cant afford to invest anymore.
cheers

I personally believe the reason we are staying where we are at the moment is because those who would be bullish are in protect mode.  They know if they buy the market up to higher than 245, the market will only sell it back down in consolidation moves.  We still have a bit too much downward pressure from the miners and retailers.

Those who would be bearish will not sell it down below 220 because they know a lot of players are itching to buy any bitcoin sub 220.  Especially, sub 200.  If it goes below 200 again, it would not stay there very long at all.  220 is definitely our bottom of the bowl [So to speak].

I say 220 is the bottom of the bowl because with bitcoin price this low it makes it easier for smaller players to buy a whole bitcoin and compete against the whales who would want to buy in large quantity.  Way more little fishy's than their are whales.  There is strength in numbers.  The whales had a hard time buying what coin they could the last time it was sub 200 because very little of it was for sell compared to the numbers wanting to buy.  There was just too much competition to buy sub 200 last time and the whales found this out the hard way.  That's why I believe the likelihood of us going sub 200 again is quite unlikely.  But, if we do, it will not stay sub 200 very long at all.  The bottom [With equal resistance from both sides] has been found.

These are my "opinions."  I'm not saying this is the way it absolutely is.

Good day,

David

it's a matter of time before we see bitcoin below $200 as i don't think current level can hold it for another month. too much pressure.

Why?

I can't see the selling pressure doing worse than now

Me either.

For Bitcoin to withstand all the downword presssure, it's a miracle.

it's simple. most traders don't have patience. at some point traders will dump because they are tired of looking at the same price for ages. remember that plenty of traders are looking for quick profits. something they are not getting now.

You are very correct, Randy.  Most do not have patience.  That is definitely what is needed right now.  One cannot allow emotion to take control in trading bitcoin.  It's best to make good decisions with minimal risk BEFORE moves in price to determine what one would do if the price were to increase a certain amount or decrease a certain amount.  Then act, based on those decisions.  It's also good to keep enough capital in reserve to do even stop loss buys when the price of bitcoin is at its present low.

let them dump, there will be buyers buying their cheap coin, and those buyers will consolidate the enw floor, because unless they want to lose money, they can't dump at the same floor

dumping is good, it help building floor, if we rise too fast then you get something like a castle build with paper

We can expect more of the same for a while until few are willing to sell this low ($220'ish).  Whales are waiting for the order books to fill with large sell orders from miners, retailers and the like.  Once they see this, we can expect a bull rally up to 240'ish again (Buying those large sell orders).  This will leave room for consolidation again over the course of a couple of weeks back down to 220'ish again.  We can expect this for months to come until we have big news.

$223.00 is actually an excellent time to buy!  Those who are not buying right now are wishful thinkers in my opinion.

IMO there is no "point of no return". There is a lot of people waiting at the sidelines to get in, but they don't for a plethora of reasons, mainly a mixture of the uncertainty of the price and not really knowing what Bitcoin is and how does it work. All of those dubious people will eventually make a move and enter the market, which would result in a pump.