Bitcoin Forum

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Seems to be curving upwards slightly. Of course this is just a sample of possible growth indicators, and it does not mean that all wallets created are new users. But nevertheless it does appear to be the beginnings of exponential growth, perhaps.

Also of interest, 16 August 4M wallets, 12 October 4.5M wallets. 500k in about 57 days. Not bad.

What does qualify as a "My Wallet Bitcoin Users"? Because i doubt there's 4.5m users on blockchain.info. Maybe 4.5m privkey?

And i'm not sure about BTC growth and i don't think anyone is. We could be looking at BTC being at 1k or 10k or 1$ in 20 years. So exponential up until a cap is possible, but there's no telling either way i'd say.

Yes bitcoin growth is on raising exponential over time as expected. Price will follow the user base later on. 4.5 millions wallets must belong to at least 2 Million users. That's not a small number to leave off. The nearing halving will do some magic on bitcoin user base as well as bitcoin prices.

AFAIK my wallet users is the amount of wallets created on BlockChain (the company, not the actual blockchain).

I don't know about 2M users, who knows. There are estimates of 10 wallets for every person, but that was also guesstimates.

The interesting part is the following: if you are trying to track your weight and you get a new scale you do not expect to see the same weight. What you can track however is relative change and fluctuations and that is what is important here. In my view how many people there are with wallets does not interest me as much as what I perceive to be, the first proper hints of exponential growth. We may have had exponential growth before but it was with far less users and the changes were far more sudden.

Why would the halving affect user base and price? Price I would have thought yes, but the last time if I recall correctly it did not make much of a difference.

Also of interest:

About 2M wallets August 2014
4M wallets August 2015

So it doubled in 1 year. For it to double again we need 8M wallets in Aug 2016, seemingly not impossible because at the moment we look at 1M new wallets every 4 months. Coupled with some slight exponential growth I would say we are on track easily for 8M wallets August 2016.

16M Aug 2017
32M Aug 2018
64M Aug 2019
128M Aug 2020
256M Aug 2021
512M Aug 2022
1024M Aug 2023
2048M Aug 2024
4096M Aug 2025

...

That is of course highly simplified but who knows...it could be even faster because money is such an emotional thing - it may just lead to a situation where the rats run from the ship, although past historical data appears to indicate otherwise.

Hmm, even if we say 16M = 1.6M unique user, that would still mean the entire world's population by 2030 and honestly something just sound off about this. Even 1.6M unique users does not sound right and the growth until now does not sound right.

I/we must be missing something.

i would like to think, that the value increase exponentially too, it could explain why there was not any mojar "update" on the price, it could be x50 every 5 years or something

price and users base should be tied anyway

you mean we are less than 1.6M users right now?

I have no idea. Seen some stats on people trying to calculate and it appeared to be more than 1M users at least at the moment.

Do you think there are less users or more? Not sure what you meant.

If you don't share the rate of wallet growth for the 57 days preceding 16 August, there's no way for us to know if that 500k in about 57 days is "not bad" or "not good".

The real problem is that wallet growth doesn't indicate greater adoption or long term use. It only indicates greater introductions, it doesn't mean that people stay with it or fully adopt it.

It will probably grow in an s-shaped curve.

Slow at the start, once momentum is gained, we go up very fast, but as we reach adoptation, the amount of new users starts to slow again reaching an asymptote.

Price is speculation in anticipation for what is to come...so after many years hoping myself I have also jumped on the wagon of usage and technology is key.

I am far more interested in how many users there are, price is just a function of that really.

Facebook with 1M users, pretty useless
FB with 10m users, a bit useful
FB with 100M users, pretty useful
FB with 1B users....you know the answer

Network effect indeed is key here.

Good points. Preceding 57 days were about 390 000, vs 500 000 for last 57 days.

I share your sentiment but only partially - it still seems to indicate increased interest and use, although I cannot take away from your argument - long term use is king here.

I`m waiting for coindesks Q3 report:
http://www.coindesk.com/research/

I dont think its exponential, but it sure double/triples in a half year period, i dont know how faster it will grow later on, but definitely the next year will be exciting after the halving.

I can see bitcoin at 5000$ by then easily.

ofc that's a pretty good numbers and about the halving expect a lot and i'm talking not only about that he price will grow up, im talking about a faster adoption because more and more news will be out there so people will spread the word faster.

so maybe not, but is growing pretty well ;)

Blockchain My Wallet is a horrible indicator of actual users of Bitcoin as it is not tied at all to identity and allows multiple accounts. I'd rather use verified Coinbase users as an indicator and work up than Blockchain users and work down.

yeah but big money in play can help adoption, you see with the 1200 ath people were coming like bees on honey, so their tied in both way, both need the other

problem is that you need someone rich to start the race, before the little fish jump in, and increase the users base, which as a result would increase it even more

It might be off-topic, but I have to say it. I can't believe that so many people actually are using blockchain.info wallet. This thing is so buggy and gives such a terrible user experience.

I mean 4.5M wallets, for God's sake that's a lot!

Bitcoin growth will not be exponential, however the "adoption" jumps will appear as exponential price jumps, but this is sure to be compensated in the coming time thus eventually evening out at linear growth.
All growth is good growth, but don't get ahead of yourself! :D

If it ever did have an exponential phase we'd sure as shit know it.

