Bitcoin Forum

almost two years of decline; confidence is down; sentiment is loooow

what are you currently thinking about the possibility of another major run-up of btc prices ? are you losing your faith, or are you not worried at all ?

Lol fail currency is fail

Isn't this poll a little vague regarding timing and the amount of the run up.

So for example, does it mean November December 2015, and does it mean like a 10x increase?

Also, the poll is missing whole categories of percentages... for example, the categories could be something more comprehensive, such as:


Less than 2%

2 to 20%

20 to 45%

45 to 55%

55 to 80%

80 to 98%

more than 98%

heh 3 versions of the question 

Predicting these BTC prices is the same as predicting prices for stocks. It's a guessing game. Unless something major happens, BTC will stay at the price they're at.

Sometimes there is more than one question because someone may be asking in time 1, time 2 and time 3, or the second part of the question may assume something to take place in time 1 that would affect the probabilities of the outcome at time 2, however, specifying time, amount and probability can all be contained within one version of a poll question, as long as it is NOT ambiguous on any of these areas. 

That way when the results come out, we know what we were attempting to answer rather than each of us attempting to interpret the various ambiguities contained within the poll question.

i tried to keep it simple. your percentage ranges idea is probably better. 

The questions should also have a time frame ( 2 years or 5 years).
Will there ever is too broad. I really wouldn't care if there was a run up 100 years from now.

I think it's pretty much guaranteed as long as bitcoin doesn't fail. The tricky part is when this will happen. It could be in a month or in a few years. That's why it's good to always have some BTC tucked away just in case ;)

We have had multiple run-ups actually. In 2014 there was $420 to $680 for example. More recently we have seen $180 to $320. These run-ups are huge and should not be overlooked. There is still a lot of money to be made.

I think some time stock prices can be predicted based on company business module but bitcoin prices very difficult to predict because there no business module for it but its prices are completely depends on demand and supply so only good news about bitcoin will make prices to go high.

Im not worried at all whatever happens I know it is what is meant to be. I'm just afraid not to have more coins today because I'm sure the value of it in the future will be more than anyone could ever imagine.

How much should we have?   hahahahaha    :D :D :D

i haven't lost any faith and nor will i in the comming years. i am very patient. if this year isn't the year for a small rally (which i think is the case) then we'll have another attempt next year. no problem. the halving/lower supply will definitely affect the price in a good way.

Cant erase the fact that I am a little worried about it because I have invested on it and I am hoping that in the future the value of it will rise, all I can do is to continue believing in it and to hope for the best I think its all I can do for now.

Haha! *inside joke from another thread for those who are wondering
I say at least 1 BTC even the poor folks out there should be able to afford 1 BTC in this 2 year long bear market.

It's going to zero, or it's becoming a standard of wealth preservation.

In response to the question in the OP - Will there ever be another run up?

For many reasons - Almost certainly. Bitcoin may not be the all conquering new age payment tool but there will almost certainly be another run up, probably within 18 months. From that point I can't predict whether it will be sustainable or crash again.

Not until the block size is increased considerably.

I hope so. My holding is at a loss right now. Need price increase to even break level.

Not even worried, though. I gained my btc from signature campaigns and trading. But back to the topic, I'm not too optimistic on this matter. Well as you said, continuous decline for 2 years, no big events happening and even the people aren't happy about it. Unless there would be another Willy bot, then another run-up is possible, maybe surpassing the ATH.

How are we at a 2 year decline when the price bottomed in January?

Yes i am a bit worried about bitcoin price but no i have not lost the faith..Bitcoin is now commodity and becoming stable by each passing day..Earlier bitcoin was so volatile but now since months it hanging between $220 to $280.
I seriously wish bitcoin should rise and break all records as many people expects but it will not happen till the block reward reduce to half and more and more people becomes interested in bitcoins. :)

Two things need to happen.

1. the block halving next year

2. the block size needs to increase...again next year

the question is Do we go lower before we go higher?

I agree with 1 and 2 if we wanna see a larger run up into the 4 digits again.
However I don't believe we are going much lower as we already are or had been. Meaning that $200-$220 seems to be a pretty solid bottom.

This might happen but I am not worried at all because I know time will come that it will dominate in all over the world.

How can you fully believe that though? China and a lot of other countries have already shut down and banned the acceptance of bitcoin.

