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Title: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 19, 2015, 12:08:28 PM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option.
We're now going on 21 years. http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/ "Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years." Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: criptix on July 19, 2015, 01:25:47 PM U should read this:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad. they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data. One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page: Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies." *edit Someone should twitter the guy my post :) Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 19, 2015, 02:27:28 PM U should read this: I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling. Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site. It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets. The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad. they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data. One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page: Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies." *edit Someone should twitter the guy my post :) Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level. Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc. But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: criptix on July 19, 2015, 03:52:35 PM U should read this: I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling. Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site. It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets. The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad. they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data. One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page: Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies." *edit Someone should twitter the guy my post :) Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level. Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc. But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged. Im not sure but if look at this graphic with the updated parameters: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png There is an increase till 2010 ( it only goes so far) Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Beliathon on July 19, 2015, 03:54:37 PM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-pseudoscience/ http://pactiss.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Asimov.jpg http://h.fastcompany.net/multisite_files/coexist/imagecache/slideshow_large/slideshow/2013/05/1682120-slide-bilicki.jpg Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Lauda on July 19, 2015, 05:22:52 PM Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it?
The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor. This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible. The weather is becoming more extreme. (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Sourgummies on July 19, 2015, 06:10:22 PM Could be humans are meant to destroy planets and are brought in to achieve this goal. Why get in the way of a natural course of destruction.
If we do turn this planet into a soup,earth will fix it once it wipes us clean off it. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 19, 2015, 06:18:31 PM Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it? The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor. This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible. The weather is becoming more extreme. (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 19, 2015, 06:32:44 PM U should read this: I'm going to answer this in a way that does not prejudice the polling. Skepsci is in error or perhaps you misread what Cook argued on his site. It is correct that slight orbital decays caused several adjustments in the satellite data sets. The current tabulation of 21 years without warming is after these corrections.https://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm The article you cited is bad - or rather the background research is bad. they cited an paper from the early 90's which used wrong methods to calculate the temperature from satellite data. One of the authors john christie worked on a new paper in 2006 and this is on the first page: Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming... This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies." *edit Someone should twitter the guy my post :) Thus, there is a dataset - the satellite data set - which shows as I indicated no warming in 21 years to any statistically significant level. Arguments to the contrary might be that other data contradicts that, etc. But there is no problem with the 21 year data set as you alleged. Im not sure but if look at this graphic with the updated parameters: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Satellite_Temperatures.png There is an increase till 2010 ( it only goes so far) Again, I'm going to be careful what and how I say things because I really don't care to influence the results. Wikipedia has a what looks like a decent discussion on this. The phrase "hiatus" is prejudicial. We have a "hiatus" when it stops warming. But do we have a "hiatus" when it stops cooling? Nope. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: popcorn1 on July 19, 2015, 06:46:50 PM Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it? The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor. This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible. The weather is becoming more extreme. (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure.. if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved ;) ;) Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Sourgummies on July 19, 2015, 07:03:16 PM I leave this thread and right to infowars and bam!
http://www.infowars.com/we-are-in-21st-year-of-declining-temperatures/ Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 19, 2015, 07:19:07 PM Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it? The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor. This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible. The weather is becoming more extreme. (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure.. if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved ;) ;) I mean what about plastic surgeons, dude? Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoadTrain on July 19, 2015, 07:30:17 PM Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years.
PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: ummina on July 19, 2015, 07:42:38 PM i believe it. just now we can to feel the temperature very high.
