Bitcoin Forum

Here is how a trader achives status as a god-like entity that everybody listens to and want to be near:


Start with 1000 traders fresh from school. Half guess that Apple goes up, the others down. First half wins.

Now the 500 successful traders belive yen goes up, the others down. Half of them win.

250 traders speculate that oil is goin up. The others down. Half of them wins.

Of the 125 traders that won all previous rounds, guess that share X goes down, the others up, half win. Now I have the problem with half persons, I should really have started with a round number like 1024. Anyway, after 10 rounds, there is one winner left. He is now a Jesus or a Mother Mary, probably half believing himself he is, half knowing that he just guessed.

The losers, especially those who lost in round one, serve at macdonalds dressed in synthetic fabric.

Now a million so called retail investors flock around the Jesus, trusting their savings, and gladly allow him to shave off a small percentage from each of them. That is the real success..

So true...

You only hear about the Warren Buffets and Donald Trumps.
You don't hear about the losers who did the same but failed and live in the storm drains.

You always hear the guy winning the lottery.
You never hear the millions that lose regularly.

Statistically, sure there will be individuals with the worst luck (google multiple lightening strikes or most unlucky). But when it comes to achievement, unless you are restricted by your country- NK for example, you can fail and fail, but you are likely to at least be moderately successful.

A very interesting read. I've seen it in various movies where people whoa re good with math and numbers can always calculate and crunch digits in their mind in a couple of seconds and sum out who'd make more revenue and invest in that. Either you should be really good with numbers and predictions, and with such a skill, having a lucky hand is always an advantage.

good observation, haha. People tend to underestimate the effects of variance on results by orders of magnitude.

There is another archetype: The sheep flock leader. Someone has got into the position of being rich, intellighent, known. He buys some stock, tells the  media what he did, a thousand people follow, driving the price up, sells, the thousand people follow.

Two points to note: To get into such a position, you could have been lucky, but also knowledgable. It is necessary to draw attention: Talking a lot at the general meetings, comment on everything, calling some famous people stupid sometimes, gross, visible consumption, strange haircut or dress habits. The other point is that the thousands try to act before him, so he constantly has to move quicker.

Needs skill or luck to get there, after that, it seems too easy.