Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is getting stronger based on all data we can gather:

2015 Autumn report:
http://www.coindesk.com/research/state-of-bitcoin-q3-2015/

Google Trends:
https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%2C%20blockchain&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7

Alexa on Bitcoin.org:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/bitcoin.org

Forum Stats:
http://i61.tinypic.com/2w31izl.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/2yuglkn.png

---

---

Current situation: 10/26/2015  & my forecast for the future

http://i57.tinypic.com/2642c0g.png

When you have spikes like this - that means a new bot maker found a way to break trough the filters.

Shit, you are right, I never thought that bots make thousands of account just for sabotage. This pretty much screws up the statistics.

But i`ve checked the pageviews,nr of posts, nr of topics, and those 3 are correlated, while this one isnt correlated with that, so yea probably bot activity.

Looking at how much "people" registered here in this forum is no indication of how Bitcoin is doing. Account farmers and trolls may have hundreds of accounts to spam with or farm signature campaigns.

Actually it is if you drop the other data.

A person has its limits too, and not even a bot can do that inifnite times before they run out of IP addresses or whatever.

So without a reference point, just looking at the growth curve, we can say that the other data (due to high correlation) is good info, but yes the account registration is not good data.

I hope the forum will have better filters in the future.

I actually used these stats in 2011 until the first spam account waves. I used to interpret it to mean  that BTC is not dead yet.

These stats just mean signature campaigns are paying more , which correlates with how many accounts are created for farming purposes.

bots dominate the creation of accounts lately. especially since accounts have gained value due to signature campaigns. easy money as they sell accounts or use them for signature campaigns.

I think we should have a bot only section. It would be interesting to eavesdrop on their plans to take over the world.

Can't these damn bots get blocked somehow by the forum? I mean this is pure BS, having bots registering so many accounts for no matter which purpose. Farming accounts, trolling or whatever.

I expect further increase in accounts created, given that Bitcoin's price seems to be headed north.

Bitcoin is coming back for sure but these stats doesn't help because of bots.

Increase in number of new forum members? May be two things could be possible.
1. Bitcoin getting more adoption.
2. Increas in spammers/scammers. ::)

it's true, because everytime there is this kind of pump, there are the same wall in the same exchange, is the third time that i see the 32 btc wall on kraken for example

must be a bot, the same bot

Increase in the number of accounts doesn't mean an increase in the number of members and of course it doesn't mean that these people will buy Bitcoin.

Maybe I shouldn't admit this, but I have created two dozen accounts on the forum. I'm thinking about creating another dozen soon. And I can't be the only one doing it. Moral of the story, do not equate the number of new accounts with how strong bitcoin is. It's not.

I think that we should not count the quantity but the quality.
I have a feeling that people are creating more and more accounts to sell them after a year or so.
Mostly farmers, but there are also new people that are interested in bitcoin but i think the % is same from the last month.

We can not expect quality to a new comer. But we can insist them to follow forum regulations.
I do not know much about farming.
In the event of new real users come into forum, then some of them will contribute to bitcoin to grow in any sector which is the thing I look from the new users.

Also it seems to me that the average post/person is about 30.

So a person creates an account, posts 30 posts and then quits. These are not signature farmers, these are just newbies who become uninterested with bitcoin, for the moment.

Yes 1 new bitcoin member who stays atleast 5 years with bitcoin is better then 100 new members that stay only 1 week :)

Who says they couldn't be account farmers, most of the account farmers are farming only potential accounts so 1 post every 14 days. So they may appear to be inactive.

All these are new thing and wonder how people are in searching of new bitcoins in each and every methods. New members to this forum must be a good initiative as we need to consider every new account as new person. They are getting educations on bitcoin and making others learning on bitcoin.

Google Trends looks pretty flat.  You need to see this spike like it did during the last two bubbles.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/11/3CUxv.png

Seems about right to me actually.. Price rise --> more interest in bitcoin --> more people find their way to forums to learn about bitcoin.

I guess the spam accounts account for most of the steady line in between the spikes.

Yes. Price raise is the solutions or most wanted situations in all means. Bitcoin can go any where with a price raise. This means all other infrastructure or regulations would come into effect automatically once bitcoin hit higher sustaining price for some period.

 I need to agree. When bitcoin is more attractive then all the required things will come and function automatically as new fund flow will do all the required things. The forum getting new blood which is good news for bitcoin community as new users may turn new investors for bitcoin growth.

Well most of the time, this is the scenario. As the price increases, so is the interest in bitcoin. Also, I don't think that the forum is still a reliable source of information nowadays, but still people can find some good bits of knowledge here.

this is exactly what i was going to say.
there was especially a huge influx of signature farmers last winter as OP noted being a major growth period.

i cant imagine what new users who come to this forum looking for intelligent discussion think when they get here and see dozens of "How Many do you have of Bitcoin and why you her loving so?" threads

I know what that is, Xrumer.

