Bitcoin Forum

For the past week we've seen a lot btc shifting towards unknown addresses and exchange addresses, the sell walls seem to be growing and overall pressure is becoming critical.
We could be looking at a 25% drop this upcoming week.

Are you that guy who sold his coins for $10?

Ah, ok.


Riiight.


O rly?


Crash? What crash?


Selling your coins at $10 then telling us to sell ours? LOL

Quoting to laugh at you when we see another of a prediction of yours failing

I think he got burned, this is what i can tell based from his past posts:

Most of the bears/shorters come from this zone.

OP is a legendary member. He has been in bitcoin for nearly 3 years. He should be the knowledgeable enough to know this is the time to buy, before the halving and with the recent uncertainty. He didn't get burnt. He is trolling, wants to buy cheap coins.

It looks pretty shitty on medium high timeframes yeah, looks like this is it. I loved Bitcoin so much

With Gavin as King to Bitcoin it is certainly overvalued. -25% sounds reasonable to me.

$235 > $225, it seems too normal.

Sideways steadily down for next few months is my vote!

BTC price is ranging between 220-240$ ,we can see some upper side movement this month but its hard to break the 250$ level

Please give us more of these nice quotes if this guy.. It seems to make him stop posting this nonsense..

If there is a 25% drop though, I'll finally buy some new coin :-)

EDIT: Although, now that I see his activity/posts, he probably only posts once a day, so maybe that is why he hasn't replied

Also something i noticed... People keep repeating that at every price level.
If it does drop like i predict you and many others will probably just say the same; "well it's looking pretty dimm right now, i'll wait for it to drop another 25% to buy..."
That's part of how we arrived at this low value in the first place.

You have wrong for 6 months and(speaking of repetition) have predicted 80 of the last two selloffs.

You are up there with Nagle (arguing bitcoin overpriced at 2 dollars..shortly goes up 500X) in terms of making legendary bad calls - selling your coins at 10 dollars then watching the price rise 120 fold. Fuck me that must sting!

Ahh Kwukduck is talking trash again...

Bann him ore remove his legendary status to newbie and put him in the troll jail ore something.

It's time to dump everyday. If you aren't dumping daily there is something wrong with you.

My proctologist approves this message!

Maybe i'm dead wrong, it wouldn't be the first time either but you're also aware that i made very accurate predictions in the past as well.

Right now the market is absolutely not doing what i'm expecting it to do on a small scale, but i feel strongly that the negativity towards bitcoin and the downward pressure are very high.

If we do not break this price point soon you can actually consider me quite neutral or even slightly positive on the future value.

Hehe made me laugh

Wow...never knew kwukduck used to be a bull....always sad to see a bull-to-bear conversion.

I think we will see sideaway movement longer time,something really big has to happen to move btc price up
lower price will kill mining

lower price will kill mining? the difficulty is only going up. and that while the price has been going down for quite some time now. the only way i can see difficulty going down is when the price drops to low $100

if we stay in this current position for too long then the future miners will be so efficient that it will be profitable for them to mine even at a price below 100

Is that supposed to comforting?  :D

what exactly do you mean with future miners? people who are going to buy hardware sooner or later to start mining? those who have dirt cheap power rates and already reached roi will always continue no matter what the price is, as long as they make profit.

checks knc, they have announced their 16nm asic, more efficient , therefore less consumption(basically it is like approcing free electricity), it mean that they will make profit even with a lower price

Yes until everybody else has similar chips in their miners. Then mining chips are going to match the latest production node which only improves according to the now stalling moores law.

just had a look, and yes, they are impressive, but if the difficulty keeps rising the "more profitable" weeks/months will also stop being an advantage. then you have to buy other equipment to stay up to date.

How come I see Hero and Legendary members all the time, who don't understand how mining works?

well then explain what it is wrong in my statement, and not just "you're wrong" because we aren't going anywhere with your claim

Sry, not fair of me. It just happens quite often among the "seniors" and it baffles me.

The hashrate hasn't had a significant increase since november. Since then, the zigzag movement between 40 and 50 billion has been down to unprofitable miners bailing and profitable miners increasing their share and switching to newer gear. But the pain threshold for current tech at $220 is at a difficulty between 40-50billion. If we stay at the $220 mark when 5x more efficient next gen gear is introduced, then the pain threshold will gradually move up from roughly 50 billion to a difficulty of about 200-250billion. The difficulty chases the price+technology advancements. The price doesn't chase the mining costs. Remember, BTC output is fixed. Nor would all the miners turn unprofitable if the price moved below $100, regardless of current gen or next gen. The least profitable ones will bail and the remaining will be the best capitalized ones with the lowest costs. The cost per BTC for the remaining miners will be lowered accordingly due to the lower network hashrate and difficulty.

