Bitcoin Forum

So a lot of people here are agree we may have a new bubble forming in the coming months
But everybody disagree about the top

So I make a remake of this poll (pretty accurate for the time)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264628.0

Most analysts seem to be wrong, so I count on the wisdom of the crowd  ;D

If this is a remake of 2013 then the real epic rally won't come for another 6 months or so. Yet, given the droning on of the last two years coupled w/ the ability to buy coins all across the world (unlike 2013) and every other market upgrade that has happened and will continue to happen, it could be an upwardly mobile choppy next few years. Perhaps a grandiose rocket lift-off that just keeps going for 3-5 years that will blow everyone's mind. The fun part is no one knows and even the pros can't call this one's landing zone.

You're right, I have to add the option "no bubbles before 6 month"

There is no bubble to burst this time as this recent increase is solid and on permanent basis because situation is not same as it was then.Bitcoin has more adoption with some legislative moral support and recognition and large remittance market so price will be stable this time.

Because of threads like this bulls will be out of money when this correction finally bottoms out.

Is there still big holders who could cash out ?
Is there still speculators ?
Is there people who could enter in bitcoin ?

If one of these answers is YES I don't see how we could avoid volatility and a new bubble. Even mature markets like gold or real estate have their bubble too.

That doesn't mean this is one that just means there will be another one.

Once your last questoin starts happening we'll see one hell of a bubble.

This poll is too bullish, I add a bearish option

I don't consider this to be a bubble of any kind. It's just expected movement caused by increased support and influx of very good news that lately came.
If the bubble happens, i'm guessing it will be sometime next year, and it could be a big one, but doubt it will crash as fast as that in 2013.

well we already reached the top price in my opinion it wont go anywhere more than 410 dollars the only change is negative right now in my opinion

I don't think we've hit the top yet, or if we have at least for the last time.  The market is a little scared at the second, but  doesn't seem like it wants to stay lower than 400 for more than a little bit.  In the next day or two I think we'll be heading back to 500, whether or not we break through and keep going is anybody's guess.

Why are you so negative about the future of bitcoin ? In 2013 bitcoin reached $1000 without making the cover of The Economist. And it was 2 years ago.

Nice question, I voted for "no buble, just stabilizing". It's just my opinion, or it's just that i would prefer it's just a real rise of price and not a bubble. But if I'm wrong and this is a bubble, I would like to know more how much will fall after bubble snap?

I try a scenario for fun:

- falling to $300 tomorrow or the next week
- oscillating in the $3xx during the month... boring.
- last low in the $200
- then start of the new bubble in january/feb, until $6000 or something like that
- and then collapse to $1000 during the rest of the year "bitcoin is now dead"

Or maybe just sticking to $666 forever ;D

Voted 3000.

First bubble ~30 *8 = Second bubble ~240 *5 = Third bubble ~1200 *3 = ~3600.

8, 5, 3, is Fibonacci sequence in reverse (perhaps 13, 21, 34 etc came earlier in Bitcoins development).

Bitcoin loves Fib ratios.

I like that :)

besides, for now we seem to have a nice gauss curb with 3000 or 4000 as a top

More of this fucking brain washing. Bitcoin is nothing more than a way to fuck people out of money. This price chart after this recent pump/dump looks just like your typical shitcoin pump/dump. There's money to be made here, but please stop the fucking bullshit about how btc is going to be worth thousands someday. Enough.

It allows transmission of data and value with no borders or boundaries, securely, without a middle man, and doesn't need anyone's permission, and it does so for little to no fees, it's open source, and there's only going to be 21 Million of them.  Bitcoin will easily be worth thousands.  Please stop the trolling about how BTC is just a scam.  It has already grown 3 million percent since its inception only 6 years ago when it was worth $0.001.  Hello?  McFly? Do you understand the words Exponential Growth!?

An AK47 is just a pile of wood and metal. It's the people who use it who do all the damage. Same goes for BTC's present condition. It needs to get into the hands of those who have a proper use for it and then it can flourish. Unfortunately they might continue to be scared away by the powerful minority who ravage it at will on the markets. That is of course their human right but they hold the price cards even after all this progress. Hopefully the cavalry will come from those who are beavering away with useful applications for it but perhaps the clock is ticking.  

As demand grows, coordinated dumps are much more difficult to maintain.  The rich and powerful can't hold the price cards forever.  Eventually the market will grow so big that it will gobble up the sell walls until there's none left

While I am a long-term bull, I think this rally has peaked out at $500.
We will have another rally post block reward halving.  :)

I would guess a top of $4000. We are ready to see a new high this time. Let us keep our fingers crossed for no more flash crash before halving.

The top of the bubble depends on the price rise. The quicker the rise, the lower the top. If the price rises slowly, the top could be over $10k.

i think this will be splitted in two bubble, it can increase another time, then huge stagnation, before the right time before the halving, and then the real bubble begins

the real bubble have a potential to break 10k, this pre-bubble can break the last ATH, but i think it will stop before it because otherwise nothing will ever stop this pre-bubble if it break the 1200 ath

Highly doubt we are prepared to talk about 10k prices within a 1-3 years, but over 1k is definitely an option, if not this, then next year probably.

