Bitcoin Forum

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27348.0

Always a good idea to revisit the past and learn from it. You can find tons of histories like that if you go back a couple of years. Imagine how much those guys regret being short-term, non-long-term visionaries. Those guys missed the point completely. They had tons of entire units on the most important network on the planet and sold them for peanuts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0mykANOMGQ

Watch this and put things into perspective.
If you aren't holding long term, you'll be the guy on that thread while the rest are holding Bitcoin valued at prices we can't really fathom right now, just like people back then couldn't fathom the implications of what the internet did to countless businesses, therefore, being able to value it properly.
If you are a doubter on Bitcoin reaching ridiculous prices (imagine how ridiculous the thought of 1000 would be back then, when people said as rational selling at 20 dollars) you'll miss on ridiculous gains of purchasing power in the future.

Whatever you do, good luck, and remember that thread. Actually print it and put it on your bedroom wall.

Nice thread bro, something I think to myself fairly often. No worries here though, I'm prepared for the moon bound, rocket launch. HODL until that day gentlemen! Don't panic sell or lose patience with bitcoin. We'll get there one day even if it's 5-10 years from now.

Cold storage - HODL my friends ;D

Good lad.

I wouldn't sell bitcoin at a loss because that just means I'm being impatient. I do save a certain portion of my income to go towards buying BTC.

it's a free market. without panic sellers not just bitcoin trading, trading trading in general will not be the same. you need every aspact of it, profit takers, panic buyers, panic sellers, holders, short term investors and so on. that keeps markets moving and ineresting to invest in.

Yea, I know a guy that CPU mined BTC and would have $2-4 million if sold at peak...he sold at $2 each.  It's not possible for the BTC price to increase without panic sellers though.  If whales can't get in at a good position, they don't move the price up.

The bulls will say buy as much as you can as soon as you can and the bears will say sell, sell, sell. I am a bull. I say buy and hold, especially now

While it could be true that long-term holding of Bitcoin is the most likely to produce "ridiculous gains in purchasing power", this will only actually occur *if a significant number of people do NOT hold and do sell some or all of their coins along the way to distribute wealth and gain market penetration.

If, Hypothetically, 90% of people keep 90% of the coins they acquire for the next few years, Im sure the price will skyrocket to huge levels, which will drive even more people to desperately try to get hold of coins so they too have some of this rapidly appreciating asset, driving the value even higher.   Actual trade would be low and the "value" would be based mainly on their rarity.

However, as soon as someone decided to *use any significant amount of "purchasing power" to buy their castle, yacht, jet or whatever,  the price would dip significantly, which would very likely trigger a lot more people to quickly jump out in the belief that a "top" of the speculative cycle had been reached   (just like what happened at ~$1200) and the price would come crashing down (again).

This cycle will repeat over and over again, until either 1.  Coins are distributed widely enough (and *in use, not just Held) that the boom/bust cycle dampens out and the oscillations decrease over time (which is what I think is happening).  or 2.  The Majority get sick of being Millionaires one week and Paupers the next, and give up on Bitcoin and return to a more stable, elastic form of money.

This is one of the reasons why the central bankers claim to require the ability to print money on demand.  An "Elastic" money supply allows them to dampen out any crazy speculative value swings, by increasing the supply temporarily, and decreasing it when demand is lower.   Unfortunately, such control is also vulnerable to abuse by those who control the printing presses, and has proven time and time again to be of short-term benefit, and long-term detriment to all prior forms of fiat currency.

Many people have questioned whether an Elastic money supply is actually a good thing, despite its short term benefits.  If the "Smart Economists " who claim to have models and theories justifying Fiat money are correct, then why do their models keep failing, and we have recessions, depressions, and booms/busts, even *with all of their "Financial/Economic Tools" to manipulate the supply ?   https://www.google.com.au/search?q=elastic+money+supply

Bitcoin is an modern internet-enabled experiment with an *inelastic money supply, and the initial wild value swings were easily predicted and expected by anyone who understands the attributes of such a form of money.   The hope is, that the oscillations will dampen out over time and it reaches a more stable *long-term value (although it will likely never be as short-term stable as fiat currencies are) which will make it seriously useful to those who are willing to ride out the short term waves.

