Bitcoin Forum

The Halvening

Spelled like this it looks like we're about to see an action sci fy horror movie. And in a way...

"It's going to be fascinating to watch as we approach the next halving. 41 weeks away right now (bitcoinclock.com).
FORTY ONE WEEKS.
That's not that far off.
Will it ignite the rocket ship? or lead to a collapse in mining if the price doesn't jump? or will we be range bound for another full year?
As other events that were widely expected to move the price come and go (from Gemini going live to the Silk Road auctions) , the halvening sits out there as The Big One.
Moon kids are already starting to hold their breath.
Bag holders are hoping that they'll be bailed out by the halving.
Buttcoiners are buttcoining
41 weeks. It's coming. And the effects of the halving may begin months prior to the actual date. It's been a fun ride so far, definitely getting some popcorn ready for the next 9 months.
See you on the other side :)"
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3o89yz/the_halvening/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3o89yz/the_halvening/)

 Yes it will be fascinating,good you started that thread,41weeks,so it is 10  month,long and very short time

yes, I like the title too

like 'the quickening' in the highlander  8)

The price raise is inevitable with time and halvings etc
I am sure of that much..

Raise to $50,000 per piece I am not sure in our lifetimes, it could happen easily if some  event  increased demand rapidly but I would predict a more gentle curve upwards with adoption growing and supply dwindling....

$5000  I can see.... In the not too far away future 

More Scarcity  + equal  consumption would bring us there eventually as is without anything happening  ....
  but the unpredictable things like   darkwebs services  and markets and gambling are growing as more and more people figure out how to use them so the growth could hyper inflate much faster than people anticipate...

50k a btc would need legitimate companies using or accepting  it for business transactions to reduce costs etc I think but 5k will be attainable whether they like it or not due to factors outside their control

The people have the power to make or break anything and the general public  will not stop smoking weed/gambling or whatever else they  want  just because their local law says they're not allowed that...

An uncontrollable multinational payment system that involves no trusted party will never fail completely  so  forget anyone who says it's going to $0 as they are probably buying up  coins while scaring you into parting with yours cheaply... There is a ridiculous amount of these kind of people now, they say btc is doomed worthless and yet they spend all their time on a btc forum (wouldn't that make their lives worthless too? ) .... Not too difficult to see their true  agenda once you've been here for awhile... you will be able to spot them from a distance ....

Be wary of them here and elsewhere scaremongering  .... They will do anything to get your btc because the race has started and human greed has no limits... But btc IS limited, scarce and valuable... Wink

If we don't see SIX figures during our lifetimes it would mean Bitcoin failed. 50K is nothing. You guys seem to forget that there will ever exist 21 million coins and a lot of them are lost forever already, so its less than 21 million coins of total supply. You seem to forget that it would only take around 1% of fiat economy to be inside the Bitcoin economy to hit something around 300.000 USD per coin at current supply...

Well I must admit that I got shills while reading your post! So damn exciting the next year will be! :)

I am pretty sure that the price will rise. Having half of the amount of new coins being created daily is very good for Bitcoin and I also think that this halving was long overdue. At the current prices, the current amount of new coins is putting huge down pressure on the prices. It's good to know that after July 2016, there will be only half of this pressure left.

I dont unerstand the original post can anyone tell me what he means? I am too waiting for halving

Why would the price rocket or collapse at the next halving? What would cause this?

The true success of bitcoin doesn't rely to its price per dollar but rather if its accepted as a standard form of payment all over the world. I'm a solid believer of 1 btc = 1 btc and not 1 btc = $xx. We are still inclined to fiat these days because obviously, US$ is still the world's standard form of payment and is pretty much accepted in the whole world. If the day comes that most nations of this world start accepting bitcoins as a standard form of payment, then we will be able to see bitcoin's success.



Less demand + more supply = price increase. If there would be lesser coins to mine after the halving and the demand for it is still increasing, the result would probably be a price increase. Basic economics, it still applies to the complicated world of crypto.

You might not have to wait 41 weeks.
People will start reacting, in anticipation of the event.
So expect a trend to emerge months before the block reward is reduced.

Without a true increase in organic demand for BTC, there's really not too much moon to look forward to. The Market Maker for bitcoin has always had the ability to pump BTC sky high, but they simply won't if there isn't sufficient organic demand to support the price there. If the market maker has to support the price, then that says two things.

