Bitcoin Forum

Hello Everyone , It's just discussion !!

DO NOT THINK I HAVE ALL THAT  ;D

if someone enter to gamble on roulette with chance of 50% to win red/black

and assume started with 0.00005 BTC (5000 satoshi) with automatic betting , every 1 second 1 bet

to lose all he got (and here is 52.4288 for example) , with Martingale technique he got 20 chance to win 50% for each

And in case win ,, he is going to cash them in separate wallet ,, So Max effort can bet is 52.4288 BTC  

What do you think , could he win or lose everything ? !  ::)

in case of win ,, how much do you think his profit after 6 hours ?

Share Your Opinion...  :)

I never tried this, but I guess it depends on luck.  Keep in mind that roulette is usually at least 2-3% house edge for b/r because of the 0, 00, and 000.  You could make an experiment with dust, if there is a casino that takes it, so bet with 5242 satoshi and see what happens.  That would be interesting!  you would have to make a win/ lose condition.  Lose is obviously you lose your money, but maybe the win condition could be that you double your original wager.

Martingale with a 50% chance is dicey at best, but with roulette I think it will end badly.    There is a whole really long thread in this section discussing the martingale strategy, it is an interesting read (sometimes).  You should check it out.

Of course I no that 2-3 house edge ,, I meant in online gambling sites you can bet in whatever amount you like , And this is just a discussion in case of you can bet min 5K satoshi ,, thanks for your opinion bro

so you don't have any further guesses about this person ,, even if he changed his mind to bet on dice games instead of roulette ?

I see some of that threads but this is another discussion with 20 chance of 50% winning for each

thanks man for your opinion also

when you use martingale just wait martingale will give wreck in your life. better don't use that's method

There are few things that is off with your "calculations" that you forgot to take into account :

#1 If you actually has ~52BTC you wouldnt want a dust bet of 5000 satoshis. It is much better to play at a higher base bet and not to
     use martingale at all. It is proven many times that martingale could be one of the worst strategy however a variances of it could be
     used for better chance to win

#2 Roulette has an edge of ~2.7 % for single zero wheel and ~5.4 for the double zero wheel and if you actually want a 2x payout
     martingale then dice would be a better option because of its lower house edge or even BlackJack for the 1% <  house edge

#3 The probability to get over 20x loss streak is not actually "rare" is most cases it will happens at 0.00011637 %  chance . Number is
     actually close to zero however this happens quite a lot

References : http://dicesites.com/tools

Dont spread lies, martingale is not proven to be one of the worst strategies, such thing does not exist, all the strategies are bad, in fact martingale, doing it right can make you have a slight advantage over the others.

Take your time to read ( bolded in case you missed that out ). Also you should be aware of this that there are some "strategy" that actually able to "lower" the edge against you. Most people are not aware of this and just gamble it off "blindly" instead of "smartly".
Smart strategy including taking advantages of bonuses, giveaway and also some cashback . Most people are not aware of this and just gamble it blindly and hope the goddess of luck struck them some profit .

As for the "doing it right" words, thats merely not true because most people use bot to start a martingale sequences and there is nothing about "doing it right" because once you start the bot it will be based on your luck and nothing about "doing it right" because you are not manually doing it

Here is an 81 pages about martingale , mostly repeated answer and even read some of your post that you actually despise martingale https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.0

Yep, doing it right would make you have better chances to win:



"True. But it's better still to play a single martingale sequence than to make a single bet.

Instead of betting 2 units at 1.5x (66%) to get to 3 units, with a chance of success of 66%, try betting root(3)-1 units with a multiplier of (3 + root(3))/2, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same multiplier. If either bet wins, you'll have 3 units. Your chance of success is 66.1768%, which is higher.

The single martingale sequence has a lower expected risk, and so has a lower expected loss."

Quoted from dooglus, as you can see if you know how to do it you can have a slight advantage as i said in my previous post but it's a really small advantage

you gotta think about it..on average you shouldnt be able to double your start of bitcoins so with those odds you would bust on ~ 40 btc profit you will get 20streaked just a mather of time...but you can try your luck=P

The thing is that if he wants to try his luck he could use the method i mentioned instead of having to bet millions of times which would take waayy to long and it even has lower odds, so why not save time and have a slight advantage?

Martiangle will kill you lol :P
if you had 24 lose streak u will die xP
its all about luck

GoodLuck!