So, just advising everyone to "HOLD!" no matter what will actually work *against its long term success, even if it means some folk who *might have been "rich" would otherwise not be.

Reference is often made to the "10,000BTC Pizza" of yesteryear.. and "imagine how rich he would be now if he hadnt bought that pizza !".  

In fact, if he *hadnt (and the majority of holders also hadnt spent anything), then Bitcoin would quite likely have *NO value at the current time.   Someone has to spend *some (and a few have to spend the majority) of their wealth along the way, or it will *not ever be anything except a crazy roller coaster ride for thrillseeker day-traders.

One of the most wonderful threads I've passed by since I've joined, thanks a river really and this quote sums it all


Again, thank you really.

The real secret to not panicking, and being able to sleep at night, is to only invest what you can afford to lose.  This goes for anything, not just bitcoins.  So if BTC went to 20 cents or something ridiculous over night, I would be bummed but the effect on my life would be near zero.  If you only put what you can afford to lose, and then you assume that some investments will tank (because no one, not even Warren Buffet, wins all the time).

So if it tanks, you can take a step back and re evaluate the situation.  If you decide that the market is right, then sell.  If you think that it is wrong, then hold.  And remember, its only a paper loss until you transact.

And forget efficient markets.  I make really good returns because the markets are wildly inefficient.

Considering the world financial events happening plus the slaying of the bear market it would behoove all interested parties to have as much bitcoin as they can responsibly have at this point. The pot is brewing up something wild and crazy coming up but keep in mind how much easier it is for a lot more people to get their hands on coinage in more parts of the world than during the last bull market liftoff. Also, sounds like the Winks will have Gemini up and running in the next few weeks to months. It'll be a fun time to be alive. ;D

Wonderful thread.
The OP was last active in November 2011.
I think he would have been trolled a great deal if he ever returned.  ;D

I have no plans to sell anytime soon, I'm fairly certain this is only the beginning. Sure there will be ups and downs but in the end I would be very surprised if the price didn't reach several thousand USD per coin or more.

Incidentally Warren Buffet's most lucrative picks are the ones that he NEVER sold, the most famous one being cocacola. He has been holding for decades and will never sell. One has to approach Bitcoin with the same mentality, with the plus of Bitcoin not being a simple asset, but being a currency within itself, so you can use it without even having to convert it to any other currency, you can buy goods and services with it.

We will know we are at the bottom when someone writes that again. Yet right now instead we see people like you writing the opposite, that is why the CONFIDENCE still has to break and we still need to...

We saw a lot of posts like that just a few months ago. 18 months of a bear market was just too much for some people. The bottom has occurred IMO, and it's the beginning of a new bull ride. Things should get interesting!

HODL 4 life

It's a lifestyle

We all need to get one of those motivational posters except have it say "HODL" with a big Bitcoin logo on it. Hellz yeah. Get it framed, baby.

Warren Buffet has a different view about Bitcoin, but yes, buy and hold long-term is the way to go.
It is my philosophy too.  :)

Please do HODL all your net worth in BTC all the way down to $20 again. The coming shake out of CONFIDENCE is going pauperize all those ideological tards.

Investing isn't about ideology. It is about rational assessment of probabilities.

wow the topic you linked to is very interesting . it is funny to see the same arguments going on before on the price of $20

You fail to understand the distinction between talking that way after collapsing to a rock solid bottom and everyone being dejected and a slow rise back up. Compared to now where so many bulls are arguing we can't go lower (not dejected and not arguing about we can't go up to $1000 again), yet the recent "bottom" at $160ish was an instantaneous V reversal which never demarcates a bottom in bear market.

Clearly not the same psychological situation. We are clearly in a bottom finding mode still.

and please tell me what are the possibility of bitcoin going to 20 right now? i'm sure they are far less then those that can bring us to 300+ ot 500+

probability is telling me that we are going to rise to a high level, although not in the immediate future

and why do you say that it is going down to a drastic number like $20 now? who is going to let it happend. those big whales who have been investing in bitcoin and filling their pockets with cheep bitcoin over the past months?

A simple question, that probably requires a bigger answer than would be appropriate here, but Ill try anyway and see if anyone has a short answer.

