Bitcoin Forum

NOTE: THIS IS A REPOST OF  THIS (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1162102.0) SINCE THAT POLL BROKE SOMEHOW.  NO NEED TO REPOST YOUR ADDRESSES IF YOU'VE ALREADY POSTED IN THAT THREAD.  

I am donating 50,000 bits to this experiment (0.05 BTC).  These bits will be divided between 5 lucky participant (chosen at random) if everyone can come to consensus and win!

Here's how the game works:

- It takes 100% consensus on the "100%" option to have a 100% chance of winning
- ...90% consensus on the "90%" option to have a 80% chance of winning
- ...80% consensus on the "80%" option to have a 60% chance of winning
…
- ...50% consensus on the "50%" option to have a  0% chance of winning
- You may change your vote as many times as you like

So basically, you want to come to consensus at as high a % as possible (to earn more) but it's also harder to achieve consensus at that higher level.  What shall you do??

The poll will close when either:

(a) consensus has been reached on any one of the options AND at least 40 votes were cast.
(b) Poll closes August 27, 2015, 03:40:10 AM UTC with no consensus.

If the poll closes with consensus, then I will make a comment in this thread that the poll is officially closed and note the current block height as reported by blockchain.info.  We will pick a random number from the block at a height 2 blocks above this one.  A random number will be calculated like:

   rand = 100% (hash of coinbase TX) / 2^256

If

   rand < % chance of winning

Then five people will win 10,000 bits each.  To pick the winners, I will hash all of the bitcoin addresses with SHA256 and select the five addresses with a hash closest to the hash of the coinbase TX from above.  

OTHER RULES: Post your Bitcoin address in a comment.  This might be a little messy so I have the right to call off the experiment if the number of votes is vastly different than the number of bitcoin addresses posted.  I also have the right to adjust the rules if I realize I screwed something up!!  

LASTLY: If consensus has been reached and I don't notice it, someone please post a comment along with a screen shot.  

1BnAprNUBWyzawRgqusgoP5TgsmbDVdXmH 90% because after 75% threshold is reached we all go to that one and we get over 90%  :D

I am at 80% and wait for the results.

75%


The link in OP is broken btw

What if there is a rule that after 15 votes the "remove vote" option goes away??

I'm hoping the poll broke because I edited the Poll Question to clarify how the game worked.  I won't edit the Poll Question this time. 


Fixed.  Thank you. 

The day I started questioning Cryddit's credibility, he opened a thread on the Discussion board giving away some millibit amounts for some triviality only days later. Oh am I typing out loud? Don't mind me...

90%-ers come join us at 75%!  There are too many trolls that will try to subvert consensus.  Aiming for 90% is too aggressive!!

Remember: if you want to get a chance of winning, you need to post your address in this thread.  (If you've posted an address in the thread that's now locked, there's no need to repost).

For example, my address is: 1BWZe6XkGLcf6DWC3TFXiEtZmcyAoNq5BW

If you watch this video: https://youtu.be/sE7998qfjgk

Antonopoulos explains that any proposal reaching 75% triggers a "grace period" in which all are expected to conform to that proposal, once 95% is reached during that grace period the proposal is put into effect.

The point is a race to 75% and then a consensus to 95% afterwards. Once a proposal has reached 75% it is highly unlikely that some other proposal will afterwards overtake it, but according to Antonopoulos it is possible, an alternative proposal could afterwards reach 75% during the "grace period" triggering the signal to switch to it, but CONSENSUS itself is not reached until 95%.

How bout them apples? Shall I change my vote to 95% now?  ;D

Haha I don't think so.  This is a simplified experiment and we don't have a grace period.  Either we come to consensus by tomorrow, or we forfeit the 50,000 bits.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out but I strongly suspect that we won't be able to come to consensus at 90% because of (a) trolls, and (b) people forgetting to change their votes.  I will move my vote into the largest bin as we get closer to the deadline, but if the largest bin is 90% I don't think we're going to make it!!

TL/DR: join us at 75%!

Do not listen to this man, vote for 90%! We can make it and we will have 80% probability of getting free Bitcoins vs [there is no percentage in the OP for 75% so I'm assuming…] a much lower chance of reward for voting for 75%! Vote 90%!  :D

That is trickery!  75% consensus has a 50% probability of a payout!!  Is it worth it to risk not achieving consensus just to increase the probability of a payout from 50% to 80%??   :D

my address : 12iLTrfVpoSGmcLJaZgsed9zBqVKG14vDf
vote for 90% :D

I am also at 75% because it seems that have good chance with nice probability so which poll will get 40 votes first than this contest will be closed and you will pick winners if that happened before 27th?

75% means under the rules you only have a 50% chance of getting a payout. Go for 90%.