1. He isn't making money
2. The price of the asset is over priced because nobody wants to buy at that price.

So, there's really only two options, hang around the price at which there is real liquidity (and it looks like mid 200's is that range) or pump the price incrementally along with big hope events.
Every move by the market maker is a calculated move for his own profit. Not for everyone else.

the halving will reduce the miners block reward by half for every block they mine which as of right now
is at 25BTC per block when the next halving occurs which is next year it will be at 12.5BTC per block
this the time when prices of btc increases bc of more demand with the limited amount of supply still we dont know what might happen in the future so stay tuned

You can't really valuate this asset by looking at the supply side alone. Because pricing based on supply and demand equilibrium is done by analysing both the supply AND the demand.

Now, if you had halve a brain (excuse the pun) you would have asked the question, why despite more adoption, higher magnitude of volume in trading, and more spotlight on bitcoin causes a sharp decline in price? Clearly, it was grossly mispriced in the first place and the demand was artificial.

The lesson is, don't just assume that as the supply schedule halves, that the actual supply of coins halves, no. The halving is actually about the rate of supply being added to an existing supply being halved.

Of course it was. Willy bot was the whole reason for the huge price spike in 2013.

its more like the shakening. People don't even understand what kind of shakening the 29th Thursday had. Nobody really understands what money is.

It's like borrowing Karl Marx to be a Communist symbol... or is it a Capitalist symbol?

It is basic economics and yet this is not the first bitcoin halving. None of the things you mentioned happened before after the halving of 2012. Why?

hype first, the halving itself won't have a very big impact, because you must take into account that miners could in theory dump the same amount of cois to bring back their profit if the price will not raise too much

for example if miners are dumping 1800 coins now and have more profit than what they need to sustain their business, then with the price halved they will be forced to dump 1800(all) coins

Every one is looking forward to the block halving because they expect the price to rise considerably. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a huge dump at some point just before the halving to scare off people. Everything is possible.

Hopefully its not another buy the news situation and we actually see some organic growth.

Halving is overhyped. W can only speculate what will happen after it. Standard economics, law of supply and demand would say that bitcoin price MUST go up. But here is a problem, Bitcoin is not exactly under influence of standard economics laws. Personally I would be very surprised if bitcoin price skyrocketed as a result of halving.

Exactly! This is what is already happening: $250,3 for BTC. The rising has started! And after 9 months the child will be born, and the name of the child will be $500.

I believe that the rocket ship will launch, and it would  exceed than we ever reached before.
9 Months... :o

I'm also hoping to see some sustainable growth out of this halvening, but I suspect many many people are going to use it as a speculative opportunity. It could mean rollercoasters.

Price of Bitcoin will surely rise after next halving.Some people say at last halving people were saying same that price will rise and nothing happened but there is big difference in then and now.That time price were already high and now price current price can not bring profit to miners if we calculate expenses of mining so after halving price of bitcoin should be at least 350 $.

Price will double after 9 months,better hurry and buy some,or you will find yourselves with bad feelings without having heard me.

price should rise even without the halvening. i would estimate a price between 400 - 800 USD next year (pessimistic view  :P )

I am not putting my expectations that high... For Bitcoin to see any increase in price, we need to assume most of the Bitcoins being released are sold and then some....

So the demand now, will be 100% or more for the Bitcoins being released via the block reward... When the Halvening happens, the theory would be that less Bitcoin is becoming

available, but the demand is still the same.. So less supply and more demand, should effectively double the price.. right? What if something happens in the meantime? A new

scandal or a government ban or more Silkroad coins being sold? All of that determine the price... So it's premature to speculate what the price will be then.  ::)

It is not about hype but I will do agree with those who say this time halving of blocks will have positive impact on price.There will be anyhow some rise in price till then.Next year price will be more stable and more higher than now.

Don't act so reckless we don't know for sure that the price will rise after the halvening
and 10 months is till a long time to wait, there could be something happening in that 10 months time ;)

Indeed, the next halving time is what people waiting for. i'm really sure if the price rise, it will down again. in this case i assumption there are 2 party, who make a sell wall when the price rise and people who buy after sell wall over.

This is interesting to watching :D

What I expect for price to be after halving is somewhere between 350-400 $ next year.This is without any unseen extraordinary event which can take the price even higher than this.Yes, I also see rise in price of bitcoin after halving will be done.

I am also worried about what will happen after that halving on reward. I think some miners will leave mining bitcoin due to high cost of mining if the bitcoin price doesn't grow around 500$ by 41 weeks as this will balance between reward and price. If it goes to this level than i think price will not lowered than that after halving.