ozon begin in hollow.. ice in north pole has melt. we can feel with the sea sustain upgrade. i think have many human know it. the climate not balanced again like before. if hot, its very hoty, and if cold, its very cloudly right.. very very not stablelity. and sun shine very hot. i can very very feel this. earth have change in tis condition. :( Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: popcorn1 on July 19, 2015, 07:51:54 PM Well I could tell you this from personal experience, I don't even need data to confirm it. That leads me to the question, why are some people denying it? The warmer the water at surface is, the more vapor there is going to be and the increase in air temperature raises the air's capacity to hold that vapor. This leads to heavier rains/storms/snows which some areas clearly have. On the land, the same increase makes dry places drier. I remember the weather 5,10,15 years back and it wasn't this horrible. The weather is becoming more extreme. (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather) I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. i am more worried about plastic every where dumping in the sea dumping in land fills..but not to sure about planet heating up .. but mans affect on the earth is bad for the planet thats for sure.. if only we had free clean energy the planet would be saved ;) ;) I mean what about plastic surgeons, dude? Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: darkangel11 on July 19, 2015, 08:36:23 PM Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years. PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course. I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoadTrain on July 19, 2015, 09:30:54 PM Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years. PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course. I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 20, 2015, 12:10:19 AM Well in my place there's been no 'normal' winter in the last 10 years maybe. In the early 2000s I still remember how it snowed, and the temperature got under -20C. I miss those years. PS. I also remember how hot is was in Russia in 2010. It was hell with asphalt roads melting under wheels. Though it was an extreme event, of course. I feel the same. There has been a shift of seasons. 20 years ago it was quite warm in September, you could run in shorts and you could see the beginning of a beautiful golden Autumn. The winters were very cold and snowy and lasted up to March. Now in September it already gets cold and rainy and continues in December. The temperatures in Winter rarely go below -5*C and it's shitty and rainy up till May. The Summers are very short and hot. We have maybe 2 months of good weather and then storms that turn to cold rains as weeks go by. I live in EU in case you wonder. I wonder whether this might be a decadal cycle, such as the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). I'm not personally familiar with weather in Europe, let alone it's long term trends. In other words, is it a planetary effect, or a regional one? Certainly in areas known to be subject to such periodic changes, not mentioning such a thing when a government or scientific body or political organization discusses causes of "climate change" would be lying by omission. Is this happening? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation#Climate_impacts_worldwide The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.[4] Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO, more rainfall.[8] Climate models suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over India and Sahel and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.[9] Paleoclimatologic studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.[10] Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: jaysabi on July 20, 2015, 03:05:24 AM Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context.
Quote from: Me, in the other thread Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes. Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere. So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence. Quote from: Spendulus, in the other thread So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings? Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Possum577 on July 20, 2015, 06:22:04 AM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option. We're now going on 21 years. http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/ "Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years." Give us a reputable source and we may believe you. The Daily Caller is political propaganda. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: saddampbuh on July 20, 2015, 07:03:30 AM man made global warming is a hoax
if you believe it is not a hoax but do not support nuking india and china you need to shut the fuck up about it because that would be the only way to stop it Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: n2004al on July 20, 2015, 07:27:29 AM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option. We're now going on 21 years. http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/ "Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years." The satellite must be broken. Here where I live every year is getting hotter and hotter. I remember that not to many years (and before) ago the thermometer never arrived at 38 grades Celsius. This summer (these days) the temperatures are 40 grades Celsius. And we have august after. I remember the time of my youth. The 36 grades Celsius were considered a very high temperature here. Now its almost normal to have this temperature during the summer. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoadTrain on July 20, 2015, 07:37:52 AM Quote from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201505 The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This ties with February 1998 as the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Lauda on July 20, 2015, 10:14:16 AM I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. Well I have read about the potential global warming hoax, and did some research to find out more. If I combine my findings with personal experience I would say that it is not a hoax. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. Yes, we could say that I'm claiming just that. I was just trying to describe what happens once water surface temperature and air temperature becomes hotter. I remember maybe 10 years ago, even on the hottest days one could go outside for a while. However, now with 40+ Celsius there is no just way. Also I can feel the sun burn heavily on the skin (even when the temperature is lower, which suggests Ozone depletion). Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Ingatqhvq on July 20, 2015, 10:38:51 AM It's a bit hot than ten years ago. but not too much.
Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: okae on July 20, 2015, 11:01:13 AM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option. We're now going on 21 years. http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/ "Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years." uncertain, and more if the news come from than source thay i didnt beleive ;) btw to tell you the truth we, the humans, are just like a breath of air in this big universe that we will never understand, mother earth is more than our small thoughts, we are nothing to understand how things are going on with it, what about if the earth is just trying to regule himselft? and we cant understand it? in the other side, yes, we are like a bad plague for this world, but enought to damage it?, maybe yes... Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 20, 2015, 11:24:54 AM Yes or no? I am continuing the same question as in the other thread but have used the "poll" option. We're now going on 21 years. http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming/ "Satellite data show no global warming for 21 years." Give us a reputable source and we may believe you. The Daily Caller is political propaganda. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 20, 2015, 11:41:46 AM I got to admit it sure seems hotter than ever before here. Well I have read about the potential global warming hoax, and did some research to find out more. If I combine my findings with personal experience I would say that it is not a hoax. But it's always like that in summer in Texas. (LOL...) So are you claiming that the relative humidity has increased? Sounds that way. I can't recall offhand if the hydrological cycle has long term cycles, except regionally. Certainly that's the case like in the US Pacific Northwest, 60-80 year climate cycle influenced by the ocean's Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Not well understood by a lot of people, I guess. Yes, we could say that I'm claiming just that. I was just trying to describe what happens once water surface temperature and air temperature becomes hotter. I remember maybe 10 years ago, even on the hottest days one could go outside for a while. However, now with 40+ Celsius there is no just way. Also I can feel the sun burn heavily on the skin (even when the temperature is lower, which suggests Ozone depletion). http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/08/20/declining-relative-humidity-is-defying-global-warming-models/ Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 20, 2015, 11:44:47 AM Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context. That is the way I phrased the question. "Here is one data set" vs personal beliefs, other data, whatever.Quote from: Me, in the other thread Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes. Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere. So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence. Quote from: Spendulus, in the other thread So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings? Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: jaysabi on July 21, 2015, 12:44:03 AM Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context. That is the way I phrased the question. "Here is one data set" vs personal beliefs, other data, whatever.Quote from: Me, in the other thread Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes. Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere. So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence. Quote from: Spendulus, in the other thread So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings? Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming. One other thing I noticed in the findings is that they use the phrase 'no statistically significant warming' or something to that effect. That leaves open the possibility that they observed some warming but that the statistical model they're using has caused them to conclude it falls within a negligible range. It's another area for inaccuracy or inference of data to arise. I wonder how small a change has to be or how large it can be to be "statistically insignificant." Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 21, 2015, 01:27:07 AM Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context. That is the way I phrased the question. "Here is one data set" vs personal beliefs, other data, whatever.Quote from: Me, in the other thread Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes. Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere. So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence. Quote from: Spendulus, in the other thread So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings? Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming. One other thing I noticed in the findings is that they use the phrase 'no statistically significant warming' or something to that effect. That leaves open the possibility that they observed some warming but that the statistical model they're using has caused them to conclude it falls within a negligible range. It's another area for inaccuracy or inference of data to arise. I wonder how small a change has to be or how large it can be to be "statistically insignificant." Um, I would have to say "don't be concerned about that." Because all measured datasets have bounds of error, so stating the statistical significance really is the only way to do it. But another way to look at it is simply, yeah, how is this done? Motl explains it here. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/26/no-statistically-significant-warming-since-1995-a-quick-mathematical-proof/ That's first semester statistics, applied to the satellite data - in 2009.... This goes into exhaustive detail... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/10/has-global-warming-stalled/ Dr. Judith Curry has a solid reputation as never backing down from where ever the scientific facts lead her. http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/overestimated-global-warming-over-the-past-20-years/ Short story, I'm comfortable with the phrasing as used in the poll question. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoomBot on July 21, 2015, 01:40:11 AM Yes.