Why do so many people on here seem to assume that "Psychological Factors" and TA are the *primary drivers of *Bitcoins price ?

I realise that Bitcoin does still have a significant speculative component to its price, and that sentiment *is a motivator of (stupid) speculators.

However, any *serious speculator will surely have access to better information about what deals are going on with the big money boys than the amateurs rah-rahing on here do, and therefore their assessment of future price will be driven by actual facts and *external events, not them peering at graphs and going "Oh look, a Double whoopty-whoop with a triple inverted cup stirrer pattern ! We're going down, SELL SELL! "

So all the talk about "We havent "Found the bottom", and "We need to reach "Capitulation Point X" on this Confidence graph, and *Then everyone will suddenly be ready to throw money at it again, and we arent there yet, so we are still going down", or on the opposite side... "Look, The MACD Indicator has crossed the candle delta point for 3 whatsits in a row..  MOON!" just seems like so much waffle to me..

It pre-supposes that Market Sentiment is the prime driving factor, and ignores the influence of external events like Fiat Currency Failures, Bank Bailouts, Listing on Nasdaq, and other non-graph-predictable event drivers.

I suppose when talking about an established Publicly listed Fortune 500 company, that is presumably run by competent managers and has many professional investors playing the game, shorting, hedging and all the flim-flammery, then market sentiment towards that company *would be the most common influencer of price, assuming the company doesnt do anything super stupid or incredible.   But they are *still subject to external events, like their charismatic CEO kicking the bucket, or some major design flaw being found in a product, or a safety recall or whatever.

But, in the case of Bitcoin, being *primarily a "Disruptive Technology" with dramatically different playing rules to the existing financial system it aims to extend or replace, Its adoption, adaption, uptake, technical challenges and successes would seem to me to be far *more significant in its price than what a bunch of penny-ante speculators *think it might do based on their tea-leaf reading of graphs.

Can anyone show any hard data showing a decent correlation between Traditional TA patterns and guidelines and *actual bitcoin prices ?   Or are they subject to retro-active adjustment by the fortune-tellers to say "see we told you so !" after the fact ?

whales are accumulating Btc daily, while the weak hands get shaken since they lose trust. It's a psychological war what they play, and they are doing a good job.

Clearly you are delusional.  ;D

The reversal has already happened. Market momentum is now in the upward direction overall. 160 was an overshoot of the bottom. 200 to 220 range was the bottom. We might retrace a bit here, but once we break and hold above 300 and the resistance becomes support, we are going to see some rapid gains.

(That's just like, my opinion, man)

I always have a bigger balance in my btc wallet, and its always nice to see.

The best advice is to forget about it, and then come back a year later to see where its at. And just be greatful the for on-going increased value.

these sort of trolling and pathetic attempts to change the market and move the price up or down has always been a part of bitcoin price market. anybody who spends at least a week reading the speculation section would realize this easily and eventually.
if anybody is deciding what to do (sell or buy) by reading these sorts of posts on a forum by a random person, he deserves to lose his money.

Bitcoin slowly and silently migrates to people with stronger hands. If someone drops a coin on the street because he believe its worthless, the next person to pick it up will obviously have a better understanding of its value.

quadruple bottom.  strong floor.  UP we go

They will never learn. 90% of them will end up with less coins than they would have if they hold. Can't feel sorry for them. It happened so many times before so it's not like they couldn't have learned from it.

Njami.  I like them and I  like bitcoins

so how long whales need to accumulation ?

You piss in the wind.

I don't have balls I am she.  What now?

this is a good reminder for all of us not to trust anything that we read on the forum because the real purpose of the posts are something else

~~hodl~~

yep. good words, you're so right. I made these mistakes not once, now I don't trust everything I see anymore

Not everything it bullshit. Just make sure you do your due diligence to be sure you know what is really going on.

Lots of people like to "talk their book" so to speak. If you're long you post epic bullish speculation and about the distant future.
If you're short they point out the flaws and typically are more focused on short term bad news.
In the end we all know that in the long run, bitcoin wins.  8)

Yeah ...sellers are too damn impatient and reckless,speculation is the name of the game, sellers don't seem to be doing that, they are simply selling recklessly, IMO.