Maybe if you're able to check you would see links in their profiles. Classic low-end SEO, they're so silly.

Well AFAIK the membership numbers in here is not a reliable source of information on how many people are really using bitcoin. Unless the forum will prevent multiple accounts, maybe but then multi accounts are allowed so yea, who knows that half of those accounts are owned by the same person.?

people

Silly thing is, there is one signature farmer who goes on by the names of LoL characters, and that user have a dozen of accounts to post with--posts of which are mostly the same idea only with different wordings. The number of registered users here doesn't correlate to how many users are really there using bitcoins. Most are in it for bitcoins only to be converted to fiat after they got it. ::)

Well that does seem like a possibility on the other hand besides the bot maker I'm sure some of that uptrend is also from new users signing up to the forums and what not.
But yah we need a bot filter to determine actual and bot.

and now for a reliable gauge of public interest in bitcoin

https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7

Yes as the ECJ made bitcoin VAT exempt, looks like the interest is surging.

Also the Q3 report of Coindesk sums it up well:

http://www.coindesk.com/research/state-of-bitcoin-q3-2015/

There is growing interest in Bitcoin, I`ll replace the OP because its misleading.

Probable, but that bot maker could probably hail from exchanges themselves that is why it went undetected, just like the Willy bot. Also, looks like traders are using the hype on the ruling of ECJ on bitcoin to make it look like public interest is rising. That is also possible.

I know everything is going fine and there it is going high but, I still believe it is too early to call it strong trend. Yes it shows "bull" sign and also, it is ok too be optimistic but be cautious.

We're discussing something else sig spammer, if you bothered to read the OP you would've seen its about increase in "people"(accounts)'s increase in interest in bitcoin not bitcoin price or bull/bear market discussion.
Christ seriously?

But unlike previous march towards $300 levels, this time we can see a considerable huge volume of trading make this movement more sustainable than the previous ones. I personally believe this may continue further towards some big prices like $600 by year end.

Nah, it will go back to where it came from.

This is not it. This is not the big price increase we were waiting from. It's more likely that a few miners start manipulating again.


I believe the big price increase will come next year, when the block debate is settled.

The price is falling because too many people were waiting to sell. Once they sold what they want, we can make another attempt to break through the $300 level, which is a real challenge.

Something like that, from observing the markets for years, I can tell that a 2-3 bounce breakout, or reversed head& shoulders pattern is very common in all markets.

It usually rebounced 2 times before it breaks out. It's not rocket science, but many markets behave like this, it has to do something with collective psychology of the traders.

I expect something like this:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2642c0g.png

i think it's because there is a group that is manipulating, always the same people involved, that's why you see always the same range as befoe

if there were a new investors, wave, new fresh money, 300 would have been already broken

I don't know, I still believe this is not a manipulation. I think it will continue growing. I mean with all of the positive news that we had in the last 3 weeks, I think this is different this time.

Of course I hope I am right and that we don't see a drop of $30 by tonight. Then again we are flirting with $300, a very hard to break line in my opinion.

I guess time will tell!

Dont be so sure about that, this growth wave is a 50-60 degree increase, nothing with that angle will last long.

If it were a genuine increase it would have maximum 20-30 degrees angle, that would show sustainability. Yes crypto is volatile so it can be just a jump (some big guys aquiring bitcoin), but there wasnt any special news that would indicate that.

So i think this is just market manipulation by some pump and dump group.

I dont really expect a big breakout until next summer, here were my predictions:

So is my prediction coming true after all:


Sooner than expected, but still, it is a very exciting time!

Yes this has happened so sooner once we noticed new comers to this forum. May be the new blood are more interested to buy bitcoin when the prices are lesser comparatively. Any way these are so good things to happen for bitcoin and our bitcoin community for ever.

I dont think this price increase is from newbies buying bitcoin.

Because the bitcoin membership is not increasing that drastically. I think some big rich guys trying to buy bitcoin before the financial system collapses.

He`d rather pay 50% more for bitcoin , just to aquire it, instead of letting his bank account get wiped out by  some bail-in.

Yes this will going to happen very soon as i think we will more higher price before this Christmas i think it will be stable above $400-$450 or maybe will cross $500 this time and this will be Christmas gift for us.

lets hope the bitcoin community will keep on rising and will be bigger than ever before

I think that i am part of this "60% probability: Bitcoin will reach 400$ before 2016"
Only on October the price has been increased for more then 100 dollars.
So i think that will end by 350 this month, and probably 400 by the end of November

Funny thing is that its counterintuitive.

You would thing this:

More people find bitcoin by google search -> More people join the forum -> More people buy bitcoin -> Price goes up

When actually in reality this happens:

Investors get interested/Traders try to manipulate the market -> Price goes up -> Bitcoin gets mentioned by the media or other means -> Greedy people look for money making methods -> They join bitcoin

Also hoping for $500 by Christmas. But do you guys think that the price would go down around that time? People might sell BTC to buy Christmas gifts.