Look at all the blockchain.info wallet charts, it is textbook linear growth for all charts but the "all time" chart. So even if you assume growth of blockchain wallet users is an approximate to bitcoin growth, it isn't exponential. I think the exponential phase is not here yet. There will be signs of the arrival when you hear strangers on the streets start talking about bitcoin and when your friends start asking for your bitcoin address to pay you back for the lunch.  :D

Satoshi advised us to use a new address for every transaction if we wanted to remain semi-anonymous. Some blockchain.info users might be creating a new account for every transaction, which would create the illusion of masses of new users signing up each month. The amount of active wallets constantly being reused might give a better indicator of the amount of real blockchain.info users, though that would discount those users attempting to remain anonymous.

It has never stopped growing nevertheless of VC money, or the actual price or mining hashrate or nodes used... it just doesn't seem to care when it comes to actual growth. This is good news, it only means that no matter what, more and more traffic is coming in within the eco system, which means once the software gets perfected and we can deal with more people, the growth will be even bigger.

Right now there is no exponential growth. But I think that it will be the same as the internet for example or like the computers. When the time for exponential growth comes, within 18 months the Bitcoin community will grow to 20-40 million and then after 6-8 months it will grow to over 200 million people. The rest will be a history... in my opinion.

But this is all illusionary.
Those numbers are derived from now conclusive data. Bitcoin numbers are non quantitative.
The number of bitcoin users can not be measured accurately.

note:
quantitative - a type of information or data that is based on quantities obtained using a quantifiable measurement process. In contrast, qualitative information records qualities that are descriptive, subjective or difficult to measure.

There is no way to determine accurate number of bitcoin users. I can't operate on hard numbers, we can only estimate.
Number of transactions, number of created blockchain.info wallets or number od addresses mean nothing really.
We can't judge numbers based on that info. My guess bitcoin is far from exponential growth, we are still behind.

Yes, far behind of what these numbers want to show the community, thus pump it's value.

1- 1.5M = 97 days
1.5 - 2M = 122 days
2 - 2.5M = 97 days
2.5 - 3M = 99 days
3 - 3.5M =  102 days
3.5 - 4M =  76 days
4 - 4.5M = 57 days

let's hope for 45 days next 500k.

i have another theory on how the price will grow based on adoption, currently we are 3M+ as a users base and the market cap is around 4B and the price is near 300

i believe the ratio is around 1:1:1 between these three factors, so to have a 10k price for bitcoin we nee 100M users at least

3M users...who knows. What do you base that on? I've seen anything from 500k users to 5M users flying around.

3M sounds potentially reasonable although I would not be surprised if there are say 1.5M only at this stage.

just an estimation, based on what i've gathered online, many website have reported that numbers of user, if it is more than 3M than the 1:1:1 ratio will be more true

for example this http://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/17/bitcoin-to-near-5m-active-users-by-2019-remain-niche-study.html

I don't trust that article...if there are 3M now and we get expected S-curve adoption/growth I can imagine 50M in 2019. Maybe a bit more,maybe a bit less but in that ballpark.

I find this hard to believe. I honestly think that in whole Bitcoin industry there is no more than 1M users. Of course, I wish I am wrong. I wish that there is 10M, but I don't think that's possible.

Heck just on this forum, there is a bit more than half a million registered users. I know this doesn't mean a lot, but it's a number for some sort of reference however.

I thought coinbase alone had something like 2M registered users. Unique ones.

Not sure if I misunderstood that.

The price will rise in preparation for the block halving, there is a major rumor that the bitcoin price will rise after the block halving so people are now buying in. 4.5 M wallets must belong to atlas 1-2 million people.

Do not think it has exponential growth. Just common sense tells it. At least, not fast-exponential enough to notice it along several months. Maybe it will have double value in 100 years and five fold value in 200 (that would be exponential) but it would not matter really.

2 years ago the price was fairly close to what it is now. What growth?

Actually, 2 years ago it was at 110$, since then we had the MtGox manipulate the price to a massive extent, then crash to all hell, according to people, survive several "official deaths" and now we're at a stable 200$+

If you don't see the growth difference between value one and two, then no i guess there wasn't any growth(?)

The past price number has nothing to do with future predictions. Because the user base and bitcoin accepting business are completely different when we comparing. The real potential of bitcoin only will come out when no one is prepared to face it.

One thing to bear in mind is how many more coins there are around now compared to back then. There are three million more or so.

yet we are stuck since more than a year already, the impact of the last ATH from the big dumping that happened afterward, has frozen the good opinion that many had about bitcoin

now, because of that they are reluctant to trust bitcoin again, and this will not change until further improvements on any aspect of bitcoin

Well in the last year we were rebalancing after MtGox's fake pushing up of the price. If you compare to 2 years, we're at 270$~ vs 110$~ which seem pretty good imo. Now that we're mostly stabilized after the aforementioned bubble, we can start getting real growth data from what will happen from now on.

Unless another bubble hit soon...

I'm confused by people saying that the growth will be an S-curve, not exponential. An S-curve is no different than exponential growth. The S-curve is just exponential growth that has hit the saturation point.

Each S-curve is composed of many fractal S-curves. Take Facebook for example. Harvard had its own S-curve. Then growth plateaued for a few weeks or months until critical mass built up at another university. Then there was an S-curve at that university. Then there were a few weeks until critical mass built up at a third university. We should expect to have months go by where it seems like nothing is happening. We need critical mass to build up in a new demographic or new country or whatever to see the new waves of adoption.

The growth in the usage of bitcoin has been exponential from the start... As the rate of adoption inceases, the pace of growth accelerates even more

i think it will peak more higher in 2018 or 2017 because if people could get to know it it will make the joinon rate explode

Yes of course the Bitcoins growth is going exponential and I am sure it will reach its peak amount in this year .2016 will sure bring the good hope for all the Bitcoins users around the world.

But what is so special about 2016?
What does 2016 have that wasn't there in 2015? ;)