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Title: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 05, 2015, 07:59:54 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis.
270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: redsn0w on July 05, 2015, 08:07:04 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 05, 2015, 08:08:32 PM logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 05, 2015, 08:12:12 PM logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture. Does not matter in this context. We are in green for the 5th week in a row and bitcoin has seen 16x increase in value in the past. Extrapolate and you will get the same results as I did. Btw, non-logarithmic charts lie even more. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: molecular on July 05, 2015, 08:17:15 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png I used similar logic to make an 'insane' projection in February '13 (EDIT: incidentally very close to the "we are here" hyena drew above): Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical. there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):
So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to. I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though. I clearly remember being ridiculed for putting such insanely high numbers, but I can't find the posts. Maybe deleted in shame. So I'm with you, hyena, and we'll laugh last ;) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 05, 2015, 08:17:35 PM logarithmic price charts lie to you about the real price action picture. Does not matter in this context. We are in green for the 5th week in a row and bitcoin has seen 16x increase in value in the past. Extrapolate and you will get the same results as I did. Btw, non-logarithmic charts lie even more. ok but you do realize we need more buying pressure to get to $4000 than we did to get to $1000. we're talking multiple billions more in terms of the market cap which might mean tens of millions of dollars in trades. It will happen, but in four months?? don't know about that. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: elux on July 05, 2015, 08:19:35 PM Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). I think Bitcoin ("capital B") is overdue for being repriced to something like 35-100 Billion USD. Working backwards to coin price implies around ~2500-7000 USD/BTC. Have fun with your silly linear models. ;) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Mellnik on July 05, 2015, 08:52:14 PM I suppose you bought at least 250 Bitcoin then? Because 250 BTC * $4000 = $1,000,000.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: redsn0w on July 05, 2015, 08:56:39 PM Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). I think Bitcoin ("capital B") is overdue for being repriced to something like 35-100 Billion USD. Working backwards to coin price implies around ~2500-7000 USD/BTC. Have fun with your silly linear models. ;) You said your opinion and I said my opinion, where is the problem ;D? I didn't criticize anyone ... I criticized what he said. However thanks again for your opinion and have a great day. Have fun you too with your silly linear models http://www.ilnuovociclismo.com/forum/images/smilies/asd.gif. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Lauda on July 05, 2015, 08:58:48 PM I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens.
If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one. It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. Everything is possible. I never said that they would do it, nor that they could control it. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: redsn0w on July 05, 2015, 09:00:43 PM I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens. If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one. It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Ivanhoe on July 05, 2015, 09:03:45 PM I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens. If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one. It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. The separation between church and politics happened a while ago, it now is time for the separation between politics and money. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 05, 2015, 09:06:33 PM I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens. If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one. It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. it is not impossible because they don't need to control it. In Panama, they use United States dollars and don't control it. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 05, 2015, 09:52:06 PM Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? I am seriously speculating and yes, we are in the speculation forum section, this is what we do here, all day every day. Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? It doesn't matter what the price is if you need to transfer wealth. I personally don't need to buy a single bitcoin ever again but I'm more than sure that there are people willing to pay 4k for a bitcoin. Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. WTF. Learn to use sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). And you will become yet another duck fucker, bitter for selling their bitcoins at 500$ when the price has stabilized at 5000$. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Valerian77 on July 05, 2015, 10:17:10 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png I used similar logic to make an 'insane' projection in February '13 (EDIT: incidentally very close to the "we are here" hyena drew above): Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical. there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1):