I believe we have just been through about more or less than 16-18 months of downward action. Some say it will continue, others will argue that we are out of that trend. These  price movements can be draining. It is not surprising that people are looking at the future based off those very dismal months.

Of course there is.  Anything traded in a public exchange always has a chance of a run up.

for what kind of time frame we are talking about? within 2015 the chances are very low, but in 2016 are obviously much higher at least 50% in the latter case and probably the first option for 2015(2%)

I don't see why would we lose our faith. Ok, price has been sliding down for a while but that was one huge bubble that had to deflate. Those Bitcoin prices of around $1,000 just weren't justified and they couldn't last.

If you read right signs you would be able to see that we are going in the right direction. VC investments, general news about Bitcoin, big companies and banks showing interest about blockchain, etc.. The only thing holding down the price is the unsolved block size debate, since this is quite big. Once we solve this, price will increase again!

That unusual price spike of 2013 was caused mainly by Willy Bot. http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/ (http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/) Bitcoin's price on Mt. Gox rocketed from around $200 in early November to its $1,236 all-time high on 4th December, all thanks to this tool. I don't think we will see something similar in the future. So no, there won't be another run-up.

Actually, if we are talking about a timeframe and tweaking the hypothetical of this thread with more specifics, I would put the odds a bit differently.

Let's say that we are talking about a run up that is very similar to 2013 - that is a run up from today's prices to anywhere between 5x and 10x run up on prices within a couple of months - which would put the run up in the $1,200 to $2,400 range. 

Really, we almost have to rule out $1,200 as a very likely scenario because we have already been there, and many of us realize the logic and the dynamics that a new high would likely shoot quite a bit passed the old high...   accordingly, the $2,400 and above price territories seems much more likely for such a run-up, especially once BTC prices would start to get in the 4 digits arena.

My current speculation based on such a scenario as I describe above in 2015:  10 to 20%

Chances for such in 2016:   20-30%

I personally consider the odds for such to be NOT so much different between whether they occur in 2015 or 2016 even though we are running out of time in 2015, but there does seem to be a considerable battle at the moment and a long term of keeping BTC prices in the $220 to $290 range.  Surely, some of the recent volume is fake (or at least a kind of making of appearances without meaningful substance), but overall, I believe that we are seeing fairly consistent increase in the battle through the volume over the past about 7 weeks.. which seems to bring considerable potential for a break to the upside - maybe even breaking out of the $220 to $290 range within the next few weeks?

Not worried at all, since i believe there's too much money to be made on bitcoin for people to simply give it off.
The longer it stays in these or lower values, the better, for me at least, i just want to accumulate anything i can, and i think everyone should.

^ this

buy now or weep later

The true believers are accumulating.
We know that we will be laughing all the way to the bank (or wallet, I should say).  :)

LOL I just imagined us laughing our way to the bank, then going wait I have bitcoin then we turn around.

Yup, we have to adapt our jokes to the Bitcoin world.  :P

On the verge of a run-up within the parameters of the questions posed in this thread?  - maybe such  "run-up" will come after the November Fed auction of 44k coins?

nope dont think so. It's the third time we see 220 to 270+ this year.

If we look back in the charts, the "bubbles" break through a major resistance level before a real run up started.
For example: In october 2013 it took 10 days to break 207 resistance in an epic battle of bulls and bears. After it the momentum is increasing and the real rally started.

Interesting side note: 207 is the massive support level now

I think we need such an event to confirm a new run up. This could be somewhere around 400, dont know.

https://i.imgur.com/7YF7Z6f.jpg

after 100 votes:


22% think there will not be another november 2013 style run-up (or give it just a 2% chance) vs 27% believing it will happen for sure.

78% give it a chance not lower than a third

65% think the chance for giant another run-up are 50/50 or better

I call $225 to $270 also a run-up.
This is a 20% move. If you go by 5x leveraged trading you did double your investment right there...

We had many runs both up and down, and we will have plenty more because there is a lot of money to be made.

Happy trading.

yes it's a run up but op is talking about "november 2013 style run-up". So that would mean a run up which leads to a new ath.

Personally i think we need to reach 350-400 first. Then i give it a 35-50% chance that we see a "november 2013 style run-up".

I selected option of 98% chances are to see another run-up but this will not happen in November this time.I expect this by the end of next year and till then just slow but steady rise in price which will take it to that run-up in the end.

sentiment changed somewhat i guess.