Bitcoin Forum

Rally thread brought to you by popular demand.

To add some content: I still think that buying BTC as long term investment beats mining investments hands down. At this time this opinion applies to CPU, GPU, FPGA and ASIC based mining. For what it worth.

The above opinion has not changed since I have expressed it privately and publicly in May-June 2012 when BTC was around 5$.

I don't disagree entirely and I am sorry I didn't buy more when it was $5.50.

That being said, as a long term personal investment buying btc works.

But if we're talking about a long term investment in the bitcoin network... then we're talking about mining then spending the coin to fund growing businesses that use bitcoin. Growing the network and pushing it to become a mainstream payment processing network is key to enabling long term personal investment stability.

I hope people realize that they'll soon be saying "I'm sorry that I didn't buy more when it was $13".

We could run through the $13 and $14 levels so fast too.

Should be a fun week!

OTOH, after the rally, the price could come crashing down too. Remember last time the price went beyond $15 /BTC. There are simply too many BTC off the order book.

As for me, I sell 50% of my BTC at every 20% rise in price since my last purchase and I follow my gut feeling for buying.

I LOVE rally threads!

I want as many coins as possible but I don't have a ton of fiat sitting around.  What I do have is a bunch of video cards, so they are happily hashing for me.  And, I used the coins they minted to order ASIC.  For me, it is mining or no coins, so I mine.

I remember it pretty clearly. When the price went to $15, it did it very rapidly. It didn't make any sense from any perspective. Then the market got hit with the "bad news" that pirate was supposedly paying back his investors, creating the worry that $5 million worth of coins were about to be released to the market, with a large number of those probably seeking a conversion to fiat.

This growth is slower, and, while retractions can happen, it's unlikely a >10% correction will occur.

Look at the daily chart with a 100 day EMA on it... notice where we bounced hard after the crash from $15. Then pop the 50 day EMA on there and see where we've found support since then. Unless some serious volatility comes out of nowhere, that 100 day EMA won't be broken for the foreseeable future and the 50 should act as significant support. The 100 day is around $10 now and the 50 day is approaching $12. A huge rally above $15 in the coming weeks, on solid volume, would be a technical breakout on an insanely bullish chart. In Mid-August we were insanely overextended at $15+.... but now that our price has developed significant support around $10 and $12, we are primed for higher prices.

What? A 10% correction is relatively minor. We'll have plenty of those, mark my words! Having said that, I do think the current situation is bullish.

I view the release of asics as having the potential to break that support. In fact I'm sure it will happen - the only question is when and for how long.

Personally, I'm getting my bids in now so I'll automatically go long when it happens. And of course, I'm buying asics with fiat.

https://i.imgur.com/w4qLg.jpg

It passed the $13 mark hours ago on Bitfloor!

Last rally I called went from 5 to 15$. Let's see if history repeats itself and we hit 36$ before long. Perhaps soon after the block subsidy change event.

What is the top of this thing going to be? I hate when we rally like this because I have no clue where the top will be.

I bought at 12.9$, hope this doesn't turns very bad for me.

+1 ;D

There are only two possibilities: it may or it may not  :D.

Looks like last call for 13. Less than 1600 BTC left on this side.

This one will do, thanks...but what happened to my "I want a rally thread dammit !!!  !!!  !!!" thread??

Wall down, wall down! 13.05. :D

wimps

no hootin' or hollerin' goin' on for this ramp...

like i've said before, i think alot of us here will get left behind for the real ramp comin'.

Personally, I will neither be hootin' and hollering' for a ramp nor will I get left behind for the real ramp coming... And I'm not sure why one would. If you view price rationally, learn to read the charts, and keep a core position in bitcoins, you don't have to cheer for rallies or get left behind.

It's really nice to see the "rally" thread so quiet... Too many bulls or bears tends to be a contrarian indicator in the short term.

I'm patiently waiting for $15 to be the new floor.

why not buy now?

Bubble bursting! nooooooo :-[

Annnnnnnd...... CRASH!!

I wouldn't call it a crash. It is just a minor correction, unless it goes below $11.

What?  Where?  We will be at $14 by the weekend.