So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to. I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though. I clearly remember being ridiculed for putting such insanely high numbers, but I can't find the posts. Maybe deleted in shame. So I'm with you, hyena, and we'll laugh last ;) Just to mention this prediction from September 27, 2014: Next spike $560,000 14 months from now (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.0) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: afbitcoins on July 05, 2015, 11:13:39 PM I like the idea in opening post. Only thing I'd add is that time seems to be stretching out. The last bear correction from bubble peak took a lot longer to deflate than after previous bubbles. I can imagine next bubble peaking likewise stretched out in time.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: spiderbrain on July 05, 2015, 11:52:09 PM Sounds about right. I for one will be very happy when we break the last ATH, if only because we will get to flush out a whole bunch of whiners from this forum.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: gentlemand on July 05, 2015, 11:58:09 PM Sounds about right. I for one will be very happy when we break the last ATH, if only because we will get to flush out a whole bunch of whiners from this forum. They'll find something new to whine about. And it will bring a fresh generation of whiners who'll be ready to whine when the next lull pops along. It'll be a never ending cycle but regardless of what they get up to in future, it would be very nice to put this one to bed. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Greendragon on July 06, 2015, 12:56:06 AM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). Who wants to pay 30k for a golden 1 kg bar? I bet your mother opens her legs for 0.1g gold. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Raize on July 06, 2015, 01:22:19 AM $4k in 24 months is more believable. We won't see similar timeframes as previous jumps, even if the scale is generally the same.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: STT on July 06, 2015, 02:07:31 AM Quote It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? it is not impossible because they don't need to control it. In Panama, they use United States dollars and don't control it. Thats not the exception its the norm. People need to realise most of the world does not live in USA yet the dollar is world currency. So most people are wondering how it is you only accept things you can control, this is a luxury in monetary terms. The whole concept a country sets its own interest rates rather then the circumstances they navigate is not a good working idea Gold is not a currency controlled by government yet has been the baseline for many centuries, it was in national use in many places without any real mining source An exponential chart recognises a trend more then a linear chart can show. So so say technology growth is exponential which has been shown true, some tech companies might go grow similarly and be described best in that way. BTC could also fit such a trend if we consider its growth globally still possible Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: tyrexs on July 06, 2015, 04:06:26 AM i'm not wrong read this? 4k in 4 month
sorry i guess it will not happen, now for bitcoin back to $1000 it really hard Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: tss on July 06, 2015, 06:11:29 AM once the greece thing passes, the hype will be over and we will see where prices settle. others will take note.
every financial crisis bitcoin gets some attention. when there will be many, bitcoin will be there. in the long run (not this time) i think there will be a lot of upward resistance around the 800s. many will cash out then thinking its the top to say i told you so to others and hope to buy in again at a lower rate. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Amph on July 06, 2015, 08:05:47 AM if this is not another dead cat bounce(we are still in the range where it could be, if it go to 500 then one can consider it a non dead cat bounce) then there can be the possibility of crazy climb
i think everyone is waiting for the crazy ride, like it was with the 1200 but bigger this time, something could certainly trigger a wave like that, but it does not look like this is the case Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: xDan on July 06, 2015, 12:54:23 PM Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: AtheistAKASaneBrain on July 06, 2015, 01:12:23 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). Im surprised how such dumb posters can be hero members. Did you really spend years here posting and still not learn how you aren't forced to buy 1 entire BTC? you didn't learn how BTC could go to 1 million per coin and still function perfectly because it can be divided as small of an unit as needed? Jesus Chirst. Im not sure if it's sarcasm or not at this point, because I see so many dumb comments like these. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: randy8777 on July 06, 2015, 01:29:03 PM it's quite funny to see how a very high ranked hero member thinks the impossible will happen within a few months. if you really believe yourself then go all in right now.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: lorylore on July 06, 2015, 01:31:43 PM it's quite funny to see how a very high ranked hero member thinks the impossible will happen within a few months. if you really believe yourself then go all in right now. It's more funny to believe that the bitcoin price will reach 4000$ in 4 months ? lol Drop a bit, be real we want 300-350$ this month :) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: The Bad Guy on July 06, 2015, 01:35:40 PM not gonna happen for sure mate , there won't be any big pump on Bitcoin price unless we reach the next halving block reward or two . which will be next 2016 and the other one on 2020 or something .
