Bitcoin Forum

Alright folks. It appears to me that we have just witnessed the first golden cross in the history of Bitstamp (I went all the way back to 2011). From my understanding, a true golden cross only occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average while BOTH averages are trending upwards. Over the past two years we have had the 50 DMA cross above the 200 DMA, but both of those times the 200 DMA was trending downwards. Having one average moving up while the other continues downward is obviously much less bullish then both moving up together.

This time, as of literally this day of October 27, 2015, we have our first Golden Cross. Not by much though. The 200 DMA has only been moving upwards for about 10 days now. However, that still counts.

I'd also like to point out that volume has been very strong on Stamp during this most recent surge versus the previous. I'm sure some of this relates to them stealing some market share from Finex, but still more volume on the exchange that I feel is the best gauge of price is positive. Also, the bottom of the chart shows that accumulation has been much more impressive versus the previous rise. Also bullish, and something that needs to be noticed.

All I can say is that the stars appear to be aligning. I like my HODL odds.


http://i66.tinypic.com/2rmqgk2.png

Moon confirmed :)

Is this real life?

It is, back when Satoshi invented bitcoin. ;) My holdings are doing pretty fine. :D


Or is this fantasy?

are we rich yet ?

Don't be an abercrombie clone, they have shit clothing. Being nouveau riche will buy you everything in your wildest dreams. Ignore status is not far away, just sayin.

Please forgive me :"(

Didn't you hear? Willy has been reincarnated. This time he's working from Chinese, unregulated exchanges with zero fees.

Wei Li seems to be the appropriate name given that the owners are now Chinese. ;) Massive trading volumes on China since the first greens.

Let it flourish, whatever it is. Don't bite the hand... Criticizing or whatever in this market doesn't provide fuel, just shit. Don't you see that far-away folks are biting in a large way? Let them come plus many more of them.
USA Bitch! No not really, but moon is decent and accepted. Damn near 310$

I'll tolerate you for now, but you might get a shock soon and then we'll tell the course.

I'll have to take your technical analysis at face value that it is the first golden cross in the history of Bitcoin.
As investopedia says
-
As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes . Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.

Technicians might see this cross as a sign that the market has turned in favor of the stock.
-
In other words this is the definition of a bullish state.

TIL about golden crosses, thank you OP, very interesting.

Too many good things have happened in the last 2 weeks for this all to be fake. Too many pointers like this golden cross. All of this looks very legit. There is some real power in this uptrend.

I would be very disappointed if this ends up in another dump and it seems to me with each passing day that we have a real trend reversal here! It was about the time.

Confirmed.

how long should i go with ur hodl odds ... rent is due soon  :P

The history of Bitstamp was the OP, not the history of Bitcoin. Here's a chart of MtGox 2010-2014 and there almost one in June 2012, but not as clear as this one.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=939.8333339999999&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=1&s=2010-10-28&e=2014-03-29&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=50&a2=SMA&m2=200&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Now have a look at the sentiment back then.  ;D  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/6dEj3Cp.png

am i missing something? Probably i do..

They are like 2% of the volume.. who cares.

that seems debatable.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/ (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/)

A lot of people still regard it as a default price setter for whatever reason. Their weird volume explosion and mountains of buys and sells a while back maybe put a dent in that but at least it's still more believable than anything coming out of China.

In my opinion, you aren't going to get a true and accurate reading on bitcoinwisdom charts in terms of moving averages bc the moving average calculations change every time you change from 1h to 2h, 4h, 12h, 1d, 1w etc. Maybe if you are a member it's different.

Also, you are zoomed in so much nobody can tell which moving average is which or even what exchange you are looking at.

It needs to be 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average...point blank.

When I went back to 2011 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200) what I saw was that the 50 day was already above the 200 day by the time the 200 day started forming and it never fell below it until the 2014 fall.

Hope that helps.

You're welcome. Glad you found it interesting.