Denial :  is a defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence

 :P

Do you guys who watch the market this closely use a lot of antacids? I would have ulcers if I kept up with movements of the market minute by minute!

Ok, so what happened? I saw a 5kɃ wall at $13. According to this (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv), not all got bought up. 5kɃ are now waiting at $13.09. The market depth looked more or less symmetric.

Now the Ƀ-side is more or less unchanged. It barely moved down but the $-side vanished.

I'm not a day-trader and do one buy/sell every 2 months but I'd like to know what the majority of the market depth consists of. Are those people continuously changing their offers? Bots doing this for them speculating on the chart history/market depth? Arbitrage bots? Or is the majority people like me that buy when they want Ƀ and sell when they want $ for the days/weeks to come?

With the huge gap now I feel like it's not speculation bots quickly deciding on a new price but people that wait to see where the journey is going.

Are there any insights on transactions per user on Gox? Like a chart listing the activity of the 5% most active, … users?

I think the rally got rescheduled for Saturday. Or was that the crash?

Clawing our way back...

Usually... I always have a couple of tabs opened on my browser watching the market. I glance at it throughout the day. Sometimes just once a day, other times it could be well over 50. Today has been about 20-30 times.

mybodyisready.jpg

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE :  X FILES

If I had any more fiat laying around I would buy more Bitcoins! I'm not waiting for $15 to buy, I just want it to hit $15. :)

Does anyone have data on selling when prices reach a new whole number in USD?

sry,
whole numbers are meaningless...
their is no magical indicator that will let you know when to sell or buy.

Yes there is, all you have to do is look into my crystal ball...
http://roohaani.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/magical-ball.jpg

 ::)


i suggest you watch the "Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker" for bold price movement prediction.

then again, that may not the best idea...  :D

I've been predicting a "plunge". IMO we are looking at months of trading in the teens and then a slow down trend that will inevitably led to a less then spectacular crash to <10$ ...


good luck!

No shit, I understand EMH, but the bitcoin market is not efficient like "real" financial markets are.

EMH is a bunch of crap due to asymmetrical knowledge and information.

Yeah, every market participant doesn't need identical information for markets to be efficient, not even sure how you arrived at that conclusion.

No, but every piece of information has to meet a certain threshold of opposing parties who are aware of it for a market to be efficient.

Wrong again. You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient. It does not take two to tango.

Your statement 'You can make "wrong" movies with wrong information and the market won't be less efficient' is not the same as my thesis that every bit of information must be known by opposing forces in order for the market to be efficient.  If my condition is broken, then the sole party with the true information can use exactly the tactic you describe to break the efficiency.  They purposely let the price deviate from it's true value in order to gather money from suckers.  I'll give you that the break is temporary because they have to take profits at some point, so sure, all markets are "eventually" efficient.

Maybe you have a private definition of efficient, but it seems like you're arguing something else. At any given moment, a financial instrument's price takes into account all publicly available information, and if there is a large amount of insider trading, privately available. Prices change cannot be predicted by looking at historical price data.

Well I've given clear definitions for my claims.  You however seem to only be able to argue against claims I'm not making.  I never said anything about predicting future prices.

lol at the selloff...

Time for a rally...

They would have to know the info and know that no one else can get the info and use it to make money by being less greedy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8hNoTkX0Vk#t=0m54s
 :D

Nothing I wasn't used to seeing... until he shot out over his neighbors' houses.

He cleverly recharges. :-\ After adding the gunpowder, he throws cow manure and press a long metal rod. Showing everyone what he wants to do. As if the hints. And it's no longer a secret. though.  :P

lolwut

is "lolthat" a new TA pattern?

Officially it's called a "lolthat !"
This has been introduced on jan 1st along with the "salivating dingo over a crooked bench" and "OMGTHECLIFFISREAL" patterns.

If you do not understand me - I meant what I noticed (suspected) prepared large "bull" to yesterday's purchase. And put this video. Before firing. Shooter tight press in the gun. Cow shit. Titles: "strongly pressed shit - the stronger will be shot" :P :P

Thx!  that totally cleared it up LOL!