You cannot know that, there is no data that would support that claim.

People could buy gifts with bitcoin too, especially in 2nd or 3rd world countries where bank transfers and card payments cost alot. There are many stores that accept bitcoin and ship worldwide.

Its easy as that.

(But I really doubt people will spend their bitcoins at all, if it gets to 500$, the 500$ bitcoin is the gift itself :D)

I'm hoping people will give BTC as christmas presents.

The more awareness and invested interest the better.

Hence the "hoping." A guy can dream.


However, bitcoin isn't that common with 2nd and 3rd world countries. I live in the Philippines and you can only talk about btc among people who are at least college level and are interested in advancements in computer science / technology or financial investments, and that's probably less than 10% of the country.

Still more common than where I live. People here are just the ultimate sheeple.

For instance my currency vs GOLD lost about 70% of its value in the last decade, and not even the stock market went up to cover the investors. This was under 6-7% interest rates.

Now the interest rates are ~1%, hyperinflation will come, and the sheeple better learn quick about bitcoin or they will get robbed again.

 :D, nice one

Bitcoin never left. It just went into hiding so the morons that are here for quick bucks would leave. The real believers that understand the technology and know it will be 100K in 10 years keep buying. Bitcoin gave them the gift of buying sub 200 Bitcoin once again and now they are holding and laughing while their purchasing power increases.

Well I`m here for the quick buck, but that doesnt mean that I dont believe in bitcoin. I would never sell my bitcoins, only in extreme cases.

But I would shop some of them later on. Bitcoin really gives us a mystical experience, because its an invention so new that we dont really appreciate it that well.

The first PC users were amazed at the possibilities, while now people take PC for granted. Kindenganden kids have mobile phones and a PC so its really a basic tool for now.

Even the caveman appreciated his first hammer. It's called evolution.

I like the way you put it. But like all other new inventions, its first few decades could make or break it.

Well there is demand for bitcoin no doubt, either people know it, or they dont even realize it, how much they need it. Or they might not know about bitcoin yet.

Bitcoin needs bigger marketing ASAP.

About the increasing number of users,
I think that most of them are for spamming.
And we see how many users are brand new and the purpose is for spam, but they get banned/deleted quickly.
Maybe another thing is that many people get infected by a virus and the hacked asked for bitcoin.

Well there is a flat line in interest for bitcoin for now, but one people see the high price again, they might be changing their minds.

There are many people that left bitcoin, that might return if they see the price increase. Give it 1 more month and we shall see what happens.

Bitcoin passed $300 and now its time for $400. I pray to reach it by christmas... A santa gift from bitcoin to us

Definitely, keep believing in it and it will happen.

Its all a belief game, if people belive hard enough, then they will buy from it and then it will go up

Maybe that's the point of these high pump that are recently.
Those one who left i think that will re-join again because of price.
For the new people to join need motivation and lots of places to spent these bitcoins(like amazon, ebay, walmart ...)

The sentiment right now is very good. I don't see a reason why the price shouldn't reach $400 at the end of this year. I have bought the amount of coins I wanted, so I can sit back and ejoy the rally.

Yes this is when this adrenaline kicks in and excitement suddenly is coming back. :D
We just need one big trigger that let the price skyrocket and Bitcoin again will attract buyers and investors like flies looking for shit.

I am seeing constant good news on coindesk, so it was about time the price reacted to it.

It took longer than expected, but we all expected this to happen, and the future will be even more exciting.

See the coindesk price now, it's linear line lol.
There is also a poll there and i am excited to see the result
http://www.coindesk.com/poll-what-will-bitcoins-price-be-at-the-end-of-2015-2/
I think bitcoin is becoming stronger than the last year :)

Yep i think its because the chinese capital controls.

But it can be a mixture of the VAT ruling, the Winklevoss exchange, and other blockchain startup publicity.

The google trends high a new high between 1-7 november, now the interest is going down.

So many opportunists only looking for bitcoin when the price goes up. Thus we need the price to be high in order to find more people.

This is normal human behaviour.
Same thing is going on with stocks and other stuff as well.
Increase in value, meaning something being worth more, especially when it rides up crazy, it attracts attention.
And the same on the way down. Losing value means losing attention.

The google trends is a lag indicator, since its going down it really did mirror the Bitcoin price.
Either way the awareness helped now we just have to wait for the next big event and perhaps a few interesting ones like Bitcoin Black Friday before halving.

People are interested in a price bubble and want to get rich quick. There is nothing wrong with that. The price will go up slowly as adoption grows. The slow rise of price is good for the value store of bitcoin and also as an investment. If the price is too volatile, people will not buy bitcoin as investment.