Admittedly, it is a bit unclear to me with what you mean by "current position". If you worry that price follows mining costs, like it can in other commodities, then that is wrong. If you mean that difficulty will remain unchanged and miners will just make a ton of extra profits, then that is wrong. If you mean that new tech will enable miners to stay profitable when BTC is under $100, while the network would just collapse if we continued to mine with current tech, then that would be wrong. The misunderstanding I see most often is that the price of BTC will fall down to the cost of production, because that's what traders are used to in commodities, and that was what I at first assumed you meant.

ok that's better, i meant exactly this, and i can't see how it will be wrong, besides that the network won't collapse, if for them it remains profitable to mine

i don't see any difference if the ratio will be always the same, let's say that now they are doing 2:1 ratio, in the sense of a 100% pure profit at the net of all cost, now,  the price go to, let's say, 1/3 of what it is in this moment, so around 80(just to have a easy number) but their efficience  will be so high that their electricity will be 1/3 too in cost, versus what it is now, so instead of wasting let's say 1GW/h they are wasting 300MW/h

in the end they will earn less yes, but there will be always profit as long as the ratio between profit and electricity cost will remain the same

I'm a bit confused by your example. But if a mining company has access to 1MW of continuous power draw (nobody has access to 1GW), that company would max that out on whatever tech is class leading. If they used to run 1Ph they will run 5PH with next gen. What you will see, if the price of BTC drops to $80, is that the network will consume less energy. This is due to that those with the highest costs will fall off the bandwagon and close shop, not because of mining HW efficiency. The same BTCs that are released at a fixed rate still pay for the costs of the network. The process will look the same regardless of the efficiency of the HW. The only difference would be the hashrate and difficulty.

If, however, the price dropped to $80 in the very near future, we might have a bit of a problem. The only 16nm miner in existence is the KnC Solar, and they're not selling them. If KnC keeps pumping out 16nm machines for their data centers, thus not allowing the hashrate to fall, we might get a situation where everyone else become almost instantly unprofitable. This will not be pretty. First of all, KnC will have more than 51% of the network. Secondly, even if they turn off some of their gear to avoid that, almost every other company, who doesn't have access to 16nm HW, will still see further operations as unfeasible. Just the fact that everyone knows that KnC has enough hashing power to kill the network is enough to kill the network. Not to mention what will happen with the price of BTC through all of this.

I remember a quote from KnC where they said that there is $Xbn up for grabs (by mining and selling BTC) and they intend to take as much of it as possible. I think they mentioned a target of 40% of the network, and they are not in it for BTC, they want fiat  :-\

I hope the rest of the community will deny them that.

The week had begun so now you think they will start sell?

So you suggests to those that need bitcoins to wait till Friday to buy and not now?

Its this week now and didn't saw any signs of a 25% drop. You got another additional points for making a wrong prediction :)

Nice dump!  :D

The price is dumping upwards. Is that what you meant, Kwukduck?

The price has been $200ish firm, I dont think people will.

And if they do its their own personal reasons, like if they needed the money bad or something, but not the overall holders.

Despite some people dumping, I think its still pretty solid?

I dont know about you guys, but I rather dump it when it jumps up $50 difference then right now.

I'll probably hold some coins from my earnings and wait for another 5yrs.. Im not in for the quick profits :)

probably only miners are dumping now, see knc thread(and not even all their mined coins, i presume around 50%, to cover electricity and turn some profit), this is why is so solid

big players have stopped dumping, they are shorting all the time, when miners dump, it seems that no one want that the price fall below 200-230

a good sign indeed

Soon all these panic sellers will calm down and then price will go back to 300+.  Then we just need to wait , till then ignore all fucking trolls,  if you have invested heavily, you can cut your loss.

There hasn't been much panic selling lately. Someone put up a 10k Bitcoin sell wall on Bitfinex last night, but it didn't frighten many people into dumping. The price has been as stable as I have ever seen it recently and I'm beginning to think the stability might continue for some time yet.

What has happened after every crash? What will always happen after a crash? I don't want to sound like an annoying bitcoin holder by saying "buy to the moon" but it's obvious that this method has been successful every time.

 ;D

Please note that the "crash" didnt even happen since original post was created, the deadline speculating 25% drop expired few days ago, and the price actually seams
to be struggling to go upward instead. :)

cheers

BOOM. That was the bull dropping the bear.  Round two up next.

If anything, its overall climbing for 6 years, last time I checked.

Then again, from zero value to now holding mid $200 is a good sign for growth. Esp the twins exchanges is about to launch in a couple days officially.

do you think gemini is making its move like this too?

I know most have been anticipating the twins to launch a exchange, but do you think they`ll do what knc are trying to do?