Here's a graphic with what I would guess covers the part of the time frame in your graphic you were concerned with (July 2013). As you can see, there was never a crossing of the moving averages.

http://s10.postimg.org/gkla0rtll/image.png (http://postimage.org/)
upload image (http://postimage.org/)

Your right I was assuming it was an average index and misread that title, thanks for the correction.
And unlike Gox I doubt we have a Willy Bot this time around pushing the trend. (Or we have a lot more than 1 this time  ;))

I see it now. It must be Bitcoinwisdom then. Didn't know there was such inaccuracy :)

Yes David, this is real buddy.  ;D


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txqiwrbYGrs

I guess you lose some resolution if you want to see a time interval shorter than the period of your moving average, but the readings aren't really untrue or inaccurate.

What about Huobi?

I'm just a poor boy I need no sympathy,
 Because I'm easy come, easy go,
 Little high, little low.

I think this is what he was going for.  ;) a little {bohemian rhapsody}
This explains my situation when I look at charts on bitcoin.

Good, that you have pointed out that. That is a very positive sign that may attract some investors who until now were still waiting on the sidelines.
We need this cross to be confirmed and then we could get some interesting action, especially if the volume indicator stays at least at the current levels. 

Probably poor choice of words, but what I really meant was your reading may be inaccurate just because of user error and not bc bitcoinwisdom calculates moving averages incorrectly. After all, it's just a simple average.

That's why I use http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gAccDistzi2gVol. You can input the data in a very simple a clear way that gives you results you can confidently read.

I wanted to post an updated chart on the one month anniversary of my original post pointing out the golden cross. I think the picture sums up my thoughts at this point. Please post with thoughts/suggestions/questions.

http://s10.postimg.org/cjc3bsavt/11_28_15.png (http://postimage.org/)
how to screenshot on windows (http://postimage.org/app.php)

thanks for the update.
I believe that the retest of what has now become support ($300 line on your chart) is due and that will tell us where we are. I don't expect this line to be broken either. To me it looks like the new range-bounded level has been established around $350 and it will take a longer while to get out of there (volume chart seems to confirm that!). This will slower down the rise of SMA50.

 Didn't know about the golden cross. Thumbs up, I like this analysis

ps I've also notice the horizontal level you talk about which is now providing support where used to be resistance. I shared my thoughts in this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1263134.0 similar conclusion to you I think bitcoin is primed for big moves as a halving mania gathers steam.

Great thread!. It would be nice to keep in on topic.

I would like to know if exist the opposite figure of golden cross: something as both MAs crossing down while going down and marking the beginning of a bear market?

Could we see historically one or more of these crosses to watch that effectivily it preceeded a strong bear market?

Thank you! I agree and hope to keep the conversations here valuable and of higher quality than you generally get in the speculation section.

The opposite of a golden cross is called a death cross. I would argue that a death cross means a lot less than a golden cross because the stock market and bitcoin both have shown a tendency to go up over time. This means that if you sell because of a death cross during a generally rising market that has had a standard correction what you have just done is sold towards the bottom. However, if you get a death cross in a market that has looked weak for a long period of time such as a year or so then that might signal a top. It's always nearly impossible to tell what will happen next, but the sort of things I just mentioned at least help me make decisions and are better indicators than using no indicators.

Bitcoin has not had many death crosses because it has generally gone up over time, but there was one in September 2014 at around a $500 price. From there it took over a year to get back to that level. Theoretically, you could have seen the death cross coming a couple weeks in advance and sold at about $500 then waited for the golden cross to form and bought back at $300 in late October 2015. That would have been a great trade.

Here is a link that goes back to show the death cross last year...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730zigDailyzczsg2014-05-01zeg2015-12-06ztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gAccDistzi2gVol

wow, the golden cross was spot on. bitcoin has been on the rise for the last 16 months. price was @ $280. almost quadrupled. nice find, respect.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A5R_4ro0FTI/UDuI2xHVu9I/AAAAAAAAAmo/hNCSLjkhHOo/s1600/Logo-Golden-Cross.jpg