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 06, 2015, 01:37:33 PM it's quite funny to see how a very high ranked hero member thinks the impossible will happen within a few months. if you really believe yourself then go all in right now. well there no fundamentals to the prediction. OP is correctly identifying the start of a bull trend, but it is not THE trend that would take us to such a high level so soon. I'd be stoked if we get back to the $500-$600 range in the next four months. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: molecular on July 06, 2015, 04:24:27 PM The separation between church and politics happened a while ago, it now is time for the separation between politics and money. I usually use "separation of state and money". But maybe your line is even better. Not sure yet. Anyway... we all know we're working on it. Let's do this! Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: molecular on July 06, 2015, 04:27:11 PM $4k in 24 months is more believable. We won't see similar timeframes as previous jumps, even if the scale is generally the same. The reward halving should do the trick to get things going. So I'm betting we will have reached this target by end of 2016. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: molecular on July 06, 2015, 04:32:58 PM not gonna happen for sure mate , there won't be any big pump on Bitcoin price unless we reach the next halving block reward or two . which will be next 2016 and the other one on 2020 or something . Be careful with those bolded words and bitcoin. I wouldn't rule it out. Depends on exactly what a "big pump" is, too. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 06, 2015, 04:43:48 PM it's quite funny to see how a very high ranked hero member thinks the impossible will happen within a few months. if you really believe yourself then go all in right now. Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012. well there no fundamentals to the prediction. OP is correctly identifying the start of a bull trend, but it is not THE trend that would take us to such a high level so soon. I'd be stoked if we get back to the $500-$600 range in the next four months. You clearly have no idea how quickly and unexpectedly things can change. not gonna happen for sure mate , there won't be any big pump on Bitcoin price unless we reach the next halving block reward or two . which will be next 2016 and the other one on 2020 or something . How is the current situation any different from 15th of October 2013 when I made this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310911.0)? No one was expecting 1200$ bitcoins. People were telling the same shit that we should wait for the next halving and what not. We have only 6 months left in 2015 and last year I saw 3 dreams:
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fs8.postimg.org%2Fc2fj1difp%2F150_dream_post.png&t=554&c=HB4Skst0rBTPoA (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812265.msg9093365#msg9093365) 2014 indeed turned out to be rather conservative in terms of price. This leaves only 6 months for the shit to hit the fan. Something big will happen this year and bitcoin will profit from it. Should we get to the ATH, 4000$ bitcoins are a rather pessimistic prediction. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 06, 2015, 04:54:03 PM well there no fundamentals to the prediction. OP is correctly identifying the start of a bull trend, but it is not THE trend that would take us to such a high level so soon. I'd be stoked if we get back to the $500-$600 range in the next four months. You clearly have no idea how quickly and unexpectedly things can change. I hope you're right and we'll see fantastic unexpected gains. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: greBit on July 06, 2015, 04:57:27 PM I highly doubt that we are going to even come close to this. However, there is a slight possibility in case that something happens. If Greece declares Bitcoin as its national currency then Bitcoin is going places. Although the odds aren't really in favor of this one. It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. It is not impossible for a nation or a government to declare bitcoin as its national currency, just because they cannot control it. Ofcourse they will have all their attempts of copying it, banning it, whatever it... but if people just keep using it and fucking adopt it, it causes an economic revolution and things just change. They have to adopt it, they won't have any options left. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jaredboice on July 06, 2015, 05:38:47 PM it's quite funny to see how a very high ranked hero member thinks the impossible will happen within a few months. if you really believe yourself then go all in right now. Regardless of what they say, I very much doubt some of the people on this form would go all in right now... since they probably already went all in at $190 :D Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: redsn0w on July 06, 2015, 06:31:09 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Are you serious? Or just another useless speculation of the price? Will you buy 1 btc for 4k dollars ? Oh sorry I forgot ... we are in the speculation forum section. //sarcasm. However, I will be happy if the price will raise to 500 dollars so I can dump al my coins XD (who wants 4k dollars per btc). Im surprised how such dumb posters can be hero members. Did you really spend years here posting and still not learn how you aren't forced to buy 1 entire BTC? you didn't learn how BTC could go to 1 million per coin and still function perfectly because it can be divided as small of an unit as needed? Jesus Chirst. Im not sure if it's sarcasm or not at this point, because I see so many dumb comments like these. Have you noticed the //sarcasm, come on guys http://img.pandawhale.com/83936-sarcasm-gif-sbwq.gif I know how bitcoin works, don't worry ;).... keep posting to get paid from the signature campaign (I'm out). Have a great day. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: tss on July 07, 2015, 04:02:35 AM I know how bitcoin works, don't worry ;).... keep posting to get paid from the signature campaign (I'm out). Have a great day. i am happy to see you are no longer participating in the signature campaigns also. care to share the reason why? Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: solid12345 on July 07, 2015, 04:18:02 AM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: molecular on July 07, 2015, 04:38:06 AM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Genesys on July 07, 2015, 04:48:04 AM I read stories like this and see potential for the economy as a whole.
