Bitcoin Forum

I saw that the payout will halve, does this mean the price will double? :o shouldn't we invest?

i'm confused. 

No, you should not invest before the market.

Do that only if in your mind bitcoin 10 years from now is still solid in your daily life.

Thank you.

Halving of the payouts will only make it harder to mine bitcoins, which in the long run *may* make them more valuable.
The mining process is getting harder all the time anyway, so the miners are continuously increasing their efforts.

It's not an important event, really.

I don't think harder payouts will make them more valuable, I do however think that the new round of money printing the central banks are planning will make the value rise though.

Halving of the block rewards will not raise the value of bitcoin too much IMHO, and having that happening near Christmas will not helps to.
Probably we can see a really small upward trend but not much more than 5-10% from actual value, so I don't expect BTC raise over 12$ in next weeks

I sure hope not. I'd like to belive were past the point when the value magically doubles or crashes. Were propably not.. but during 2012 we've seen the price go up by a factor of 3x. The next year 2013 I personally doubt we'll see as big growth, perhaps 2x at most. This is good, the more stable bitcoin becomes the more useable it will seem to buisnesses.

Assuming the btc market has a free flow of information regarding the timing of the halving, the market participants probably will price the halving into their purchase and sale decisions.  This might be part of the explanation for the upward trend in btc price we have seen this year.
Everyone knows that the halving is coming, so they decide today, in advance of the event to buy or sell btc.

Yes.

No.

Happy to help.

If santa was to accept bitcoins then the price would rise!!

Really though, the value will increase by not inflate to an extra proportional rate  :'(  However, for christmas i think I'll buy few 10's of bitcoins :)

~Reall blue

You are suspecting that people will be trading or spending their coins or cashing out to pay for gifts?

Both December 2010 and 2011 rose between the beginning of the month and Christmas.   Then exploded for the last week.

Yes, I think both of them


I you take the price from mid November in 2010 price dropped of 20-30% in the weeks before Christmas, then rose to a +5% in the last week.
In 2011 price actually doubled in the same period, but we came from a long dropping period after the big jump of June (price at 31 Dec are still less than half of the price at 1st of sept).
This year we came from a 2-3 months stability period, at least in BTC terms (price from sept had a variation in a 25% range, in 2011 was in the 80% of  and in 2010 was over 450%).

The block reward is the amount of BTC that a miner gets for being the one to produce the block. This amount will be cut in half in a few weeks. Halving the reward means that the increase in the amount of BTC available will be lower, not the total amount of BTC. Please understand that bitcoins that have been "mined" never go away (unless they are lost). Bitcoins are never used up.

Also, consider that the block reward (50 BTC) is tiny compared to the amount of BTC in circulation (10 million BTC). If halving the reward does has any effect, it will be very small or occur over a long period of time.

just a few months ago BTC was $5 now it is > $10 I think a lot of the market has already factored in the reward halving

remember also the market sets price - not miners

My answer is yes.(((((((((((((optimistic))))))))))))))))

I don't know about soon but it will double at some point. I don't think it will even out till we get really close to the finish of mining.

What you need to be looking out for are people trying to get out of mining. You might find really cheap gear or cheap bitcoins coming on sale very soon. You are looking for the dip before the rise. Just my 2BTC.

+1

It was stable at the $5 plateau for quite a while through the spring and then over the summer moved up to another plateau roughly twice that level,
no doubt due, at least in part, to anticipation of the reward halving. From this new plateau, where we currently are, it is perhaps just as likely to turn
down as to keep going up...  if people are expecting it to double from where it is at now, and it doesn't, then it may be more likely to move down
for a time before coming back up. 

And with the whole ASIC stuff expected to be coming out soon it is really anyone's guess...
the only certainty is uncertainty.       ;)

^this.

Bitcoin is currently inflationary. If utilization was steady, bitcoin would be dropping in value slowly. The rate of inflation is what's being cut in half. I expect a drop from the overhyped halving, then a slow rise as utilization continues to outpace inflation, albeit by a higher rate after the halving.

So in the short-term might be spike, because of holidays then a decrease. But then again with the release of ASIC allowing for greater hashrates with less variable cost, who knows what might happen?

Take for example, the 1.5THash/s BFL rig, it costs $30k now, I made some estimates;
http://tinylink.net/BtcCalc_THash/s

~Reall blue

My line of thinking is similar to that of coindiver, perhaps there has already been an increase in the price in anticipation of the event, and many people will be disappointed that there is no big increase in price (amount of mined bitcoins in the short run is low compared to the total stock which determines the price), causing a price drop.

In the end, its all speculation, we'll just have to find out...

I know I do a lot of Christmas shopping with BTC.. Thank you BTCbuy...