Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin halving day will soon be upon us; I'm predicting a nice bump in price around this time, a huge drop in the hashing power of the mining community and a bump in fees.
Not everyone agrees with me but mark my words will see a huge drop in hash rate and thus in the security of the network after halving day. I hope the network is ready.


Made edits sorry I don't want to be stuck in speculation no one comes here.

lower security because you think miners will leave the network, cuz of lower reward?

i can easily prove that there would still be huge profit for them

by the time the halving come everyone will use s7, s7 anminer consume only 1200w, while delivering almost 5 tera, which are 0.04 per day

consumption is $45(rounded) per month at 0.05 electricity cost, the average for big farm(0.05 x 1.2kw x 24 x 30) vs $300(0.04 x 30 = 1.2 btc) per month, right now

after the halving, will be $45 in consumption vs $150 in profit, even if the diff double, you have 45 vs 75, still 30 pure profit each month and zero need for roi, because i'm sure they roied on every asic already

Well yes it might be rewarding for some but less profit overall to pay for security; the price to attack the network will drop as a result.
The network will never be as secure as it is now, regardless of how cheap they make ASICs. The overall picture is less money going to the good guys to protect the network as a whole.

I thought that we already have so much hash rate that even if we have a drop of let's say 30% because some miners will definitely leave after that halving, we would still be largely OK. Even the latest rises in difficulty are proving us that we have really a lot of hash rate at the moment.

So what am I missing here in my thinking?

If its cheap to mine bitcoins then its also cheaper for any adversary, the price of mining hardware has nothing to do with it.

I predict that by summer 2016 when the halving will occur the price of BTC will rise twofold (the rising has started already) and it will be pretty profitable to mine BTC especially with the new s7.

OP, I can't understand why do you predict consequent drop in price of BTC months later? Do you really think that by Jan 2017 the price of BTC wil be under $300? Because I think that with rising popularity of BTC the prise will rise too, and after the time of halving the price will never be lower than $550.

Sorry bailing on this thread it got moved to speculation.
Would much rather talk about security of the network.

Don't think we'll see the fees going up after the halving. The low fee thing is one of the selling points of Bitcoin. Beside that, I don't think that many miners will shut down their hardware. It purely depends on what the price is by that time. If it goes up to at least $350 then the difficulty might stay the same.

I don't think that the transaction fees will be increased.
Basically the old miner (old mining rigs) will leave because there is no profit.
Or at least they will run just for fun and hobby or the profit is very low.
These with high-end technology like Antminer S7 will continue as the ROI is promising.

And your predictions will tend people to push for buy instead of investing in mining. That's the chain reaction would trigger another round. With the higher price, new miners will come in. The only much needed thing is new people for bitcoin community.

The longer the bitcoin network exists the weaker it's security becomes. This is built into the protocol.

Sorry I have to add to that before the permabulls come out.
The protocol encourages centralization.
The protocol doesn't push the price up, instead it pushes miners out.
The protocol uses weak algorithms that will be broken within a few years.

Predictions based on difficulty/network hashrate (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty) never going up are such fun!

We shall see. Not that it's anywhere near comparable but LTC's hashrate remained essentially unchanged post halving.

Hmm, you said that there will be a price bump, then it will be ideal for miners to continue on hashing even if the quantity of mined coins are decreased by half. As for security? It's as if big mining pools would team up together to perform a 51% attack against the network? It is just too improbable to happen as it will literally destroy bitcoin in terms of trust form the mass and the price too.

Why would we have higher fees?
If Bitcoin's price increases, isn't that incentive enough for miners to keep mining?

Exact this is the point that once halving completed there will be rise in price and for miner it should be ok to take profit from the higher prices.There will not need to increase the fee in my opinion.There will be no effect on security it will also remain same secure like before.

I think Chinese mining farms will continue with mining even when the price doesn't go up as much as we hope. The question is will farms from other parts of the world also continue if the price stays at $300? I'm sure the fees will stay the same, so we don't have to worry about that.

Fees could rise after the halving day, it is controlled by the miners. Since they receive less from block rewards, they might only include transactions with higher fees to compensate. This is unlikely but possible.

Until the cost of running a farm is over the payout, network security won't be too much of an issue.  The hardware has already been purchased and infrastructure set up, so there isn't a reason to quit just because you're getting less.  If it gets low enough a few farms may sell all their hardware, but I think the majority are in it until the mine runs dry (figuratively speaking).

Network security doesn't seem like much of an issue at this point, anyway.  Anybody taking a large payment is going to wait for a few confirmations, and the hashrate is too astronomical to make it worth trying to double spend. 