Isn't that what the world's economy is driven on.. hope? Hope for a better tomorrow, a prosperous future, a guiding light? It all sounds la de da but isn't it true? Bear and bulls have no place in Greece. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Melbustus on July 07, 2015, 06:17:51 AM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Yes, which is why bitcoin's volatility (and long drawn out bear periods) are *ultimately* healthy, however painful in the short-term. The quick 10x rises and subsequent crashes lead the luckbox kids who got in without a deep understanding of where this all *could* go, to get out years too early. I'm sure you recall all the miners from 2010 and early 2011 who sold huge stashes in April-June 2011, at anywhere from 10x-1000x profit. Some of them made tens or low-hundreds of thousands of dollars in quick profit, but turns out they sacrificed millions. Bitcoin's volatility is quite efficient at weeding out those who lack the combination of real long-term vision and extremely high risk tolerance. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: gentlemand on July 07, 2015, 12:59:48 PM Yes, which is why bitcoin's volatility (and long drawn out bear periods) are *ultimately* healthy, however painful in the short-term. The quick 10x rises and subsequent crashes lead the luckbox kids who got in without a deep understanding of where this all *could* go, to get out years too early. I'm sure you recall all the miners from 2010 and early 2011 who sold huge stashes in April-June 2011, at anywhere from 10x-1000x profit. Some of them made tens or low-hundreds of thousands of dollars in quick profit, but turns out they sacrificed millions. Bitcoin's volatility is quite efficient at weeding out those who lack the combination of real long-term vision and extremely high risk tolerance. I wonder whether that cycle will change. If you were floating around back in 2011 it would still have been quite easy to believe the whole thing was going to wither so you'd grab your profits and run. These days it's becoming ever more likely that it really will go somewhere in a global context. I believe it's going to take a long time but you'd have to be pretty dumb to not realise the possible implications by now. Sure, people will still crack when instant billions don't fall into their lap, but they really shouldn't be surprised if they're left in the dust a few more years down the line in the way 2010/2011 bailers have been. At least those folks didn't have all the subsequent developments to draw perspective on. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: XMRChina on July 07, 2015, 01:05:59 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. 270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png There is no thoughtful analysis here. Cyprus alone was not the cause for the 16x gain Greece is not exactly like Cyprus If there is a rally there is no reason to assume it will be 16x Each 16x gain will be much harder than the last Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 07, 2015, 01:17:42 PM There is no thoughtful analysis here. Cyprus alone was not the cause for the 16x gain Greece is not exactly like Cyprus If there is a rally there is no reason to assume it will be 16x Each 16x gain will be much harder than the last Don't try to force your assumptions on my OP. I never said that the peak of the next bubble is 4000$. I said that we will see 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months. And obviously, Greece and Cyprus are not exactly the same, come on you smart ass, why state the obvious? Also, even if we had a thoughtful analysis, there is never any guarantee. Analysis get wrong all the time. Crystal ball predictions get right sometimes. You may die tomorrow, you have absolutely no guarantee. Your doctor may come up with an elaborate health analysis that says you will live 100 years old yet tomorrow you will die. Stop living as if you were immortal and had all the time in the world while in reality you only have now. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: gentlemand on July 07, 2015, 01:27:22 PM Each 16x gain will be much harder than the last Big gains will be harder/ non existent if the userbase remains stagnant. Right now there's probably less than a couple of million people involved, quite possibly far, far fewer. If it really did begin to gain traction and a new and larger wave of people decided it might have a place in their lives a 16x gain would happen with ease. Then you might be up to 10 million users. The next wave might bring 100 million users and you're still quite a way from fulfilling its potential. Gains would pile up until it reached a relative saturation point. At that point, perhaps 10-20 years in the future, the deflation kicks in. Result - more gains. Why is it so impossible for so many on here to think beyond the end of their next short? Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: SmoothCurves on July 07, 2015, 10:53:14 PM Each 16x gain will be much harder than the last Big gains will be harder/ non existent if the userbase remains stagnant. Right now there's probably less than a couple of million people involved, quite possibly far, far fewer. If it really did begin to gain traction and a new and larger wave of people decided it might have a place in their lives a 16x gain would happen with ease. Then you might be up to 10 million users. The next wave might bring 100 million users and you're still quite a way from fulfilling its potential. Gains would pile up until it reached a relative saturation point. At that point, perhaps 10-20 years in the future, the deflation kicks in. Result - more gains. Why is it so impossible for so many on here to think beyond the end of their next short? Once adoption reaches a threshold it will go hyper-exponential as will price Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jeffthebaker on July 07, 2015, 10:56:38 PM As much as I would love to see a price of $4000, I am skeptical of seeing even $400 any time soon.