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Title: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on September 19, 2012, 10:36:25 PM I've seen this question being tossed around in various forum topics.
Hopefully I'm not repeating a thread. I thought it would be fun to see what everyone was thinking... I made the pole so you could change your vote. Hopefully after some well thought out arguments some may change their minds. ;D Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Akido on September 19, 2012, 10:57:19 PM I have a question, does network hash rate directly correlate to difficulty?
For example, right now if 21 TH/sec with a difficulty of 2.86M were to double to 42TH/sec would that directly double the difficulty to 5.72M and so on? Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: KIDC on September 21, 2012, 12:08:03 AM I have a question, does network hash rate directly correlate to difficulty? For example, right now if 21 TH/sec with a difficulty of 2.86M were to double to 42TH/sec would that directly double the difficulty to 5.72M and so on? I believe that is correct - a direct linear correlation. I'm not certain however, and would definitely like to hear from others that may know more about this. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: DeathAndTaxes on September 21, 2012, 12:11:20 AM Yes difficulty and hashrate are directly linear. Also technically the current exact hashrate is never known. It is simply estimated from difficulty and the average rate of block generation.
Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on September 22, 2012, 07:01:35 AM So correct me if I'm wrong but ball parking the monthly revenue for a 40Ghs Mining hardware would be ~420BTC at today's difficulty?
~9100BTC/day @ 26Ths @ 50BTC/block Therefore: $12 per BTC 5x = 84BTC = $1008 10x = 42BTC = $504 20x = 21BTC = $252 35x = 12BTC = $144 50x = 8.4BTC = $100.8 Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: dunand on September 22, 2012, 04:02:48 PM No customer will mine with a BFL asic miner @ 50BTC/block.
Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on September 22, 2012, 07:38:35 PM Oh duh... ::) my mistake. Yes the block reward will be at 25 by then... guess I'll have to half those estimates...
I may have to make another poll: Which will have greater returns? Buy ASIC Mining Hardware or just invest in BTC directly. I'm also coming to the conclusion that despite the technological leap that ASICs are, the $ Invested to $ Returns ratio will be similar to what we had in the GPU days once dificulty/hash rate balances out with most of the gains being as a result of power savings. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Unacceptable on September 22, 2012, 10:59:30 PM I'm also coming to the conclusion that despite the technological leap that ASICs are, the $ Invested to $ Returns ratio will be similar to what we had in the GPU days once dificulty/hash rate balances out with most of the gains being as a result of power savings. Exactly ;D The power consumption will be reduced by at least 60-80%,supposedly 8) Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: arklan on September 23, 2012, 12:49:57 AM Oh duh... ::) my mistake. Yes the block reward will be at 25 by then... guess I'll have to half those estimates... I may have to make another poll: Which will have greater returns? Buy ASIC Mining Hardware or just invest in BTC directly. I'm also coming to the conclusion that despite the technological leap that ASICs are, the $ Invested to $ Returns ratio will be similar to what we had in the GPU days once dificulty/hash rate balances out with most of the gains being as a result of power savings. yup. i am figuring the only way to keep my meager mining income (i only have about 300mhash) will be to increase my hash rate by at least a factor of ten... so, at a minimum, a jalpeno from bfl. i'm hoping, on the other hand, to get enough cash together to get something more like 30ghash or up... who knows, eh? Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on September 24, 2012, 06:57:17 AM I'm just re-posting this math from the BFL ASIC orders page...
