Bitcoin Forum

Augur is a fully decentralized prediction market platform.  (What does this mean?  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo for an intro!)  I'm very happy to announce that we've just started our alpha test!  This is a public alpha, so everyone is welcome to come try out Augur and help us test drive it.

There are two ways to use Augur:

1. If you're not comfortable using a terminal, we have a no-download, immediately usable version at: http://demo.augur.net.  (We call this our "demo", but it is a live, fully decentralized blockchain -- you're just using our server's unlocked account!)

2. If you're more technologically savvy and really want to help us test the software, please go to http://www.augur.net/blog/the-augur-alpha-is-now-available-to-download for download/installation/launch instructions.

If you get stuck or have questions, please shoot me an email (jack@augur.net) or just respond to this post and I'll get back to you as quick as I can  :)

Ninja alpha ;D

Says blockchain not current on your alpha demo site.

I hope ninja Beta  ;D

When i run command geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain "http://client.augur.net http://localhost:8080" --shh --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" --bootnodes "enode://035b7845dfa0c0980112abdfdf4dc11087f56b77e10d2831f186ca12bc00f5b9327c427d03d9cd8106db01488905fb2200b5706f9e41c5d75885057691d9997c@[::]:30303 enode://4014c7fa323dafbb1ada241b74ce16099efde03f994728a55b9ff09a9a80664920045993978de85cb7f6c2ac7e9218694554433f586c1290a8b8faa186ce072c@[::]:30303 enode://12bcaeb91de58d9c48a0383cc77f7c01decf30c7da6967408f31dc793e08b14e2b470536ebe501a4f527e98e84c7f5431755eae5e0f4ba2556539ab9faa77318@76.14.85.30:30303" --unlock primary console
I get no keys in store error. 

When I run geth --rpc --rpccorsdomain http://client.augur.net --shh --unlock primary

The blockchain seems like it is syncing but won't connect to http://client.augur.net/.  The whole chain needs to sync right?

We're actually on a separate blockchain from the public Ethereum testnet at the moment.  (The reason for this is because they're stress-testing the network right now; we'll go back on the public testnet soon.)  So, you have to run geth with the --networkid 1010101 and --protocolversion 59 flags set (and set the data directory to be ~/.augur, so it doesn't conflict with the Ethereum data directory), as in the above command.  If you do that, and let the chain sync, you will be able to see our contracts!

Let me know if you have more trouble.

Haha, this is what we get for running a centralized demo for decentralized software!  ;D  Our server was having some issues and we just brought it back online -- demo.augur.net is up again.  Sorry for the hiccup!

Jack

Been following for a while ;)

I just realized I did not answer your question re: no keys in store!  Sorry about that (was up all night coding ;D).  Were you able to create an account from the geth console?  The command shown in our blog post should work.  Try this:

geth --networkid 1010101 --datadir "~/.augur" --protocolversion "59" account new

It should prompt you for a password, then show you your new address.  After that, try running the very long command from before -- it should work!  But let me know if it doesn't and I'll help you troubleshoot.

Jack

pretty interesting concept

Looks to be working now.  Getting blockchain loading message on localmachine and the number of markets displayed is rising when I refresh.  This is really cool!  Where can I get CASH?  I'm currently mining but am wondering anyway.
And so I can learn the acronyms.  Not sure what DAG stands for.
I0623 17:25:03.135339    6288 ethash.go:203] Done generating DAG for epoch 2, it took 8m45.6810672s

Also why is my ether balance bouncing all around?  it stopped but now I can no longer get anything from the faucet.  It worked the first time and showed 10,000 cash but all of a sudden that 10,000 cash disappeared and dropped balance to 0.

Hmm, it shouldn't be bouncing all around!  Are you using demo.augur.net, or the downloaded version?  If the downloaded version, what is your address?  You can get this as eth.coinbase from the geth console, or click on "Account" in the UI and it'll show you your address!

(DAG is short for "directed acyclic graph", which is used by Ethereum's proof-of-work algorithm.)

This looks very interesting, but I fail to see how it is any different from gambling?  Gambling odds adjust based on wagers too.  So it looks to me like you get to bet on things besides sports teams.  Could I make one for anything, like if a celebrity is going to die this year or who will be elected?  Or is this restricted to financial things?

It's a forecasting tool!  Yes, you can make a market for anything -- "who will be elected" is actually one very common (the most common?) use for prediction markets.  What's interesting about these markets is that they produce very accurate predictions (in the aggregate) for who will win the election.  Maybe more interesting than political markets are policy markets -- for example, will GDP go up or down if Hillary wins the election?  Will rates of violent crime in city X increase or decrease if it passes a law making panhandling illegal?

If you have a widely-used, liquid prediction market, you can simply look up the odds of...well, just about anything!  If you ask me, I think that -- if this takes off :) -- in 5 or 10 years, we'll look back to now and think, "Wow, we were living -- and somehow making plans! -- without knowing the odds that anything was going to happen!"  And that will seem just completely absurd to us.

All that said, prediction markets are actually a very general idea, and you're correct that you can create markets that are more like traditional gambling.  Personally, I find these gambling-esque use cases to be not terribly interesting; after all, if you want to wager on something like "where will the roulette wheel stop?" or "who's going to win the Superbowl?", there's already any number of casinos that would be happy to have your business!

I am using my own version.  The ups and downs of the ether balance seems to have stopped.  However I still have 0 cash and the faucet doesn't seem to be working for me.

Addy is: 0x02f65dbd13e63eb97024098844710e53bf6563b5

So far this is pretty cool.  Can't wait to actually get to try it out.

interesting idea...

You need to have a few ether in your account in order to do anything!  I just sent 250 ether to your account, which should bring everything to life for you.