IMHO outside bets are the worst on the table (even/old black/red). Although, I've had decent luck betting 1st/2nd/3rd martingaling 1 out of 3. The payoff is good but it can/will eventually bust or max the table limit.

My favorite way to play live european roulette (never RNG or american) is to bet a specific portion of the wheel. Anywhere from 5 numbers to 1/2 the wheel. Which numbers or rather portion of the wheel to place is based on the dealer and how he or she spins.

the most case I would do the martingale would be betting on 10 numbers over 12 or a single dozen, way more reliable than the 49% winning chance.

Thanks everyone for your opinions  ;)

By the way I turned 0.05 btc to 0.1 twice ,, So at the end everything is by chance

But this could be one of the best strategies to win

It's far to get 20 strike loses I guess for person in my example

Anyway ,, thanks to everyone again ,, waiting for more opinions...

I tried to use martingale several times, and I saw some people used this method. At first you win and think you are the king of the world.
BUT...
At last, I lost and everyone that i saw- lost.
It tempting, but not worth it.

It is not worth it to risk so much btc to win a small amount.
In the event you lose many times, you would have lost all your capital.

Martingale is always a losing prospect over the long run.

It looks attractive because you can go for long periods without a loss, but when you do lose (i.e. get to the end of your back roll or hit the betting limit) you lose BIG, and eventually it will more than cancel out any gains you've made. There's a reason casinos don't ban players using this system - in fact they like these players, because more often than not they're going to take ALL your money!

Well in your set up (a total of 21600 bets, 50% chance to lose a bet, 20 loses in a row to get busted), the chance to encounter a long enough red streak in the session is 1.0238427% according to my calculation, so it is statistically unlikely to happen.
But, in real roulette, the chance to lose your bet would be 51.35% (single zero) or 52.63% (double zero), so the chance to get busted would be much higher.

take note that all strategies are bound to lose in the long run, it isn't just martingale if it isn't then there would be no gambling site running today.

agree, Hit And Run is nice strategies for gambling :D

I never saw 20 losses, but when I have pilot mode on for dadice, it is not unusual to see 5-10 losses in a row.  Doesn't happen all the time, but it does happen.  And afaik they are a good site who does not fudge the odds to screw you over.  Again using pilot mode the numbers after seveal hours of play are very very close to the stated %, so I think that they are legit.  Because you can bet on that site with just 1 satoshi on pilot, it would be a good place to test your luck and see how many wins/losses in a row you can get.  Also you can change the win/payout to as high as 98% win chance, an interesting feature.

ONLY MATH

So, if you are playing Roulette (just one zero) you have this odds each spin:

WIN  18/37  = 0,4864864...
LOSE 19/37 = 0,5135135...

In 6 hours, playing 1 spin at second... you can made 6*60*60 = 21.600 spins

You BUST if you lose for 20 spins in a row,  and this happen:

p = (19/37)^20 = 0,00000162568926

1/p = 615.123,702941043

If doesn't happen.... after 6 hours you can win around ( 21.600 * 0,00005 * 18/37 ) = 0,5254054...

i don't think it's a good idea lose 52 BTC to try to win only 0,52... is better make a donation :)

17BGit8h31Rv6mVQJ2gekwFUFfKiZbNYei  :D

Of course you're right, but martingale is particularly bad as it is likely to lead to catastrophic losses in the long run - rather than quitting when you're on a losing streak, the strategy actually dictates that you chase your losses until you can't any more. Of course you could try card counting with live dealer blackjack, though you're probably gonna have to wait a very long time to get a significantly favourable count with the 8-deck shoes that most (all?) sites use.

20 loss on 50% It is more ' common than you might think, at least in the dice  it is so, but i think it's the same for roulette on black/red.
luck is blind but bad luck sees double

it's -EV mate , but using a big bankroll may help to reduce the chance of the losing streak
it's all about the chances , if you are lucky you may win and survive but nothing is totally working
also if you will bet X2 on roulette then I would say that Dice is better , Dice has lower house edge comparing it with roulette

There is a long topic about martingale, you should check it. Anyway I think it's a bad idea. You do have a big bank, and a 20 streak is a rare event (like 38% after a 1M rolls), but the main problem is that you will just not be allowed to double every single time because of the betting limits. A casino always have a limit that will force you to not be able to double after a not so rare event like 15 streaks etc. After that you will be with a big loss that will almost be impossible to recover because eventually you will face another loss with the bet limit etc etc