Sharp movements like this recent one is an excellent chance to increase your bitcoin holdings, because support levels are low on such high spikes,
and if you manage to sell high, you should probably have a safe spot for re-buy one things cool down.

I think that we are looking at the new hight during next year. Everything is going in this direction. The halving, the news about Bitcoin, media attention, number of users growing, etc. We will definitely break current highs and set new records.

Each last bubble people were not surprised by the top itself, but more by the velocity of the rise. It was always values people were expecting, but more in 2 or 3 years of regular rise.
Regular rise don't exist much in the world of bitcoin. The "over 1k" if it happens, could be as soon as next week.

And nobody will sell, waiting for the 10K. Me included. Before it crashes again. ;D

According to the specifics that I am watching, I see Bitcoin reaching $3600 in no time if this is a bubble.
The charts are showing the real picture, so we should stop guessing and see what they are indicating.

Voted for: "No bubble, just stabilizing here for a while". No problem for me, I've bought low enough for a median price of roughly $380 to be (slightly) profitable.

I think we won't see $10000 or $100000 or even more in the first two or three years, as it 'requires' recognition and adoption by a significant portion of the general public.

Next bull run will lift the price to be over $5k. But the price has to stay around $400 for a few months.

I believe we are in preparation for a coming bubble.Maybe 2 or 3 bubbles.And each will top the one before. These bubbles again will rise totally crazy and the top could be in 5 digits for the last of those 2 or 3 bubbles.2016 could become a very very interesting year. Helmet and seatbelt should be must have gentlemen!

There will be no bubble this time.If we look at and observe carefully the current position of Bitcoin and adoption and its usage for different things.I will say rise will be on permanent basis.

If this bull run slowly, we might see $10k in a few years. It also depends on the wide usage of bitcoin. If more shops accept bitcoin, it is good for the bitcoin price.

You can't until your account gets upgraded from newbie level. It takes 30 posts, and 4 weeks to get to junior member level. You have to wait a fixed time and make enough posts to get upgraded. I can't remember what member level you need for voting privileges, it might be member level, or it could be full member level. The ranking of member levels is:

newbie
junior member
member
full member
senior member
hero member
legendary member

Also i have same problem.

I think we can comfortably settle for a four-digit value as of first semester of new year (Jan-March 2016) as of now. The ATH could be anywhere above that. The market is totally different than it was in 2013.

The price might reach $1000 in the middle of next year due to block reward halving. If it rises slowly, it could be even higher.

In new bubble top will be 2500$ at least.

well we have already reached the top now we will have to wait till the halving in year 2016 then the price might increase significantly once again

From the options given I will choose $2000 to be the next ATH when there is another bubble forming. Perhaps it will happen somewhere in 2017. That's what I aim for.

Nobody knows for sure, but my guess is close to $1000 similar to the '13 bubble.

I don't think this bubble popped yet, we have t entered bearish territory at all.

We just need some time to refuel.

I voted 750, but I think I have to adjust my expectation to 1800.

This run is not over yet imo, we are just building up steam ago and continue rolling down the tracks to bitcoin acceptation.

Next top would be $750. The recent price run is quite steady, not like the one in late 2013. It is operated by experienced traders.

The next peak will be around $650-750. Then the price will come down to $450 to consolidate. The price rise could be due to block chain size agreement.

The next bubble i think that will become the last bubble and that is the $400, i hope for this :(

Between 4000-8000$ for the end of 2016.

The bubble might start only in 2016 before the halving event when people will start buying like crazy though thats just my opinion

Boah I would party that like hell!
Pretty brave prediction my friend.Let's proceed that price will not have changed much until the end of this year.Lets say it will be 350.
To end at $4000 in december 2016 that would be a total increase of around 1040%!So a bit more than 10x.
How likely is that to happen? Not that much I guess. But also not impossible.

If Bitcoins aren't 100K in 10 years I'll be too depressed to do anything with my life. It's pretty much my only chance at early retirement. Also my only chance to hope that when im old I will have money because I think society is going to collapse and the state will not be able to pay pensioners.

If you want to retire in 10 years, you need to buy about 20 bitcoins at least to have a comfortable retirement life. There is a thread about how many bitcoin you need when you retire.

It wil also depend on how much the bitcoin will be worth in 10 years.

Hopefully 5 times higher as it is right now

The bubble is already over, and never got to $500.


Without any new news to drive it, I don't see it getting back anywhere near $400 for the rest of this year, or managing to stay above $300. I'm inclined to bet on it dropping back to the $250 ballpark by end of the year, as the BTCC-inspired "buying frenzy" is over.


 I don't think it'll drop back under $250 much, if at all - enough new blood bought in that the real support floor probably shifted up a little.



 I anticipate the next major move will start a month or two before the halfing.
 I don't anticipate $500 in that move, but won't be totally shocked to see $500 or a bit over at the peak of that bump, and I DO anticipate the post-halfing floor will kick up quite a bit - likely $350-$400 range.