Some of it is human-made, some due to natural warming, IMO. also: The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2012 was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This is the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880. The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for June 2012 was the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.30°C (2.34°F) above average. The globally-averaged land surface temperature for June 2012 was also the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.07°C (1.93°F) above average. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during June 2012 as sea surface temperature anomalies continued to rise. The June worldwide ocean surface temperatures ranked as the 10th warmest June on record. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–June 2012 was the 11th warmest on record, at 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20th century average. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201206 Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: jaysabi on July 21, 2015, 02:10:12 AM Other thread got locked before I could respond. Responding here to input my thoughts on the topic. Quoting other thread for context. That is the way I phrased the question. "Here is one data set" vs personal beliefs, other data, whatever.Quote from: Me, in the other thread Quote from: jaysabi on July 17, 2015, 07:35:17 PM When you have 38 straight years of higher-than-average temperatures, and 9 of the 10 hottest years in the last 135 years coming in the last 14, I find global warming credible. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/01/16/377712745/its-official-2014-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-noaa-says Interestingly, the claim that temperatures are not warming do not come from actual measurements of the temperature, but inference of the temperature based on other measured criteria, and the model used to analyze the temperature has been particularly prone to being inaccurate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset It seems any evidence countering the scientific consensus stems from efforts to selectively frame how to measure temperature, or in this case, using a known unreliable method. Whereas we have ground based measurements showing rising temperatures, the method of measurement used in this study is one of inference. Satellites cannot measure temperatures, they have to infer them based measuring radiance wavelengths and inferring the temperature associated with the measurements. On top of that, the instruments are subject to inaccuracies due to decay. When these errors are corrected, the "evidence" vanishes. Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset#Comparison_with_other_data_and_models For some time, the UAH satellite data's chief significance was that they appeared to contradict a wide range of surface temperature data measurements and analyses showing warming. In 1998 the UAH data showed a cooling of 0.05 K per decade (at 3.5 km - mid to low troposphere). Wentz & Schabel at RSS in their 1998 paper showed this (along with other discrepancies) was due to the orbital decay of the NOAA satellites.[6] Once the orbital changes had been allowed for the data showed a 0.07 K per decade increase in temperature at this level of the atmosphere. So the short answer is no, I don't accept this non-evidence. Quote from: Spendulus, in the other thread So the arguments for "NO" are (1) proxy vs direct temperature readings and (2) 1998 corrections to the orbital instrument readings? Basically, yes. Satellites infer temperature based on measurements of radiance wavelengths and then use an algorithm to calculate temperature. When you plot along all the points inaccuracies can arise (degrading equipment on satellites, correct association between wavelength radiance and temperature (inference accuracy), and quality/accuracy of algorithm to compute inferred temperature), taking ground-based measurements seems far more reliable. Couple this study's outlier data with all the ground-based measurements we have showing rising temperatures, and photographic satellite evidence of shrinking/retreating ice cover in the polar caps, and the evidence seems to support the conclusion the Earth is warming. One other thing I noticed in the findings is that they use the phrase 'no statistically significant warming' or something to that effect. That leaves open the possibility that they observed some warming but that the statistical model they're using has caused them to conclude it falls within a negligible range. It's another area for inaccuracy or inference of data to arise. I wonder how small a change has to be or how large it can be to be "statistically insignificant." Um, I would have to say "don't be concerned about that." Because all measured datasets have bounds of error, so stating the statistical significance really is the only way to do it. But another way to look at it is simply, yeah, how is this done? Motl explains it here. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/26/no-statistically-significant-warming-since-1995-a-quick-mathematical-proof/ That's first semester statistics, applied to the satellite data - in 2009.... This goes into exhaustive detail... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/10/has-global-warming-stalled/ Dr. Judith Curry has a solid reputation as never backing down from where ever the scientific facts lead her. http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/28/overestimated-global-warming-over-the-past-20-years/ Short story, I'm comfortable with the phrasing as used in the poll question. Fair enough. The first link answered my question well. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 21, 2015, 02:10:44 AM Yes. Can I correctly paraphrase this as "I'll believe the land numbers, not the satellite numbers?"Some of it is human-made, some due to natural warming, IMO. also: The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2012 was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This is the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880. The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for June 2012 was the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.30°C (2.34°F) above average. The globally-averaged land surface temperature for June 2012 was also the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.07°C (1.93°F) above average. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during June 2012 as sea surface temperature anomalies continued to rise. The June worldwide ocean surface temperatures ranked as the 10th warmest June on record. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–June 2012 was the 11th warmest on record, at 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20th century average. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201206 Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoomBot on July 21, 2015, 02:38:54 AM Yep, as voted.
Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: jaysabi on July 21, 2015, 03:09:47 AM Yes. Can I correctly paraphrase this as "I'll believe the land numbers, not the satellite numbers?"Some of it is human-made, some due to natural warming, IMO. also: The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2012 was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F). This is the fourth warmest June since records began in 1880. The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for June 2012 was the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.30°C (2.34°F) above average. The globally-averaged land surface temperature for June 2012 was also the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.07°C (1.93°F) above average. ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during June 2012 as sea surface temperature anomalies continued to rise. The June worldwide ocean surface temperatures ranked as the 10th warmest June on record. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–June 2012 was the 11th warmest on record, at 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20th century average. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201206 Yes, but only with the understanding that it's not simply choosing which data set to believe. The accuracy and reliability associated with each method informs which one I find more credible. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: RoadTrain on July 21, 2015, 04:05:36 PM Another report from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506
Quote The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.]The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 21, 2015, 04:31:21 PM Another report from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506 Quote The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.]The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average. Please clarify. The question is not being argued, the poll is being answered. Relative to the poll question this means....???? Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: BADecker on July 21, 2015, 06:22:03 PM From https://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/180209-2015-07-21-satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-22nd-year-without-global.htm.
