Bitcoin Forum

Ok so I ordered some new mining hardware, and when it comes in and is all set up is should be slightly over the 10TH/s mark. I plan on pool mining, but my question is; at this point is it enough to solo mine? Would I have a good chance at finding any blocks? Just for example purposes what would I possibly be able to find in a period of 1 month?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=solo+mining+bitcoin+calculator

It will take you around 302 day to get 1 block if you are normal lucky.  ;)

Solo = too risky
Pool = 2.481 BTC depending of the luck of the pool (Variance) but this at the current Difficulty ... as it increase, you loose income.

@op you can solo 1 day a month.  and do safer mining the other 29 days.

What hardware did you order and what is your electricity price?  That is some of the important information.

And chances of hitting a block with 10T are not great at all.  You will most likely be doing pool mining which most miners do at this point.  Solo mining with 10T I still would consider "lotto mining".  Basically high rewards but chances are very low.

it's 0.08 per day, if diff remain the same, you can hit a block after 300 days on average, i would simply keep mining regularly with it, instead of trying solo

it's powerful enough to give you a decent income, if bills cost is cheap

If you are planning in pool mining why risk? in just solo! I prefer start by 5 Mining hardware of 10TH/s
instead of one, Quantity is needed if you are thinking of finding blocks faster right!

Early last year having 10TH/s mining you might have considered going solo.  Now, a couple S7s will get you ~10TH/s while only drawing about 2.4kW.  Could you go solo?  Sure, if you can accept the expectations that finding a block would take about 302 days.

 IIRC that calculator is a "50% chance to find a block" one - and like all such calculators it does NOT take difficulty increases into account.

 I'd figure on one block in 2 years for 12.5 bitcoin reward (halfing will likely happen BEFORE you find your first block with 10TH to work with).

Virtually no online calculator will give you an expected time to find a block inclusive of predicted difficulty adjustments.  The simplified formula they all use is this:


That's a snapshot in time formula.

You can get a decent estimate by using bitcoinwisdom's calculator (just be sure to put your costs to 0).  For example, if I put in a 2% difficulty increase, it'll take somewhere around 400 days for 10TH/s to find a block.

Even then though it is pretty slim chance of fining a block with 10 TH.   I think only way to hit it is pretty much big rentals, and it's still a gamble.

10T just is very small for the overall hash even now.  And we will have weeks above 2 percent.  When S7 rest of batch 1, and batch 2/3 ship its going to hurt on change.  And eventually there will be other makers with chips and likely higher difficulty changes.

I would highly recommend you mine in a pool. Even though 10 TH/s is a pretty good hash rate, mining solo is risky and in the amount of time it would probably take you to generate 1 block with that speed, as well as the electricity bills and maintenance which will be required, you are better off mining in a pool (especially with the fact that block halving is coming soon which will make it even harder for you to generate a block).

Mining solo, you may get lucky and score big, but there are no guarantees, whereas if you mine in a pool you are not likely to make as much, but you have a much better chance of at least making a ROI (return on investment)

For a newbie rank? you got a point there, maybe you had experience in mining right?

Mining by pools can secure your ROI, and it is not too risky than a solo miner can do, Like I said if you had the resources why risk? 

actually roi should be the same if you invest an amount that as the same value of a block, no matter if you mine in pool or solo, as long as the diff remain very falt

because if you earn, let's say 0.01 a day, it mean that you chance for a block would come after 0.01 x 2500 days

But those are silly and unrealistic if's The Difficulty is rising and will continue to do so, add to the the block halving next Year and for most people with recent hardware unless they have ROI'd before the halving they are unlikely to. If you go solo with 10TH yes you might find a Block Tomorrow or none in your lifetime. You must ensure you take advantage of the Months before the halving and the only way to guarantee that is Mining with a pool.

Rich

Difficulty makes a big difference over a miners life.   Granted it's not double digits every change like it once was.  But the difference of 2 or 5 each week is compounding, and makes a huge difference.

10TH is a pool miner amount.  You can do math and say in X number of day's it should have one, but chances of it happening are slim.

That's why I posted what I did initially.  Calculators like the one on bitcoinwisdom, while they offer you the ability to incorporate a number of factors, still fall well short of providing any kind of predictive accuracy.  For example, you can only enter a static value for expected difficulty changes.  All you can effectively do is say, "at this given moment in time, I would expect this amount of hash to take this amount of time to find a block."  Even then, it's nothing more than a guess.  You could find a block with your very next hash.  Or you might never find one, regardless of the expectations.

I guess with the bitcoin at the current value is better to take those 10th miners money and buy direct the bitcoin ,these way you can exchange or wait it get more value.

you said it right "if" well in the past that if was a no, so it's not unrealistic at all, there can be other long time flat price/diff moment in the future

so that estimation is still valid

You might have something in the vicinity of 50% getting a solo block with 10THs before profitability really crash because of the halving. I'm not sure how it will affect the price before and after it but you can decide to go it either way. Secure your ROI or gamble it away.

If you win, you can really make bank on your 10THs. It's even possible to get 2 or even 3 blocks solo. As long as you keep in mind none at all is more likely.

More realistically than trying to anticipate a time frame to find a block (because by nature that is impossible due to probability), is to look at every block that's found.  

At this moment, with 10 TH/s you have approximately a 1 in 46,338 chance of holding the magic hash every time a block is found.  Those odds do not lower at every block as the calculators would have you believe, they are the same odds every time (until difficulty is adjusted, and personally I would plan for a ~3% average difficulty increase between now and the halving)

You could have a 1 MH/s miner and the first hash that goes out is the winner, or likewise you could have 1 PH/s and go weeks without a block. Do yourself a favour and look at some of the medium-sized pools (like Eligius for example) and look at the block history and their luck.  The variance is huge, and they are operating with 14 PH/s.  For you to solve 1 block within 300 days would require flat difficulty and >100% luck in comparison.  Imagine how it would play out if "your" block was a 25% luck block (you would have to mine for ~3.25 years with your hashrate keeping up with difficulty if that was the case).

I hope this makes sense.

I wouldnt now buy any miner with 10ths i would buy bitcoin direct and trade it mining with 10th looks a huge value,but as people already said the time to find a block will take too much time with luck.Nowadays without free energy i guess most people are buying btc direct instead mining .. even cloud companies arent getting  new investments.

OP created a new account then posted this question on 4th October, 14 days ago and hasn't been back since.

Why do people do that, it really fucks me off ???.

Maybe they are trying to generate discussion for their main account? No i really don't know. Half the questions in beginner/help and mining support i reply to are single post account that post and don't even log back in after that.

Is it that hard to make a bookmark and come back to it later on? Or are they just giving up on BTC instantly because its "so much trouble"?

they are farming account, there is no other explanation

they know that posting in the off-topic section alone, is not seen well by signature manager

Only other I can think of is they did not want to be looked like as a "newbie" on a question.   If they are farming it they are doing so well. 

Although you could be right.  I think if they get 1 post in activity they can eventually gain it.  So that part sounds like farmer.    Which I don't understand I get enough of the boards on my one account.  I can't imagine trying to farm.

Well usually most of us dont search for the op but the thread ,if we see a thread moving 2 pages daily means there is some interest at it.And well replying here will give an idea to the new members that find this forum and wanna know their income,soo its like a support to know.But well what is the point to them to make a new post and reply once with their accounts just to get activity? Or new post to count signature?

Or Maybe OP has a rank up account and this is his other account then his main account will increase post by posting here while this account is simply making Threads just that his main account will gain post. maybe? hehe  ???