30.768 Th confirmed so far... 455 Confirmed orders... 67.62GH per order average... * 7029 orders = 475.315Th 19x Current ~25Th No adjustments for unfilled orders Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: benco on September 27, 2012, 02:55:52 PM I'm just re-posting this math from the BFL ASIC orders page... 30.768 Th confirmed so far... 455 Confirmed orders... 67.62GH per order average... * 7029 orders = 475.315Th 19x Current ~25Th No adjustments for unfilled orders Hi, I think that: * 7000 valid orders is a nonsense, maybe 2000 * most of valid orders are 3.5GH jalapenos I'm sure that BFL hardware will change the mining completely, but expect more than +100TH from 01.01.2013 is simply unrealistic Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: slush on September 27, 2012, 03:27:22 PM * most of valid orders are 3.5GH jalapenos But many of valid orders are more Singles SC... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on September 28, 2012, 03:08:59 AM I did some quick figuring,
of the first ~200 order numbers about ~50 were reported. (ignoring dates only paying attention to order numbers ~1650- ~1850) So assuming that 100% of those 200 order #s were actually turned in to ASIC orders AND reported you'd have a lower limit of 4:1 ratio of order numbers to actual orders... Of course it's hard to believe that would continue across the entire order list. However it may serve as a possible lower limit to all this guesstimation. so 1/4 of ~20x is of course ~5x increase. So ~5x increase to ~20x seems to be a fairly reasonable possibility. Thoughts? data? Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Korbman on September 28, 2012, 03:54:30 PM I did some quick figuring, of the first ~200 order numbers about ~50 were reported. (ignoring dates only paying attention to order numbers ~1650- ~1850) So assuming that 100% of those 200 order #s were actually turned in to ASIC orders AND reported you'd have a lower limit of 4:1 ratio of order numbers to actual orders... Of course it's hard to believe that would continue across the entire order list. However it may serve as a possible lower limit to all this guesstimation. so 1/4 of ~20x is of course ~5x increase. So ~5x increase to ~20x seems to be a fairly reasonable possibility. Thoughts? data? Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110138.msg1225742#msg1225742). Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit) last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 02, 2012, 07:29:52 AM Agreed,
I read your paper, it was very good. I came up with a similar number in August, 8x, but for slightly different reasons. I just can't find the link where I posted it.... ??? I suppose those numbers may have to be adjusted up to account for the +50% efficiency of the BFL equipment. I wonder if Inaba made his calculations of "under 10x" before or after he knew of the final specs... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Korbman on October 02, 2012, 02:22:59 PM I read your paper, it was very good. I came up with a similar number in August, 8x, but for slightly different reasons. I just can't find the link where I posted it.... ??? Thanks! But now the data is outdated, so I'll be reworking it this month at some point. I'll keep the original as a reference and see how much as changed in 2 months. That might also give me a glimpse of the future. Always happy to read other people's analyses as well, since it helps to give me a different perspective. If you find your post, link it here! I wonder if Inaba made his calculations of "under 10x" before or after he knew of the final specs... I thought about that the other day as well. Even so, under 10x just means that the network rate will be under ~250TH/s [+/- 30TH/s] for the beginning of the ASIC changeover...which I still think is accurate even after the 50% increase for BFL. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: IMakeComps on October 03, 2012, 12:52:40 AM Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013.
Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Korbman on October 03, 2012, 03:19:23 AM Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013. Already know. The majority of those orders are fakes or incomplete. They can't be used to create an accurate model of future hash rates. Any backing behind your estimate, or is it just a hunch? Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Frequency on October 03, 2012, 08:14:55 PM Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013. Already know. The majority of those orders are fakes or incomplete. They can't be used to create an accurate model of future hash rates. Any backing behind your estimate, or is it just a hunch? it is all estimate because it all has to be calculated on the theory that asic systems bring what is promised, and they could just suddenly adjust there specs 2 mnd before shipments ... nobody knows. everybody paid... i am sceptic until the contrary is proven..... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Korbman on October 03, 2012, 09:11:43 PM it is all estimate because it all has to be calculated on the theory that asic systems bring what is promised [...] Quite right. But there's a difference between "pooping out random numbers on paper" and "backing your estimate with a well thought out analysis consisting of arithmetic and statistics". [...] and they could just suddenly adjust there specs 2 mnd before shipments ... nobody knows. Unlikely for first generation ASIC chips. They (meaning all known ASIC companies) low-balled it before to make sure they could all meet their original specs. Turns out, the chips can perform quite a bit better with some tweaking, so everyone adjusted their specs to properly compete with one another. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: SlaveInDebt on October 04, 2012, 08:45:58 AM Current Network ~20T/h
Estimated GPU's ~15T/h -75% leaving come block halving and ASIC hitting = ~11T/h of GPU's go offline. Listed BFL PreOrder's ~46T/h figure easily half aren't listed so x2 = 92T/h 4-5 fold increase in difficulty or 80T/h by the end of the year assuming BFL ship's all current preorders this year and no other ASIC's hit prior to 2013. Or if BFL is a long con a slight drop in difficulty. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: yrtrnc on October 07, 2012, 05:48:58 PM Notice how most people vote for the numbers in the middle! I wonder if they have done their calculations?
Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: Morblias on October 07, 2012, 06:48:06 PM Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110138.msg1225742#msg1225742). Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L8hKZinune9Cc7tWY9Pmx8J17BOxor7QNQAV03xROOc/edit) last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so. Wow! I was predicting 40x, but now that he said that I may have to recalculate my ROI guesstimate numbers. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 09, 2012, 06:13:16 AM FYI my previous post and guesses
This is what I tried to use as the rough middle point... I'd love to see what math people used to come up with their estimates, especially the 100x people. Maybe they are thinking about this topic in a new and different way that makes them come up with different numbers. Say $ invested in GPUs sold at loss then converted to ASICs? 100x is still possible... we have no way of confirming orders that are not reported. Maybe some crazy bastard bought $500,000 worth of Mini Rigs... Maybe I can assume hash rate to $ then sell those imaginary GPUs at a reasonable loss and convert directly to ASICs? Keeping it simple as I can. IMHO https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0 Approx 2500 orders there will be more orders as time goes on of course but then every order number doesn't = an actual unit. I just assumed the SC single per order = 40Ghash So I'm gonna give it a range 1250-3000 orders 50 Thash -> 120Thash 4-10X difficulty Personally I think most GPUs will become unprofitable at the lower end of that threshold and I'm not sure how many FPGAs are out there so I'd say -80% of the current hash rate based on GPUs will dissolve. So +/- on that by 20% As for Shipping times: BFL gave themselves till OCT +2 months and according to our records they are about two weeks slower than they say 4-6 weeks = 6-8 weeks. I'd say the very first shipments for the first month of orders will start shipping last week of Sept until as late as the start of the new year. (Oct + 2 months plus "awe screw it it's only two more weeks late" factor) There's roughly 2000 orders for the first month that technically need to be shipped by the end of that period. But If they get the first batch out the door close to their stated targets then would the guys further down the order list really ask for their money back at that point? So I'm thinking 4-10X difficulty increase (+/- 20% Hash) between Oct 2012 and Feb 2013 But what happens over the following Six months should be interesting... If you just tripled your return on your initial BFL product by being an early adopter wouldn't it make sense to buy MORE while the difficulty is low so that when things stabilize you'll have a bigger slice of the pie? I think the graph of total hash power will look surprisingly similar to the above. Spike, small dip, flatten out with easy rise. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 09, 2012, 06:49:18 AM Ok So here's what I got...
Mh/$ GPU hardware acquisition cost converted to ASICs In this scenario every one broke even on their hardware, then pocketed the profit and resold the old GPU rigs and immediately re-invested in ASICs The average Mh/$ ratio for GPU is ~1.74 The average Mh/$ ratio for ASIC used here is 46 (because I felt like it) ~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards. IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x *clearly I have not added Data for FPGAs-> ASICs *Does not include new money invested or mining profits re-invested *Does not account for GPU depreciation *Not sure how power use/efficiency affects these numbers *Data is from https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison Just a thought: Maybe the money in switching from GPUs to ASIC is in power savings? In which case ASIC designers/buyers will eventually be just as obsessed with GH/J Ratio as we all were with GPUs Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 09, 2012, 06:57:40 AM 60GH = $140/mo?
ROI 9.3 Months? Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: yrtrnc on October 09, 2012, 07:18:46 AM Hi
Here I am quoting Josh from BFL "My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far." I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know! Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 09, 2012, 07:54:10 AM Hi Here I am quoting Josh from BFL "My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far." I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know! Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information. Plus only BFL... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: benco on October 09, 2012, 08:44:26 PM ~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards. IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining.. in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them :) even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case.. b. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: yrtrnc on October 09, 2012, 09:28:01 PM The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012
And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it. Hi Here I am quoting Josh from BFL "My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far." I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know! Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information. Plus only BFL... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 10, 2012, 04:11:12 PM ~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards. IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining.. in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them :) even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case.. b. I think lots of guys are just going ahead and upgrading to the 30GH machines... Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly... Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: bitboyben on October 10, 2012, 04:12:46 PM The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012 And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it. Hi Here I am quoting Josh from BFL "My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far." I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know! Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information. Plus only BFL... Yes, I agree that it is mostly BFL. I guess the 27x is more forward looking and I should stay on my own topic. I did after all make a time frame for the poll and I don't think it will be 27x at the date indicated. Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: benco on October 10, 2012, 05:15:12 PM Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly... OK, it depend on what do you mean under 'profitable', since with this difficulty the ROI for Jalapeno is 12+ months (without electricity costs) and this applies only in case if difficulty stays at this level and will not increase.. 12 months is too much, have you any idea how fast and energy efficient ASICs will be on market at the end of 2013? after 6 months on the market Japalenos will be good only as a paperweight :) Title: Re: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 Post by: SuperTramp on October 10, 2012, 07:03:36 PM This all depends on how fast BFL ships out the current pre-orders.
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