BTW, you might mean "bullshit" not cow shit... other then that, you remain absolutely completely inscrutable.

I smell, some bull did try a bear trick and failed ^^

Yes, I watch the BTC for almost 2 years and I have a bit of paying subscribers. (Naima53 TA)

By the way, not bulshit because there is literally in the credits, "creates a cork out of cow dung" (dung = I found the word!  :P )

[insert token failed rocket launch gif here]

still in the same price channel, folks

Its funny to see (in Google Analytics) how many people sudden check out there btcbalance account to probably check how much they get richer each mtgox price update in euros/dollars.
For me now the last 5 minutes.

+$53.186
+$24.841
+$51.345
-$38.679
-$25.201
+$50.785

LOVE btcbalance.net

I just got my uncle into bitcoin and making him a paper wallet and giving him a btcbalance.net account was the first thing I did.

Love the service, hope it sticks around.

boom

jesus

WTAF?  Stop buying for a minute.

That's certainly making for an unexpected weekend...

Oh wait, RALLY!

No.

would be great to see some stability for the next week right around this area +-.20 would be fantastic, just about a week of stability should bring us out of the deep red of the RSI and can make another big move upward

who knows tho someone might be bored and will throw a rock into the pond so to speak and we might see some volatility your guess is as good as mine, monday - tuesday should be interesting if nothing happens by then i think we are in the green for some stability

I use past chart action to judge extremes. The biggest plunge we've ever seen has been about $21 dollars. That was of course from the all-time highs to around the 10.00 area in 2011.

If that happened now, it would put us around $3.78 - however I think the market has become more resilient to absorbing such volume, so it would probably be around half of that, which yields $13.78, a price that doesn't really bother me.

I'd be a supporter at either one, but it is interesting to note how this could unfold. The strength so far has been quite impressive.

$13.78 please

BTC was so volatile one year ago, maybe if you said this same thing back then i would very much believe it but I dont see what horrible thing could cause bitcoin to plummet to half its value,

unless MTGox went out of business and sold every single bitcoin they have I dont see it happening. not saying its not impossible but really what are the odds in the current state that its in and with all the moderate press its been receiving,

Hacks dont cause the price to go down why? because it doesnt change anything in the market merely dead/stacked coins changing hands, it would really need some serious serious selling power in order to get the current trend to change, Im sure as hell jumping ship as soon as it happens but right now would see 32+ being more realistic than it going to 13, at least for now,

like any good trader I do not favor one position i go with the market and ride the waves that come with it

I think that mtgox being seized via some government shenanigans would be the only that could seriously drop the market now... and that's simply because of the amount of active btc they control on behalf of their users.

There will be a market tank soon - as a result of asics in the wild and the difficulty adjustments... we could see as many as 6 weeks worth of block rewards being generated in couple of days. But the normal support will be largely unaffected by this effect and quickly drive the price back up.

SET TROLL_MODE = ON

$500 in August, here we come ;)
https://i.imgur.com/IxwEQBc.gif

SET TROLL_MODE = OFF

Oh my

Deal

Game on! ....Game on!

seems legit.

At least the line is straight, that's an improvement around here. ;)

LoL True that. Estimate is wrong... but the line is straight.

We should have a Bitcoin rally :)

Harder now days :P

No it's not. I was part of promoting Denver's weed rally and there were tons of people there. I bet with 6 months to 1 year to prep, we could get a massive crowd :)

Well, best of luck :>

*Tips hat*

Would love to see that happen. Soon as we hit 200$ again, btc will hit the news... speculation bubbles grows.. and then pops under all the newb sell weight :/

bump for good luck!

we're going to need a lil more then luck to get a rally going  :P

The problem now is that any rally will have low volume until certain thresholds are passed and people feel safe buying in again. During that time, any work can be undone overnight by a dumper/manipulator. So it's a wasted investment at this stage.

The best metric for me would be a map of the largest holders of BTC -- I know this is impossible, but we can at least track the BTC/address density. Once can assume if this is decreasing then there are less whales / dumpers, all other things being equal.

Look up bitcoin days destroyed.

Turns out he was just a few months early