Switched from 75% to 50%

My vote goes to 75%

all go to 90% WE CAN DO IT!

I have changed my mind and switched to 90% as other people are voting to this, come on community and keep voting to 90%, yes we can do this.

We are the 90%  :)

1SoGC63df4ueo1Zum21c9DwUuft5mkyyi

Yes we are with 90%

Where everyone is going there is my vote too,so I gave vote for 90%.I think lucky winners will be from those who chose 90%.Best of luck to all my fellows.

90% is leading now with huge difference, i also voted to 90% there. ;D

We can do it! All these people voting for less than 75% need to change their vote to 90%! Don't you guys want free bitcoins???

My vote for 90% so keep voting to this and make this happen.

I am for 85% . Lets see what happens.

Uh. Oh. Looks like the poll is going to end soon with 37 out of the 40 votes so far. The current situation looks like no on is going to get any Bitcoin at all.

Yes another vote for 90% so only 2 votes remaining there.

My vote goes to 90%.

Last for is for 90% and requirement is done.

The 40 vote threshold has been met and we sit at 50% for the 90% vote. Now we only have a few more hours until the deadline, we need to convince some of these people to change their votes to 90% or else none of us will have a chance for free BTC!

Another vote goes to 90% now over 40.

With my vote to 90%.

90% is now clear winning option there. ;D

Actually, not so clear :(

We now need a lot of new players, active player that switch, or us to switch to a lower % (like 80 %)

I guess when the deadline fast approaches we should consider if we all want to move to 75%… but until then every body move to 90%!!

I'm moving my vote from 90% to 75% now. Not much time left.
18JwWGyMqgvkr7XbnUo23aAyHjR2bw2TDJ

Edit: Also, since this thread has been moved to Games and rounds, I don't think people will return to change their votes,
so ultimately, doesn't seem like we will get consensus. Just like whats going on in the community currently.  :(

I think your only hope is to come to 75% but even that might not be enough!!

(I'm annoyed that this thread was moved by the Mods as it may have affected the experiment.)

Yeah I think the mods ruined this experiment for us as I never even knew this part of the forum existed before I followed this experiment here… It's deeply imbedded in sub forums… Either way I moved my vote to 75% as we don't have much time left and I think it is the only hope we have at consensus at this point.

everybody go to 75%!

*sigh* Time to move my vote to 75%.

Hmm.... What if I used some alts to skew the results  ::)

14dD1WG6W1aUhf8BZod1881gMJwyQMMFat

75%

This is an interesting experiment. The mods' decision to move the thread does ruin it IMO, as most of the users visiting "Games and Rounds" don't care much about the block size debate or the superconsensus idea while most of the users caring that don't come to this sub-section.

If there is no more new votes, you will need 22 voters to switch to 90% or 27 voters to switch to 75% or 19 voters to switch to 50%.
If there is no more vote change, you will need 221 new votes on 90% or 107 new votes on 75% or 39 new votes on 50%.
Considering there is less than 50 minutes to go, and it is now sleeping time for the majority of bitcointalk users, I don't think a consensus can be reached.

Maybe I will PM the mods and see if we can run this sometime in the future in "bitcoin discussion."  I think the results of experiments like this might be interesting as a scientific paper. 

voted 95%
i hope this true.

My vote 90%
Good luck

I think that is a good idea and agree it would make an interesting scientific paper, I have searched the internet and cannot find evidence that any similar experiment has been done. I have suggested some modifications to the experiment on Adam's original thread if you want to check those out.

my vote for 85%

Yes, I just had a look at your suggestions.  Thank you for the ideas!

1) The winning pot (I can contribute to the pot as I am an interested party), should be distributed evenly among all participants so all have an incentive to win rather than the very low possibility of being one of the "lucky five winners".

2) There should be no time limit. To win I propose the consensus level should be maintained for over 48 hours. And the payout probability should be based on the actually ending percentage reached, not the option that got the votes.

3) Also I think if we hope for a good experiment we should PM the mods to allow it to run on the General Discussion section.

@OP lock this thread and announce the winners who participated into contest as time limit and votes already crossed more than 40 so you must come and lock this topic and announce the winners.

There is no winners, as consensus cannot been achieved within the time limit. You'd better re-read OP to understand how the experiment works.


Yes please. But if the mods doesn't buy the idea and insists such experiment belongs to "Games and Rounds", there would be not much point in doing it again IMO.

my address : 1CcWDWSvTBuysgJUCMwjRdychVDwajCFsx
vote for 75% Cheesy

My vote for 85%

Guys, the poll is over. Stop posting, you aren't doing anything but spamming this thread.

OP, can you lock this thread now that the poll is over?

lol wtf guys how hard is it to all agree to win some bitcoin together?
why didn't everyone vote 90%

Interested to know about result who are winner from this contest still no announcement?