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Gyfts on July 07, 2015, 11:04:50 PM This is next to trolling, or I'm just not seeing the connection. I'm trying to comprehend this graph and don't see how this trend will result in a four thousand $+ price.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: neurotypical on July 07, 2015, 11:05:26 PM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Nothing happens because most of the people that got luck sold at 1 dollar, or 30 dollar, or 200 dollar. The people that sold at 1k where the 1% of super lucky guys. So as you can see, with Bitcoin the guy that holds wins, but no one knew what would happen. If you mined 10000 Bitcoin for nothing and it reached 1 dollar, you would have probably sold too. Redistribution of Bitcoin will happen everytime we reach a new milestone, 2k, 3k.. 10k..100.. everytime there will be people selling and other people getting the Bitcoins, and each time there will be people regretting by not holding a couple years more. It's how it works. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 07, 2015, 11:14:25 PM This is next to trolling, or I'm just not seeing the connection. I'm trying to comprehend this graph and don't see how this trend will result in a four thousand $+ price. STFU, this is not trolling in any way. If we discard the last bubble because it was rather exceptional due to the willy bot action, we see that the last time we were in green for 5 weeks in a row was exactly before the Cyprus bubble. What we have been experiencing for the past 5 weeks hasn't happened for more than 2 years. This current situation is very hot and we are on the verge of a beautiful and very bullish storm (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=917531.0). Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: tommorisonwebdesign on July 07, 2015, 11:33:16 PM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Nothing happens because most of the people that got luck sold at 1 dollar, or 30 dollar, or 200 dollar. The people that sold at 1k where the 1% of super lucky guys. So as you can see, with Bitcoin the guy that holds wins, but no one knew what would happen. If you mined 10000 Bitcoin for nothing and it reached 1 dollar, you would have probably sold too. Redistribution of Bitcoin will happen everytime we reach a new milestone, 2k, 3k.. 10k..100.. everytime there will be people selling and other people getting the Bitcoins, and each time there will be people regretting by not holding a couple years more. It's how it works. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 07, 2015, 11:35:20 PM From what I see the price may reach $4000 but probably not in 4 months. Suspect the there is definitely a possibility that the price could bubble and then colllapse agian as it did last time. I'm going to trade a lot of my bitcoins for fiat cash when that begins to happen. Nice plan but you will probably be too late. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: foxbitcoin on July 08, 2015, 12:12:15 AM I bump this thread when it hits 4000$ :)
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Brewins on July 08, 2015, 01:54:28 AM If you look at market cap increase before and after the 16x rise, and calculate the effect of such rise considering the current situation, you will not be that happy.
It is just a matter of perspective Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: lyth0s on July 08, 2015, 02:01:52 AM When user adoption kicks in 16x growth in price will be childs play. I think that once we significantly break the last ATH of about $1,100 we will almost instantly shoot up to the $3000-$4000 mark based on increasing buyers (demand) and decreased sellers (lower supply).
Like previously stated, most people can't see past this current week when it comes to investing, speculating or even their own personal finances. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: AZwarel on July 08, 2015, 02:33:02 AM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Yes, which is why bitcoin's volatility (and long drawn out bear periods) are *ultimately* healthy, however painful in the short-term. The quick 10x rises and subsequent crashes lead the luckbox kids who got in without a deep understanding of where this all *could* go, to get out years too early. I'm sure you recall all the miners from 2010 and early 2011 who sold huge stashes in April-June 2011, at anywhere from 10x-1000x profit. Some of them made tens or low-hundreds of thousands of dollars in quick profit, but turns out they sacrificed millions. Bitcoin's volatility is quite efficient at weeding out those who lack the combination of real long-term vision and extremely high risk tolerance. I agree about volatility. It is funny, people whine about volatility, while this happened in with one of the most important commodity in the last 100 years: gold vs. oil http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart (http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: prodigy8 on July 08, 2015, 09:11:38 PM In the beginning of 2013 bitcoin traded at 15$ and went up to 250$ in the following 4 months. That's 16x rise! We are currently at 270$, 5 weeks green in a row, exactly as it was before the Cyprus crisis. you are getting too optimistic here..! but I like it :)270*16 = 4320 http://s17.postimg.org/isq4s1n3j/chart.png Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 08, 2015, 09:36:19 PM you are getting too optimistic here..! but I like it :) It's sorcery. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 08, 2015, 10:10:14 PM At the end of the day, a chart is just a chart. It tells what happened. Yes, it can give you hints, yes good technical analysis can give you an edge, but a chart is certainly no magical crystal ball. Price can do whatever it wants to do and its based on supply and demand. Surely we all agree on that?