Btw, anyone who's trying to use the downloadable version and is experiencing similar problems and/or having trouble mining, just reply to this post and/or email me (jack@augur.net) and I'm happy to send you some private chain ether so you can get started :D

Is the demo link not working i go to it and just get a blank page
Dont worry i have downloaded it and syronization has started does it take long ?

I just tried it -- it's working for me.  We've had a much bigger surge of interest than expected for an alpha test, and our server is struggling a bit to keep up.  (We're a non-profit, so no big venture bucks for us -- our geth node is just running on our showing-its-age-a-bit server...)  Give it 30 seconds to a minute -- it should load, it's just a bit slow!

If it's not loading at all for you, I can help you troubleshoot.  What OS/browser are you using?  All our testing so far has been done using Chrome (and a tiny bit of Firefox).  It should be cross-browser compatible of course, but I can't promise it is 100% so just yet ;D

It did come up eventually , i decide to download it is syncing atm , eta on sync by chance ??

It should only take ballpark 20-30 minutes (although it depends on your connection speed, of course).  Did you include those enodes in the --bootnodes geth flag?  If you go to the geth console, you can manually add nodes using admin.addNode:


Hope that helps!

That guy you have on your site in the yellow shirt clutching the stick looks maniacal like he is planning the destruction of the earth when that picture was taken.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure who picked that picture of Prof. Hanson, but we probably should put up a better/less maniacal one ;D

Very interested in this project....just wish it were more user friendly....completely lost at this point so need to find some better reference material, I guess.  Suggestions?

Is this an old thread?  Is there a new thread that I'm not aware of yet?

I s there a link to a new thread somewhere?  Or, is this project dead?

Am I the only person who visits this thread?  Where is a thread that has updated information?

Well it seems like many people missed this train, let's do math:

The final price was around 400 rep/bitcoin (230 usd)

With 3 bitcoins you own a little more than 1/10,000 of total reps.

Rep will get profit from fees.


In a conservative scenario where each month only 3 billion usd are wagered on this, ( today there are single sport events where more than that is wagered on a single day, i think the total amount wagered worldwide on sportsbooks and prediction markets is around 100 billion/month but who knows, it may be even 500 or 1000 billions.)

Let's take a 1% fee of that, that is 30 million usd.


Distributed into 10,000 parts the result is 3000 usd.


So with 3 bitcoins (690 usd) you had the opportunity to make at least 3000/month without doing anything.


Obviously all this is on the supposed scenario where they deliver and it goes successful after it.

@cjmoles, this project is not dead, just dont expect noise in next few months unitl they launch... you will see more stuff about this on the ethereum forum than here.

(bolded by me)
Good luck. Keep in mind there's always going to be competition.

Yeah but on this things you know the first or the main always get a huge share, just see the mcap of bitcoin compared to all the rest of alts.

I was just wondering why this thread was so small considering the 5.1 M dollar interest in the project.  I was thinking that maybe this was an orphaned thread and that maybe I was overlooking the favored thread.

In regard to the sportsbook example:  They're are games everyday....so....if the rep holder's reporting period is about every eight weeks....how does that translate?

I can't wait to get started with Augur. Christmas can't come soon enough.

Someone really wants AUGUR!

https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/augur

How long will beta last? How many more months until main net launch? Will exchange trading only start after main net is live?

This is a top ten coin at the moment. But for how long?

Someone was able to sell at 2btc that was lucky..

overpriced crap (for now) lol.

all polo bot action as usual.

What ico price? Including from initial price to last price. It is very expensiive in poloniex. I think the price is overpriced now.

11M limited supply. No mining.

augur was still in the stage to test but why at trading site poloniex already held

Do you mean testing of Augur prediction platform?

So Ico raised 5M its now 80M?

I guess wait until a more sensible cap of 10M is realised before dipping in or buy a clone when it arrives.

 Not sure about 10M cap. REP is trading from 0.015 to 0.02 in period Mar 3 - Oct 5.

Devs are planning to launch new thread?

October 11, 2016 -REP/Augur will be added soon ,info from eobot.

Where? To https://www.eobot.com/ ?

here

https://www.eobot.com/rep


I don't like those cloud mining site.

Hi,
I tried using the beta site, logged in, it says do not deposit real eth. but if i try to place a trade - buy or sell - there is a real eth gas charge,  And the screen says i do not have enough in my account.

hi, this project seems of good augur..some one know if there official thread, pls ?

Go Augur Go

is there any  official  ANN  of  Augur,  just want to when will the  mainnet of  Augur release ?

Your OP is made in 2 years ago, how about the alpha test going? If I am correct, it is still no beta release, very slow development, but the market cap is still quite large.

True, augur already entered eobot until recently

What can augur be used for?

Well...for those of us who bought in when bitcoin was in the low two hundreds, this project is only worth about 4x our initial btc investment because BTC went up by 12X since that point....I guess that's not bad.  It sure is taking a long time to develop, however. It is way beyond the anticipated timeframe benchmarks....I hope it's worth it!

This sounds great alpha test is happening now feeling excited about this. I would like to be part of this test so this will be another big market now all investors will be ready for big part and fun just for investing into this mega project.

augur is a big brother of  anticipating  marketing  projects,  but  I can not  hear  too many news  about  it  on  bitcointalk,  is there a slack  of this project ?  need to get more informations of this project.

The concept is very interesting, I think this will be able to help many people.
We are waiting for more information about this project, I hope will be more advantages that will make people interested

just heard augur dev team  has  added new members : Beau Gunderson (@ beau in Slack) and Dave Hoover (@ redsquirell in Slack)， and is working hard for  release  IDEO v3  ,    really good for  long term augur  investors.

Great, would like to participate with market predictions!. Can’t wait ))

What is the main thread for Augur?
I searched it but only found this one.
I need to know more about the project before investing more.