Title: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: NLA on October 13, 2012, 08:58:00 PM I posed this question to #bitcoin, and they weren't very responsive, so here's a chatlog of my thoughts that I'd like to get some feedback on.
Code: [16:35:02] <NLA> maybe I'm just not seeing it Thoughts, anyone? Am I overlooking some possibilities here? Is it possible for Minirig SC owners to net $180,000 for a month or two before, say, the block worth is cut in half, or the network collapses, or is it possible that almost upon arrival that Minirig SC owners will net $10,000 first month, $8,000 next, etc., and never earn back their initial investment? Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: crazyates on October 13, 2012, 09:03:47 PM The BFL wait list thread has just under 50TH/s of orders. I think someone else around here claimed that Inaba (or BFL_Josh) said they were closing in on 90TH/s of preorders. The bASIC is closing in in 35TH/s of preorders. The Avalon preorders were around 18TH/s.
For my personal calculations, I'm assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, and then increasing by 20% per month after that. You can do the math to figure out the rest. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: NLA on October 13, 2012, 09:07:56 PM The BFL wait list thread has just under 50TH/s of orders. I think someone else around here claimed that Inaba (or BFL_Josh) said they were closing in on 90TH/s of preorders. The bASIC is closing in in 35TH/s of preorders. The Avalon preorders were around 18TH/s. Well, if you're assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, what are you assuming the true overall networking hash rate is right now to correspond to current difficulty levels, so I can do some simple math and multiply the current difficulty to get expected profit by the end of 2012?For my personal calculations, I'm assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, and then increasing by 20% per month after that. You can do the math to figure out the rest. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: crazyates on October 14, 2012, 12:53:56 AM The BFL wait list thread has just under 50TH/s of orders. I think someone else around here claimed that Inaba (or BFL_Josh) said they were closing in on 90TH/s of preorders. The bASIC is closing in in 35TH/s of preorders. The Avalon preorders were around 18TH/s. Well, if you're assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, what are you assuming the true overall networking hash rate is right now to correspond to current difficulty levels, so I can do some simple math and multiply the current difficulty to get expected profit by the end of 2012?For my personal calculations, I'm assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, and then increasing by 20% per month after that. You can do the math to figure out the rest. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Korbman on October 14, 2012, 05:40:15 PM The BFL wait list thread has just under 50TH/s of orders. I think someone else around here claimed that Inaba (or BFL_Josh) said they were closing in on 90TH/s of preorders. The bASIC is closing in in 35TH/s of preorders. The Avalon preorders were around 18TH/s. For my personal calculations, I'm assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, and then increasing by 20% per month after that. You can do the math to figure out the rest. Won't happen unless ASIC devices become extremely cheap, much faster, and the BTC/USD rate increases. Otherwise, your assumption sets you at 1.7PH/s by the end of 2013. Meaning that sexy Mini Rig a user just purchased for $30,000 would net an epic $870 per month after electricity costs. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: crazyates on October 14, 2012, 06:57:27 PM The BFL wait list thread has just under 50TH/s of orders. I think someone else around here claimed that Inaba (or BFL_Josh) said they were closing in on 90TH/s of preorders. The bASIC is closing in in 35TH/s of preorders. The Avalon preorders were around 18TH/s. Won't happen unless ASIC devices become extremely cheap, much faster, and the BTC/USD rate increases.For my personal calculations, I'm assuming a 200TH/s network by the end of 2012, and then increasing by 20% per month after that. You can do the math to figure out the rest. Otherwise, your assumption sets you at 1.7PH/s by the end of 2013. Meaning that sexy Mini Rig a user just purchased for $30,000 would net an epic $870 per month after electricity costs. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Korbman on October 14, 2012, 07:58:28 PM Sorry, I should clarify. I'm only estimating a 20% increase for the next 3-6 months. Past that, it's darn near impossible to even estimate what it will be like. My numbers will be off, but I'm trying to go high, so I don't oversell myself, and set myself up for disappointment. Ah, that makes more sense. That said, I couldn't agree more...it's better to figure out how you'll do when the difficulty is really high. As long as the difficulty remains under your prediction, you'll be good to go. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Shadow383 on October 15, 2012, 10:50:55 PM I like how people assume that BFL will be first... bASIC is predicting last week of November... At the rate BFL's going they could be the second player to market.
Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Gatorhex on October 17, 2012, 12:49:05 AM My first year calculations are...