I don't foresee any changes in the fees to send, most users are still going to be sending with the same .0001 and the blocks need to be filled one way or another. 

It will depend on price of bitcoin, difficulty on mining and how much watts consume the miners. If price is high miners will not stop, if price is low possibly the difficult will descent as some miners will stop. There are more than one variables.
About the fee cost, it depends also on bitcoin price. The same fee is higher in dollars if Bitcoin is higher.

Well I would think that if major miners were to drop, some mining farms will pick up the slack and start investing more to produce an even higher hashrate to secure more of a percentage in the mining industry percentile.  This halving will ultimately create a higher amount of centralization and less security for people making transactions... so it will be a push comes to shove type of environment where some major holders will cash out some of there stash because of the lack of trust, while keeping some of their coins for speculations of a higher price point.

High priority transactions (which include aged inputs) have certain space set aside for them in each block. So the miners cannot decide to include only transactions with higher fees.

Yes everything is based on bitcoin network difficulty. When the miners leave the mining due to lesser rewards there are chances of less difficulty which may lead to higher fees due to fewer miners. But lower security of network not at all possible due to bitcoin mining competition.

I guess less miners will switch of than you think. Switching off makes the competition mine more coins, while you gain nothing --> pure loss for you, gains for the competition.

Also, if miners still see it as a long term investment, meaning they want to hold on to the coins, they are not even looking at the current price to make their calculations.

They might switch off some older miners that consume too much electricity, but they will have been replaced by then.

LK is coming out this Spring with a 'supposed' 14nm chip and also home miners.

Here is the below thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1033676.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1033676.0)

Some have speculated on the thread (if I remember right) 3TH home miners at very reasonable costs (again unicorn dream here just saying if legit) on the above link.



Bitfury is running out it 100 million USD data hall with its new chips



http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-details-100-million-georgia-data-center/ (http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-details-100-million-georgia-data-center/)


KNC is still expanding (I think) its giant Data hall with its 'private' chips and IPO $$$


http://thenodepole.com/2015/06/04/kncminer-to-build-new-20mw-greenfield-datacenter-in-the-node-pole/ (http://thenodepole.com/2015/06/04/kncminer-to-build-new-20mw-greenfield-datacenter-in-the-node-pole/)


Spondoolies has released video of their SP50 commercial miner (not for home users and probably only bulk sales too boot) Likely they are 30k a pop at least.

here is the youtube video of them setting up their 'private IPO $$$ farm" first ..then maybe they will let a few SP50's trickle out after its full..the data hall(s)? that is.

What a monster 110 TH miner :) Was posted Oct 7th You Tube video below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgHuyItPUfg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgHuyItPUfg)

What the spondoolies site says about the SP50. No price or availablity yet.

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/products/sp50 (http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/products/sp50)



This was just in today's google search of bitcoin mining  ..below is the link :)

]http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2015/10/20/bitcoin-group-bnktothefuture-attracts-3m-to-fund-investment-in-worlds-first-mining-ipo/] (http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2015/10/20/bitcoin-group-bnktothefuture-attracts-3m-to-fund-investment-in-worlds-first-mining-ipo/)



And then you have Bitmain and other China farms etc we don't know about.



IMHO if all the above comes to past (remember LK at the top of this post? ... they will imho have a large miner data farm also ...with home miners and of course sell chips I'd imagine ..unlike some of the others)

Anyway I bet the difficulty rates DOUBLE at least on this splash before halving of BTC...likely more so..again IMHO.
 Also in the race to be first...you can't be last..so I expect them all to dump about the same time this winter...it is gonna be quite the 'asteroid hit' imho)  


So I see no drop in mining.......centralization ..sure...but probably imho halving will not have a heck of a lot of effect on price imho with the above..

In that MOST data hall mining operations pay out to USD daily to keep the books etc...so a lot of the same 'selling pressure' as these centralized farms ...drive difficulty up and price down ie sideways that we've been seeing all year MAY continue in 2016.

Anyway my bet on price etc is around and after halving a big 'ho hum' and the direction being bitcoin's favorite is 'sideways' on price etc

Hope I'm wrong...but the next round of silliness is gonna happen if any of the above comes thru as they seem to want to state it in the above links again .if legit an realistic on doing such as they are saying in the above companies links I put up.

Then again ...likely I am wrong (chime in here) I did at one time drink the BFL kool aid..(got a refund thru luck) but still ..should caution those who think I know squat with that disclaimer , but above is my opinion at this time ..ie it is gonna get REAL ugly next year difficulty wise in my view! Also in price with the dump of coins to usd in mass.
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