LOL the price at the time of halving will be much higher than $350.  Are you kidding me?  We are hanging out at around $325 right now.  The last halving saw Bitcoin run up many many multiples.  There's still like 8 months left.  That's a very long time for Bitcoin

i cannot predict it properly but im guessing it wont be EXTREMELY high, maybe around 500-600?. because if the even were to increase a bit, the majority of holders would sell while the demand for btc would stay roughly the same.

No new bubble any time soon.

We can't predict anything with Bitcoin right now, for all we know in 3 months there could be a WW3.

The latest bubble was out of nowhere, I still think we can get close to $400-450 by the end of the year.

Yes. Nobody knows where the last bubble comes. Maybe because the price has been around $240 for too long.

I'm going for $500

and then it will go back down to a steady 400 - 450

Just me speculating here.

The last bubble was due to BTCC (and probably other Chinese exchanges) taking direct deposits for the first time in quite a long time, feeding a "buy" frenzy out of China.

 It's over, now the current news is overall negative (the EU tighten regulation stuff) and will probably drive Bitcoin back down again over the next few months - I'm guessing $250 will be the new floor, as the Chinese frenzy DID get a lot more folks into Bitcoin and probably most of those folks will want to hold on for a level they can resell at a profit.

I don't see it as the clock is ticking, as if there's only some abstract frame of time to get bitcoin adopted.  It's simply a matter of time.  If it continues to exhibit exponential growth, it won't take long.  No damage can really be done to bitcoin by anyone.  People do stupid and illegal things with all currencies.  The fact that stupid and illegal things are done with bitcoin is just evidence of its perceived value.  I don't see anyone being scared away by some powerful minority.  I see a 30 Million Percent increase in 6-7 years, and it's still going.  Even if whales can influence the price up or down with dramatic coordinated moves, they can still only influence the price direction.  And those big corrections put Bitcoin in the media, attracting new fish.  The Silk Road story was supposed to destroy Bitcoin.  And the price dropped real quick, only to rebound and slingshot in an upwards direction

500 is not even 100% that not a real bubble, the last ath was a rally bubble, the new bubble must confirm a new ath to be called so otherwise i would just call it a pump

still it will be tough to match the last ath by the look of how the things are going

In 2013, the top of the price was about 12 times of the starting price. If the new bubble starts from $230, 12 times of that is $2760.

there is no bubble in near future (1 month ) we will see next in late December or early January that may take it to 600$/BTC

I see bitcoin stable at $300 for several months, perhaps at the middle of next year we will see a little rally to $800-1000, and its new floor will be $500-600 next year.

There is not any bubble because price are stable over 320 $ and it will continue this trend for some period.At the start of next year there will be seen again some rise in price which will be steady till halving and then huge high in price.

As long as the price are under 1000 $ there is no bubble as this is just pure speculation and investment in bitcoin.I will begin to think about this if price reaches over 1000 $ in very short time but if it increases gradually then I say it is going good way.

I agree on this. The bubble is not here at this moment. It will come when we surpass 800/900 usd. In my perception a fair value of bitcoin is 350 usd.

B9tcins true value is no where near 359 in my opinion I'd say 650 would be a reasonable estimate considering the new amount 9f bitc9jn flowing in right mate ??

On what grounds to you base that?

I for one think 280 USD is a good price for bitcoin. I base that on the fact the before the bubble 190, we we right on track. Then 2 years passed and this would be a good value in terms of progress.

if there will be another bubble the max will be about a thousand imo

I don't see a bubble coming this time. Just a steady rise with high ups and correctoins.

The future is bright my friends.

The top was $502 for Bitstamp. Now we are waiting new bubble and the new top will be $700. It'll happen in January 2016 so prepare yourself.

The price is over $400 again. It seems a new wave of rise is coming. The price could reach $500 by the end of the year.

I agree, can see this sort of scenario
I am certain (in my own mind) 2016 see ATH for bitcoin, possible in 2500 range

I think it's very possible for us to see a new ATH in 2016. I only don't think it will be in the $2500 range. I am more tthinking at $1200-$1500 at most.

$700 probably,
I doubt Bitcoin will ever go above $1000 again unless there is a mass adoption.

I think that the bubble will not go much higher than 500 or 600. But, as always, I hope I am wrong!

Perhaps this raise we are in is it.

there was not a mass adoption last time we went to 1200, but we did it, and the last pump also was not driven by any huge adoption, but we touched 500 easily

it's beyond me how everyone is still thinking that 1k is unreachable or an hard goal, it does not even matter, 1k is only the beginning if you look at the whole picture

Would it be considered a bubble if bitcoin price continued upwards with this same pace since moving on from the 230's?

I also see it, once we pass previous ATH it's blastoff!

I also believe that will happen in 2016 around halving

Maybe, maybe not!!!
If it goes above some stable prices to be considered, like $500, without any reasons, then it should be considered a bubble obviously...
If it comes to the top, we should definitely see it more than $2500 if we are talking about Bitcoin's history repeating itself...

outrageous calls of new ATH's

ATH will happen in the next year. The bitcoin price has consolidate for some time. It will go up soon.