Difficulty will become 10x (just add a zero to the end of the current difficulty) Coin reward in December 2012 will half to 25 coins (effectively doubling difficulty) So projected profits (after power costs @ 0.15c KW/h and 1 BTC=$12.53 and ignoring equipment cost) are... Jalapeno (4,500MH/s@4.5W) = $0.91pd, $27.30pm, $332.15pa Little Single (30,000MH/s@30W) = $6.08pd, $182.40pm, $2,219.20pa Single SC (60,000MH/s@60W) = $12.16pd, $364.80pm, $4,438.40pa Mini Rig SC (1,500,000MH/s@1500W) = $304.04pd, $9,121.20pm, $110,974.60pa You can calculate it yourself here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: crazyates on October 17, 2012, 02:53:38 AM My first year calculations are... You're calculating the difficulty when the ASICs hit and the reward drops. Noone's arguing that they won't be crazy profitable then. But what about if/when the network continues to grow?Difficulty will become 10x (just add a zero to the end of the current difficulty) Coin reward in December 2012 will half to 25 coins (effectively doubling difficulty) So projected profits (after power costs @ 0.15c KW/h and 1 BTC=$12.53 and ignoring equipment cost) are... Jalapeno (4,500MH/s@4.5W) = $0.91pd, $27.30pm, $332.15pa Little Single (30,000MH/s@30W) = $6.08pd, $182.40pm, $2,219.20pa Single SC (60,000MH/s@60W) = $12.16pd, $364.80pm, $4,438.40pa Mini Rig SC (1,500,000MH/s@1500W) = $304.04pd, $9,121.20pm, $110,974.60pa You can calculate it yourself here: http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: senseless on October 17, 2012, 10:16:41 AM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for.
All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: crazyates on October 17, 2012, 01:00:41 PM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for. IIRC, BFL has ~100TH/s of confirmed pre-orders. Cablepair has ~30TH/s, and Avalon has another ~18TH/s. All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: senseless on October 17, 2012, 01:46:41 PM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for. IIRC, BFL has ~100TH/s of confirmed pre-orders. Cablepair has ~30TH/s, and Avalon has another ~18TH/s. All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. Hence the But It's looking now like 200TH/s easily. With BFL so back logged it wouldn't surprise me to see the other ASIC pick up more pre-orders. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Gatorhex on October 17, 2012, 03:15:25 PM Quote You're calculating the difficulty when the ASICs hit and the reward drops. Noone's arguing that they won't be crazy profitable then. But what about if/when the network continues to grow? I took into account 10x difficulty and 0.5 reward (effectivly 20x increase in Hashing power) It makes not much difference, the flow of new bitcoins is constant because the difficulty changes with network power, the only thing more hashing power buys you is a bigger share of the coins at the expense of someone with less hashing power. The Mini Rig SC will always be near the top of the pile in terms of reward. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Shadow383 on October 17, 2012, 03:16:46 PM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for. IIRC, BFL has ~100TH/s of confirmed pre-orders. Cablepair has ~30TH/s, and Avalon has another ~18TH/s. All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: Sitarow on October 19, 2012, 12:44:54 AM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for. IIRC, BFL has ~100TH/s of confirmed pre-orders. Cablepair has ~30TH/s, and Avalon has another ~18TH/s. All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. I suspect hes over 700 of the 54Gh/s Units, atm. Title: Re: Implications for Minirig SC owners? Post by: scrybe on October 22, 2012, 05:00:06 AM I was thinking like 100TH/s total hash rate by DEC-JAN. But, the pre-orders just seem to keep rolling in for BFL. I myself placed a few more orders just to secure the return per month I'm looking for. IIRC, BFL has ~100TH/s of confirmed pre-orders. Cablepair has ~30TH/s, and Avalon has another ~18TH/s. All you can really do with any sort of accuracy is speculate on total hash rate after the asics hit based on published order information. I think by Jan 2014 the network hash rate should be relatively stable with a relatively small amount of growth each difficulty increase. People may still continue buying asics after that point, but I think largely the hash rate at that point will be the hash rate until 2017. If the difficulty goes to high I could see some smaller miners switching over to alt coin chains. I suspect hes over 700 of the 54Gh/s Units, atm. Tom has stated he has enough parts for 1000 units, but is closing pre-orders at 900 or tomorrow at Midnight. Right now he's in the 800 range. Of those <100 are 27Gh/s units. It has also been revealed on his website (new one is going up tomorrow) that each 54Gh/s unit is running 2x6 90nm ASIC clusters, meaning each chip is 4.5Gh/s. Sounds like a 12,000 part run, so 54TH/s from Tom would be a good worst case bet. He's also not taking new orders until January, so you don't have to worry about him adding any more hash power until later in January at the earliest, more likely a new run that will take 30-45 days to complete. (Including the backlog from the Chinese New Year shutdown it could be longer) |