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A billionaire decides to waste some money and creates a provably fair EV+ casino.
Don't liken this to investing in the house of a dice site, as you don't have as much security as you get, with the maximum winnnings and that sort of things.
How much would you gamble in this hypothetical EV+ casino?

well i had a run in with something along those lines not too long ago with a certain casino and its rude owners with questionable intelligence, but had i chosen to exploit their error, i wouldve invested a lot (i really mean a lot) of bankroll into making the most of the +EV opportunity, as i would in this hypothetical situation you presented. id say in the ballpark of 80% of whatever coin i may be holding at the time would go into making use of that +EV.

Hmm, my luck at gambling is such, that I would likely lose all my bankroll before being able to take advantage of the positive player edge. :D

But subSTRATA is right, of course: this would be an ideal opportunity to take advantage of the +EV, for however long the casino manages to last.

LOL, there is not silly billionaire at all, this discussion is so funny, I will gamble as much as I can, cause +EV is good for players, I can profit in the long term, so just allin.  ;D

I would make many small bets,as in the long term I would have to have profit

In this scenario that would never happen in real life you just follow the standard BR management, making sure that your chances of going broke are 0%, and make a boring job with consistant profit out of it.

Depends, +EV is overrated. Like for instance if game required me to bet $1 to have a 1 in a billion chance of winning 2 billion dollars, it would be insanely +EV, but I still wouldn't do more than a few bets.

I always love this kind of question, well even in the fairest casino i wouldn't gamble cause there is always statistic that works against you no matter what you do.

It is called House edge a positive expected value for owner which in this case would be negative for house.There's no way for a house to win if we have +EV for us.Unless you make very few large bets.In that case everything can happen but if you place a lot of small bets periodically you will be in profit over time.

Depends on a lot of things specially how much +EV it is. Obviously since its +EV means you will win more than the house, so flat betting a lot based on your bankroll will likely be the best way to go . I would flat bet 0.001 BTC if I had a bankroll of 1 BTC continously .

Alright.
Explain your standard bankroll management.

It's a casino with a 1% edge towards you, that any bet will on average get 101% of the value.
You can choose any odds, and you will get a favoured bet.
If you choose 50% odds, you'll win 2.02 units if you bet 1 unit.

There is no foolproof method, gambling always has a risk, but I'd like to see you try to explain.

Well the best way to go would be to use the kelly system but i really dont understand the point of this thread and im pretty sure it should go to off-topic and not the gamble section since its a pretty stupid post.

Ahh, I just read about it, sorry for my lack of knowledge.
I was attempting to figure out whether dice sites having EV- actually makes much of a difference to the average player, and whether the average player would change their betting strategy and quantity with EV+

Basically using the kelly formula would be using the optimal strategy but in the end the casino would lose even if the players dont use it and just bet with any other "strategy" its pretty much what happens with -EV casinos, they always win in the end no matter what players do

It depends on the way gamblers would play . Even if the house edge was 0 , and if people used martingale then even then it is very possible for them to bust and lose their money. Majority of the gamlers use the same strategy so it definitely is likely the house would still profit. For no house edge I dont think strategy would change much , but if its negative house edge or +EV for gamblers, then the gambler would likely flat bet and cause the house to lose.

If the casino has such fall, great are the chances it will scam. The +EV came from low odds, so no surprise if you never do a hit.



And I my investment in a honest +EV casino would depend of the variance of the outcome. If too big I would be scared to put more than play money on it

I think my chances of winning the lottery are better than finding such a casino.

If I offered you the following bet, would you take it?

The game has 1,000 rounds. Each round there is a 50 % probability of outcome 1 and 50 % probability of outcome 2. If outcome 1 happens, you receive a 40 % return that round. If outcome 2 happens, your return is -30 % that round. The rounds are compounded so the return in a given round is always on the accumulated capital.

Can I know what +EV is? Thanks  :D.

Yes, depending on the size of your bankroll and the amount of +EV, the "Risk of Ruin" can be shockingly high even when you have an actual advantage.

Positive Expected Value.  Almost all gambling games have a negative EV so the house can pay its expenses and earn a profit.

To answer the OP - assuming they did it intentionally, e.g. they figured they would make it up on advertising or something, I would play a lot.  After all, gambling is fun, and the only reason I don't do more of it is that it is also expensive, due to the negative EV.  So maybe if the EV was very very small, the casino would get a lot of action.

With a 1% +EV, a bankroll of about 200 times your maximum bet gives a very low chance of losing long term. ~source = 'long-term memory'

well, of course, you are gambling after all, but with BRM the player should come out ahead in the long run (1 million+ bets).

if it really is an +EV casino and if becomes apparent for me that i am going to win i would deposit a medium amount in there to start winning.
and by medium i mean something that makes a reasonable amount in profit but not that high that i feel nervous about betting it there.

I would gamble 21 million btc if I could
Just make very small bets, enough so that a losing streak wouldn't bankrupt you, and just infinitely go on autobet on 50%.
Eventually, after winstreak or losestreak even out, you will be average at the positive house edge, and keep increasing as you go.
Of course unless your me, who will even lose money with a positive house edge :P

I would bet only enough to make me live good,aka until I have 1,million dollar worth of btc.

Have you not read anything in this thread? I already told you guys that the best strategy for a +EV casino would be to use the kelly system not flat betting, of course the casino would still lose in the long term no matter what strategy is being used but its better to use kelly

I still won't really gamble much even if a casino is really provably fair EV+.
There is still house edge which will make you lose in the long run.

EV should be calculated after you consider everything like the house edge, bonus, rakeback, jackpot, etc.
So if playing a game actually gives you positive EV, you should really be winning in the long run with a good bankroll management.

But as illustrated in Ryan's example in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1127970.msg11916934#msg11916934, it may not be possible for you to run the game for long enough sometimes.

there is actually a formula for this kind of thing. It's called a kelly criterion. It depends on the likelihood of winning, the EV, and your bankroll. You should probably check it out on wikipedia.

It's still gambling so you may lose, however if you have a large bankroll, profit can be made in the long-run if you play it smart.

That's why you follow kelly criterion to decide how much to bet based on your bankroll.


However, if allowed, betting 1 satoshi a large number of times is probably the safest way to gain a profit.

I would spend my life playing this game when it's +EV and simple
poker has +EV but you need to be good and to make good decisions in order to win , but if we are talking about +EV virtual casino game I think this won't need any skills and it would be a cash machine  ;D

I think I would have not spent more than I have because it is not all related to chances and more related to know how play