Not far off? It's near a year away. I do think it will have an impact on the price but will be ultimately superficial. People will panic around that time buying coins thinking its going to rise and it will because of that.

agree to a point, especially with alts

however, mining costs are so enormous and industrial for bitcoin
it will definitely affect price, pretty much as they won't autosell
we are pretty much at break even now

life inside china bitcoin mine, motherboard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3I

I will be amazed if we are not mid to high xxx btc in a year, min

not just based on the halvening

Thisnweeks will pass somfast we wont even notice

There's nothing to afraid of the halvening guys..Everyone should be much excited like me because seeing the past halvening i know bitcoin price will rise ultimately..so should be happy and wait for halvening to occur next year..Halvening effects can be seen months before halvening because people will try to buy as much bitcoins as they can,to hold them and then the price will go up  ;)

And then... the price will go down after halvening start, because people who buy and hold bitcoin make a sell wall on the market. in this case new exchanges is useful for chase away the sell wall.

it is evident from previous halvings that bitcoin prices doubles after each halving, so i think that prices will not skyrocket after halving. 500 dollars is what i am speculating, as there is currently no news of mass adaption of bitcoins which can skyrocket its prices.

Yes, I also believe the price will rise before the halving. The tendency is to go up in price since it is the logic behind the supply and demand. However I don't think the price will skyrocket. It will probably double in price.

previous block halvings were when bitcoin had a very small market cap, which makes it very easy to get the price up in a quick fashion. the upcomming halving won't result in a double price.

If you think people won't stock up on coins in the months before the halving, you are mistaken

i would be more surprise if the price falls as a result of it, than any other scenario, it does not need necessarily to skyrocket to prove that the halving worked, a right increase could do the trick

we would get at least a better value out of bitcoin, which would increase short-term adoption

Things can easily snowball out of control and likely will - people buying before the halving  will be reported by the media and the publicity will  lead more people to buy.... Then the halving of surplus coins will take effect so there will be a new ALT.... and it might even shock us  all  come before the halving because people I have talked to are stocking up in advance

like the Gox bubble?

I hope because bubbles are lucrative and some people always stay when the bubble poops

all these different hypes are the fuel that powers the market at times and drives it up and down. some of them drive the price up and some push it down.

halving is by far the biggest anticipated one of them, i say since most bitcoiners are waiting for a big rise as a result of halving, then the price is going to go up. the question is "by how much"

The next bubble might be driven by users rather than artificially trading bot or gox cooking the books... But literally anything could start it, maybe we'll see it well  before the halving
Even 1 single country dumping funds into btc could have a huge effect on the price

Never heard of a pooping bubble...

When prices droop and you have to cut your loose, that is when a bubble poops. :)

Indeed, I imagine many have been accumulating coins all year in preparation for the halving. The trouble is, how many halvings did the 2013 bubble price in? :D I wonder if expectations are too high here.....

It IS overhyped, but that could be good for the fact that there might be extra demand for bitcoins and the trading scene could benefit with that.

A lot of People want to get more btc I think ... But they can't buy a load at once and still pay the rent etc if  they're  job only pays x amount every month.... Buying will pick up  when the media reports on it and the coming halvening

Facinating? I think it deserves more than that. There are so many theories and assumption made thus far based on the little known facts that we are trying to imagine and create with all kinds of scenarios. And as we all know bitcoin is always full of surprises I have a feeling the outcome will caught everyone by surprises.

Hype is good and we need a little excitement, but theoretically bitcoins halving should have an effect as long as demand is still the same or higher.


Haha. Got a laugh out of that. Maybe it shits bitcoins everywhere when it does pop poop.

This does put a negative spin on it putting it that way.  :(
Usually stock splitting is in favor of the holders. But this is conveyed differently.
Will need to wait and see just like everybody else. Crossing my fingers  :-[

 8) ;D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

I think we will set a new ATH around the halving.

im kinda scared for the reward halfening, just worried that bitcoin just might go haywire and people lose hope  :(

lots of data hall equip gonna hit the world ..mucho btc difficulty increase in next 4 or 5 months.......if more sideways price action and the pull back on mining begins
because they got burnt driving difficulty up on each other...well

something? has to happen imho....sideways on price at that point and you could well be right it could slip/slide downward towards despair and confusion  (gasp) 'tulips' Ack!

Something has to give ..that something you'd think would be 'price increase' but wtf I've no idea

Difficulty will adjust to the appropriate level, if some people shut down their mining rigs the ones that keep running will get the mining rewards when difficulty subsequently falls, probably within 2 weeks... Its a self sustaining system

It will be interesting to see which company is willing to mine at a loss for 2 weeks. (If the price doesn't double beforehand)

like ti was said, there will be profit for anyone with a s7 and 0.05 electricty, even before the halving

one s7 consume $45 per month and earn you $300 per month(1.2 btc) after the halving, you have still 45 vs 150