If you're talking about a 10x increase in price, there has to be a big surge in demand. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: tyrexs on July 08, 2015, 10:53:26 PM At the end of the day, a chart is just a chart. It tells what happened. Yes, it can give you hints, yes good technical analysis can give you an edge, but a chart is certainly no magical crystal ball. Price can do whatever it wants to do and its based on supply and demand. Surely we all agree on that? If you're talking about a 10x increase in price, there has to be a big surge in demand. i'm agree with you, price will go down or up, of course supply and demand will give big effect where price will go. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale on July 08, 2015, 11:49:50 PM Impossible? You clearly don't have a clue what bitcoin is capable of. BTW, I'm all in since 2012. Now there is simply no point for me to buy any more bitcoins because the bitcoins that I could buy today with my monthly salary would be just a drop in the ocean in comparison to the coins I accumulated in 2011 and 2012.[/url] This is what I find funny about the btc community, $4k btc sounds crazy yet it is nowhere near as crazy to me as the idea a couple of nerds cpu mined thousands of bitcoins for winter heating prices and turned those into $1,000 a piece. Bitcoin's market cap is tiny, tiny tiny compared to a typical fortune 500 company or a few blocks of prime real estate in a major American city, it has alot of room to grow. I fail to see how that's funny. Imagine Bitcoin really becomes a large-scale success at least in the store-of-wealth arena, largely replacing gold, tbtb unable to suppress it. What happens when a large chunk of the worlds wealth is transferred to a couple of crypto geeks and gamer kids? I don't think that's funny. It's very interesting, though. Maybe prodigious. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Amph on July 09, 2015, 09:15:15 AM At the end of the day, a chart is just a chart. It tells what happened. Yes, it can give you hints, yes good technical analysis can give you an edge, but a chart is certainly no magical crystal ball. Price can do whatever it wants to do and its based on supply and demand. Surely we all agree on that? If you're talking about a 10x increase in price, there has to be a big surge in demand. that's the reason why there are all those crazy poredictions, because of the unknown nature of the market, everyone think to have the right to predict unrealistic price, because you know, they could happen...maybe like i said in another thread what it is ridiculous is the time frame not the price itself... Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: jonald_fyookball on July 09, 2015, 09:32:43 AM OP,
please tell me when we will hit : $2000 $1000 $750 $500 thanks. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: spiderbrain on July 09, 2015, 10:31:50 AM OP, please tell me when we will hit : $2000 $1000 $750 $500 thanks. The month before is the tradition :) Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: minerpumpkin on July 09, 2015, 10:47:10 AM $4000 isn't completely impossible, actually. Although it may very well be that the bubbles get significantly smaller these days. I think Gox really was quite a factor in the past!
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 09, 2015, 11:21:12 AM OP, please tell me when we will hit : $2000 $1000 $750 $500 thanks. I don't know, but the parabolic rise should become visible after 3 weeks and then we should be at 300+ prices. After that, price may dramatically change over night. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: --Encrypted-- on July 09, 2015, 11:31:13 AM this sounds a bit too far fetched to me, I don't think the price will just jump like that for no reason. most predictions that people made that was just backed by the chart never came true anyway.
Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Hyena on July 09, 2015, 11:42:14 AM this sounds a bit too far fetched to me, I don't think the price will just jump like that for no reason. most predictions that people made that was just backed by the chart never came true anyway. Who said the predictions are backed just by the chart? That would be stupid. Price won't obviously jump without any reason but right now the reason is that the time is ripe for such a big move. In my life I have seen many bitcoin bubbles and I recognize the vibe of what's going to happen soon. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: JarvisTechnology on July 09, 2015, 06:14:37 PM We are in green for the 5th week in a row and bitcoin has seen 16x increase in value in the past.
It is impossible that a nation or government will declare bitcoin as its national currency, how they can control it? Only an anarchy can support bitcoin as currency not even a democracy. Title: Re: 4000$ bitcoins in 4 months Post by: Wilhelm on July 09, 2015, 06:22:34 PM If the upper bollingerband on the weekly logarithmic chart hits (and sustains) we will be in for a M00N phase.
$4000 is high but I would not be surprised to see it peak as high as that. Le't look back in 4 months :) |