----------Quote Here is the summary: After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 22nd year without a statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data. Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville's satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there's been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 22 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth's atmosphere. Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged "hiatus" in global warming. ----------End Quote :) Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 21, 2015, 07:36:59 PM From https://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/180209-2015-07-21-satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-22nd-year-without-global.htm. ----------Quote Here is the summary: After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 22nd year without a statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data. Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville's satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there's been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 22 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth's atmosphere. Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged "hiatus" in global warming. ----------End Quote :) Yes, this is the question of the poll. On the one hand, you have satellite sensors which show no warming. On the other hand, you have land based sensors which do appear to show warming. LOL...I find it rather interesting. It's a scientific controversy really. But answers can and will be based on personal experience, other evidence, political beliefs, etc. Answer anyway you feel is correct. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: galbros on July 21, 2015, 11:58:29 PM The fact that global warming is occurring is not really disputed. The issue is how much are man made causes contributing to that warming and is it worth the cost to alter those causes.
Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 21, 2015, 11:59:36 PM The fact that global warming is occurring is not really disputed. The issue is how much are man made causes contributing to that warming and is it worth the cost to alter those causes. Good point. The poll question does not address causation, man made or natural. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: jaysabi on July 23, 2015, 02:19:46 PM From https://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/180209-2015-07-21-satellites-earth-is-nearly-in-its-22nd-year-without-global.htm. ----------Quote Here is the summary: After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 22nd year without a statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data. Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville's satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there's been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 22 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth's atmosphere. Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged "hiatus" in global warming. ----------End Quote :) Yes, this is the question of the poll. On the one hand, you have satellite sensors which show no warming. On the other hand, you have land based sensors which do appear to show warming. LOL...I find it rather interesting. It's a scientific controversy really. But answers can and will be based on personal experience, other evidence, political beliefs, etc. Answer anyway you feel is correct. I find personal anecdotes to be unconvincing ('when I was little, it was never this hot,' etc.). These offer no real value because of how unreliable the information is. Memory is notoriously faulty, not to mention perception bias, confirmation bias, etc. which can alter how memories are remembered. It seems to me it's best to stick with data when making any case, and at least the satellite data is still data, even if some people take issue with its accuracy or the method in which it is gathered. Anecdotes are not data that can be quantified and measured, and offer no real value to the topic. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Lauda on July 23, 2015, 02:35:52 PM I find personal anecdotes to be unconvincing ('when I was little, it was never this hot,' etc.). These offer no real value because of how unreliable the information is. Memory is notoriously faulty, not to mention perception bias, confirmation bias, etc. which can alter how memories are remembered. It seems to me it's best to stick with data when making any case, and at least the satellite data is still data, even if some people take issue with its accuracy or the method in which it is gathered. Anecdotes are not data that can be quantified and measured, and offer no real value to the topic. I wouldn't agree with this. It can be faulty but it doesn't have to be necessarily faulty. If I ask 100 random people about weather conditions and they all have similar answers, would you say that is unreliable be cause it comes from personal experience? I can clearly recall summers and how I had to endure them through years. It is getting harder, end of story. Title: Re: POLL - Do you believe in last 2 decades it has been warming? Post by: Spendulus on July 23, 2015, 03:53:51 PM .... My point was simply that people WILL answer on any basis they feel like. I have no desire to prod them to answer "scientifically" or "ethically" or whatever. And I know for a fact it's hotter today than it's ever been.I find personal anecdotes to be unconvincing ('when I was little, it was never this hot,' etc.). These offer no real value because of how unreliable the information is. Memory is notoriously faulty, not to mention perception bias, confirmation bias, etc. which can alter how memories are remembered. It seems to me it's best to stick with data when making any case, and at least the satellite data is still data, even if some people take issue with its accuracy or the method in which it is gathered. Anecdotes are not data that can be quantified and measured, and offer no real value to the topic. (LOL...) |
